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Gambling FAQ
Blackjack
Do inexperienced players, especially in blackjack, put the whole table at a disadvantage?
Not really. While it's easy to recall instances when a poor player took a crucial card from the dealer, affecting everyone negatively, we often overlook moments when that player unexpectedly benefited the table. This selective memory supporting our biases is known as 'confirmation bias.' Over time, troublesome players can just as often be a help as a hindrance, so it’s best to ignore them.
Why advise against accepting 'even money' on blackjack when the dealer shows an ace? Surely that's a guaranteed win!
Actually, there's a 69.1% probability that the dealer doesn't have a blackjack, meaning you could secure the full payout of 3-2. (1.5 × 69.1% = 103.7%.) This exceeds the guaranteed 100% from opting for even money. Since you’ve already made the choice to gamble by playing, don’t shy away from risk now and give up that extra edge.
In blackjack, there are instances when the dealer inadvertently shows their hole card. What advantage does this provide to the player?
The player gains an advantage of about 10% +/- 0.5%, depending on the particular game rules. Here’s the strategy for cases when the dealer reveals both cards. This differs from the double exposure strategy, where the player incurs losses on ties.
Craps
What is your opinion on dice control?
For those unfamiliar with this topic, various books, tutorials, and courses claim that it's possible to gain an advantage in craps with a carefully executed toss that influences certain outcomes, like reducing the chances of rolling a seven to less than 1 in 6. Personally, I'm quite skeptical of this notion. I've yet to encounter solid proof that anyone can consistently manipulate the dice. There’s considerably more profit to be made from selling books and lessons on the subject than from actual success.
Roulette
If a roulette ball landed on red for the past 20 spins, what are the odds it will land on black on the next spin?
The chances remain the same for black, sitting at 47.37% on a double-zero wheel, attributed to 18 black numbers out of a total of 38.
I believe you may have misunderstood the previous question. The odds of hitting 21 reds consecutively are (18/38)21= 1 in 6,527,290. Clearly, the odds should heavily favor black.
That’s a valid point, but it doesn’t affect the outcome. The likelihood of 20 reds followed by a black remains unchanged. In games like roulette, each spin is independent and does not rely on past results.
I've devised a strategy to outsmart casinos in roulette! Begin with a modest wager on an even-money bet, such as red or black. If you lose, double your bet on the same color. Continue doubling until you eventually win. Eventually, you’ll profit from your initial wager with this method. What do you think? Also, I'd appreciate it if you kept this under wraps.
This is likely the most well-known betting system, identified as the Martingale. Gamblers have been implementing this strategy for ages. Unfortunately, like all betting systems, it neither overcomes the house advantage nor softens its impact. The fundamental issue is that eventually, a player may encounter a losing streak where their bankroll can’t support another doubling of the bet.
In your last response, you explained why the Martingale system fails. How about the reverse approach, where you double your bet after each win until reaching a specific goal?
This is termed the anti-Martingale and offers no real benefit either. The occasions when your bankroll dwindles to nothing will surpass your gains when you finally hit your target. Regardless of whether or not you employ a betting system, playing more will inevitably bring your loss-to-bet ratio towards 5.26% in double-zero roulette.
Slots
Where do casinos typically locate their least tight slots?
Generally speaking, the location doesn't play a significant role.
TV Game Shows
On the game show Let’s Make a Deal, there are three doors. To illustrate, assume that two doors reveal goats, while one offers a brand-new car. The host, Monty Hall, selects two contestants to choose a door. Each time, after the players pick, Monty opens a door and shows a goat. Suppose this time, it reveals a goat for the first contestant. While Monty never actually performed this, what if he then provided the other contestant with an opportunity to switch to the remaining unopened door? Should they take the switch?
Absolutely! The key element here is that the host is always guaranteed to unveil a goat. He knows where the car is hidden, allowing him to reveal a goat regardless of the choices made by the players. This situation is often referred to as the 'Monty Hall Paradox.' A lot of the confusion stems from poor framing of the question, specifically neglecting to mention that the host knows the location of the car and consistently shows a goat first. I believe some responsibility lies with Marilyn Vos Savant , who presented the question in an unclear manner. Let’s conceptualize that the car is behind door 1. Below are the outcomes if the player (the second contestant) chooses not to switch.
- Player picks door 1 --> player wins
- Player picks door 2 --> player loses
- Player picks door 3 --> player loses
Now, consider what happens if the player opts to switch.
- If the player chooses door 1 --> Monty shows the goat behind door 2 or 3 --> player switches to the other door --> player loses.
- If the player chooses door 2 --> Monty reveals the goat behind door 3 --> player switches to door 1 --> player wins.
- If the player selects door 3 --> Monty uncovers the goat behind door 2 --> player switches to door 1 --> player wins.
Thus, by sticking with their initial choice, the player possesses a 1/3 chance of success. In contrast, by opting to switch, they enhance their odds to 2/3. Therefore, switching is certainly the advisable move.
For additional insight into the Monty Hall paradox, I suggest checking out the article at Wikipedia .
General
What is the best game to play?
The outcome hinges on the game's rules and your gameplay. Focusing on popular games and assuming you apply optimal strategies while always making the best bets available, I would narrow it down to these four games as the top choices. (The accompanying percentages reflect the risk element of these games, which indicates how much you can expect to lose relative to your stakes, providing a fair evaluation of a game’s value.)
- blackjack (using six decks, the dealer stands on soft 17, doubling allowed after a split, surrender option available, and aces can be re-split) — 0.25%
- craps (3-4-5x odds with maximum allowable odds) — 0.27%
- video poker (9-6 jacks or better) — 0.46%
- Ultimate Texas Hold \"Em — 0.53%
What is your favorite game?
My personal choice would be whichever game presents the least risk at any given casino. That said, the game I find most enjoyable is pai gow (with tiles). I’m not fond of volatility, and pai gow offers a slower pace with many pushes. Furthermore, it’s a complex game that requires understanding and skill to play effectively. I generally find that other players are sharp and enjoyable companions.
What’s your take on my betting system?
Every betting system lacks merit equally. They not only fail to overcome the house edge but also make no impact whatsoever. If a betting system adds enjoyment to your gambling experience, that's perfectly fine. Just don’t fool yourself into thinking it will provide long-term benefits.
Which casino stands out as your favorite in Las Vegas?
The casino that I believe delivers the most favorable odds and overall experience is South Point .
Casino (insert name here) is engaging in dishonest practices. Can you inform your audience about them? I can provide proof based on (insert detailed account of losses here).
Such allegations seldom come with any substantial evidence beyond embellishments. In those rare instances where I do receive specific details, the losses can typically be attributed to simple bad luck. Nevertheless, I have spotlighted instances of cheating at online casinos before when prompted by such claims. Therefore, if you suspect a casino is acting unfairly, please utilize a scientific approach before contacting me; formulate a hypothesis about the potential cheating, gather supporting evidence to confirm or refute that hypothesis, and then analyze the findings. I would be glad to assist with the analysis.
Why do you often come across as pessimistic regarding gambling? Your mathematical strategies seem to drain the enjoyment out of it, impinging on my autonomy.
If you prefer to risk losing more due to errors, that’s your prerogative. All I can do is provide guidance. Whether you choose to take it is completely up to you.
Probability
On the game show Let’s Make a Deal, there are three doors. To illustrate, assume that two doors reveal goats, while one offers a brand-new car. The host, Monty Hall, selects two contestants to choose a door. Each time, after the players pick, Monty opens a door and shows a goat. Suppose this time, it reveals a goat for the first contestant. While Monty never actually performed this, what if he then provided the other contestant with an opportunity to switch to the remaining unopened door? Should they take the switch?
Absolutely! The key element here is that the host is always guaranteed to unveil a goat. He knows where the car is hidden, allowing him to reveal a goat regardless of the choices made by the players. This situation is often referred to as the 'Monty Hall Paradox.' A lot of the confusion stems from poor framing of the question, specifically neglecting to mention that the host knows the location of the car and consistently shows a goat first. I believe some responsibility lies with Marilyn Vos Savant , who presented the question in an unclear manner. Let’s conceptualize that the car is behind door 1. Below are the outcomes if the player (the second contestant) chooses not to switch.
- Player picks door 1 --> player wins
- Player picks door 2 --> player loses
- Player picks door 3 --> player loses
Now, consider what happens if the player opts to switch.
- If the player chooses door 1 --> Monty shows the goat behind door 2 or 3 --> player switches to the other door --> player loses.
- If the player chooses door 2 --> Monty reveals the goat behind door 3 --> player switches to door 1 --> player wins.
- If the player selects door 3 --> Monty uncovers the goat behind door 2 --> player switches to door 1 --> player wins.
Thus, by sticking with their initial choice, the player possesses a 1/3 chance of success. In contrast, by opting to switch, they enhance their odds to 2/3. Therefore, switching is certainly the advisable move.
For additional insight into the Monty Hall paradox, I suggest checking out the article at Wikipedia .