WOO logo

On this page

Bad Beat Jackpot Odds

On this page

Introduction

Bad Beat Jackpot Odds

"Bad beat" is a term that can mean having an outstanding chance of winning a bet, only to still lose. The term can be used in any form of gambling but is most commonly applied to poker. Many poker rooms offer a progressive jackpot for very unlikely bad beats. Various other rules are added to ensure that only surprising bad beats win. Below I present tables of bad beat probabilities, starting with the most liberal rules, and ending with the most stringent. The most stringent rules, the "Bad Beat Type 3", are the most common, in my experience.

Following are the rules for a type 1 bad beat.

  1. Both the bad beat and winning hand must be the best possible combination of five cards. In cases where the same hand can be created multiple ways (for example player has AK and the board shows AAKKQ) the player's hole cards will take priority.
  2. Both the bad beat and winning hand must make use of both hole cards.
  3. A full house must be beaten by a four of a kind or higher.

The rules for a type 2 bad beat are the same as type 1, plus any four of a kind, whether the bad beat hand or winning hand, must contain a pocket pair.

The rules for a type 3 bad beat are the same as type 2, plus a full house may not make use of a three of a kind entirely on the board.

In my experience, is the most common format for bad beat rules is type 3. The additional rule for type 3 makes very little difference, compared to type 2.

The following table shows the probability of each bad beat hand under all three types of rules. The table is based on a ten-player game in which nobody ever folds. The probabilities are for any pair of players meeting the qualifying rules. If you want to know YOUR probability of winning, you should divide the probability in the table by 10.

PL Poland Recommended Online Poker Rooms

View All

100 % up to

600€

100 % up to

1000$

200 % up to

1000$

+25 spins

100 % up to

1000$

Bad Beat Probabilities

Bad Beat Hand Type 1 Type 2 Type 3
Any full house 0.00203329 0.00050305 0.00049508
Full house, three 3's or higher 0.00189512 0.00046978 0.00046204
Full house, three 4's or higher 0.00175159 0.00043444 0.00042728
Full house, three 5's or higher 0.00160333 0.00039706 0.00039028
Full house, three 6's or higher 0.00144965 0.00035741 0.00035145
Full house, three 7's or higher 0.0012936 0.00031767 0.00031266
Full house, three 8's or higher 0.00113492 0.00027775 0.00027355
Full house, three 9's or higher 0.00097379 0.00023772 0.00023445
Full house, three T's or higher 0.00081113 0.00019759 0.00019503
Full house, three J's or higher 0.00064763 0.00015708 0.00015509
Full house, three Q's or higher 0.00048533 0.00011838 0.00011682
Full house, three K's or higher 0.00032561 0.00008130 0.00008033
Full house, three A's or higher 0.00016964 0.00004608 0.00004579
Full house, aces full of 3's or higher 0.00016004 0.00004350 0.00004322
Full house, aces full of 4's or higher 0.00014986 0.00004080 0.00004052
Full house, aces full of 5's or higher 0.00013898 0.00003797 0.00003763
Full house, aces full of 6's or higher 0.00012749 0.00003504 0.00003469
Full house, aces full of 7's or higher 0.00011580 0.00003233 0.00003203
Full house, aces full of 8's or higher 0.00010347 0.00002957 0.00002925
Full house, aces full of 9's or higher 0.00009067 0.00002673 0.00002645
Full house, aces full of T's or higher 0.00007714 0.00002383 0.00002359
Full house, aces full of J's or higher 0.00006286 0.00002064 0.0000204
Full house, aces full of Q's or higher 0.00004793 0.00001738 0.00001721
Full house, aces full of K's or higher 0.00003230 0.00001408 0.00001402
Any four of a kind 0.00001601 0.00001086 0.00001081
Four 3's or higher 0.00001437 0.00000996 0.00000992
Four 4's or higher 0.0000127 0.00000900 0.00000902
Four 5's or higher 0.00001099 0.00000805 0.00000804
Four 6's or higher 0.00000934 0.00000705 0.00000707
Four 7's or higher 0.0000078 0.00000613 0.00000611
Four 8's or higher 0.0000064 0.00000525 0.00000519
Four 9's or higher 0.00000519 0.00000439 0.00000435
Four T's or higher 0.00000414 0.00000359 0.00000357
Four J's or higher 0.00000317 0.00000287 0.00000285
Four Q's or higher 0.00000246 0.00000226 0.00000224
Four K's or higher 0.00000193 0.00000180 0.00000179
Four A's or higher 0.00000157 0.00000149 0.00000147
Any straight flush 0.0000012 0.00000122 0.00000121
Straight flush 6 high or higher 0.00000105 0.00000107 0.00000105
Straight flush 7 high or higher 0.00000089 0.00000091 0.00000090
Straight flush 8 high or higher 0.00000073 0.00000074 0.00000074
Straight flush 9 high or higher 0.00000056 0.00000059 0.00000058
Straight flush T high or higher 0.00000041 0.00000043 0.00000042
Straight flush J high or higher 0.00000028 0.00000027 0.00000027
Straight flush Q high or higher 0.00000012 0.00000012 0.00000012

Methodology

The above tables are the result of random simulations of about 2.5 billion rounds each.

Top 6 Online Poker Bonuses View All

ACR Casino
Players rated ACR Casino 3.2 out of 5 Stars

Sign Up Bonus - Poker

100% up to
$2000

New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+.This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Play Responsibly. This bonus does not appear as soon as you deposit. You’ll need to play real money poker first to release your bonus. You’ll earn $1 increments as you play. Min deposit: $25. For more information about wagering requirement, please contact the Casino customer support.
No Info
Bovada Casino
Players rated Bovada Casino 3.8 out of 5 Stars

Bonus Code

PWB500

Sign Up Bonus - Poker

100% up to
$500

New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+. Your Poker Welcome Bonus will be unlocked in $5 increments for every 150 Rewards Points earned in Poker. Rewards Points are credited upon exiting a cash game table or finishing a Poker Tournament. There is no rollover on unlocked Welcome Bonus funds.
No Info
Klondaika.lv Casino
Players rated Klondaika.lv Casino 2.8 out of 5 Stars

Sign Up Bonus - Poker

100% up to
€2000

New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. Minimum deposit €10. Players need to register a Poker Alias before activating the Welcome Offer. For every 100 Status Points players will receive 1€ real money. 10 Status Points accumulated per €1 rake or fee paid on real money tables.
No Info
Guts Casino
Players rated Guts Casino 4 out of 5 Stars

Sign Up Bonus - Poker

100% up to
€1000

This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. New customers only. T&C's apply. 18+. There is no wagering requirement for the bonus money. For every €25 you rake, you’ll get €5 in bonus money. Your poker bonus is released in batches of €5.
No Info
TigerGaming Casino
Players rated TigerGaming Casino 3.1 out of 5 Stars

Bonus Code

NEWTG

Sign Up Bonus - Poker

100% up to
$1000

New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit: $50. This bonus will be released in stages of $5 each. Every time you earn $50 in rake $5 of your bonus amount will be released until all your bonus funds are released.
No Info
BetOnline Casino
Players rated BetOnline Casino 3.1 out of 5 Stars

Bonus Code

POKER1000

Sign Up Bonus - Poker

100% up to
$1000

New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 18+. This offer is not available for players residing in Ontario. New Customer Offer. T&C’s Apply. 19+. Minimum deposit $50. This bonus will be released in stages of $5 each. Every time you earn $50 in rake $5 of your bonus amount will be released until all your bonus funds are released.

No Info

Further Reading

The video poker variant World Series of Poker - Final Table Bonus features a bad beat jackpot. See my section on that game for more information.

Brian Alspach has a very good page on Texas Hold'em, including a section on the Bad Beat Jackpot at Party Poker.