Handicapping Super Bowl 59

Every year,about this time, I make my Super Bowl picks. Here is a summary of my predictions, as evidenced by previous newsletters.

Super Bowl	Pick	Outcome
57	Under 47.5	W
56	No bet
55	Tampa Bay +3.5	W
55	Under 57.5	W
54	Under 53	W
53	Under 56.5	W
52	Phily +4.5	W
51	Under 58	W

 

As I’ve explained in many previous newsletters, my method is simple. I look at average points scored and allowed for each team over the last regular season. Here are those statistics for Super Bowl 59.

Team	Scored	Allowed
Philadelphia	27.24	17.82
Kansas City	22.65	19.18

 

I then calculate the points scored by each team as the average of the points scored per game and the points allowed of the opposing team. In this case that would be:

Philadelphia: (27.24 + 19.18)/2 = 23.21

Kansas City: (22.65 + 17.82)/2 = 20.24

You can see I predict the Philadelphia Eagles to outscore Kansas City by 2.97 points. Let’s call it an even 3. As I write this, on January 27, Kansas City is a 1.5-point favorite. This is a huge difference from my opinion of Philadelphia being a 3-point favorite. Why the huge difference? I think the square-betting public is enamored with the Kansas City Chiefs and the so-called “Mahomes Magic.” I admit I didn’t add a magic factor to my math. However, the numbers speak for themselves. Any magic factor should be rolled into them. Thus, I make Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 a solid pick! I will fill this newsletter with pictures from a 2019 trip to Phily to help you remember which side to bet on.

How about the over/under, you might ask. Adding the expected points scored by each team we get 43.44. The current over/under line is 49.5. Again, a huge difference from the market. I honestly don’t know why the line is so high on this game. So, under 49.5 is absolutely a firm pick.

I would like to conclude with the same disclaimer I make every year that I am just saying these are good bets. That doesn’t mean they are going to win. If you must bet, based on my advice, please do so in moderation and keep it fun.