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Dragon Dragon Baccarat Progressive
Introduction
The Dragon Dragon Baccarat Progressive is a baccarat side bet I first saw at the Gold Coast in Las Vegas on January 25, 2017. It pays based on the combined cards of the Player and Banker hands. Winning hands range from a three of a kind out of four total cards up to a six of a kind.
Rules
- The wager is a flat amount, either $1, $2, or $5, depending on the decision of casino management.
- Wins are based on all cards in the Player and Banker hands.
- Following is the pay table. Wins are expressed on a "for one" basis.
Pay Table
| Event | $1 bet | $2 bet | $5 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Six of a kind | Jackpot | ||
| Five of a kind | 10% of Jackpot | ||
| Double three of a kind | $250 | $500 | $1,500 |
| Four of a kind | $50 | $100 | $300 |
| Three of a kind out of four cards | $25 | $50 | $150 |
Notes:
* Jackpot divided among all players who made the Dragon Dragon bet.
** The two three of a kinds can be mixed between the Player and Banker hands. For example, if the Player had QQK and the Banker had KQQ, it would count.
*** Only four total cards qualify for this win. If either the Player and/or Banker draw a card, then any chance of this win will be lost.
Analysis
Following is my analysis of the Dragon Dragon for $1 and $2 bets. Wins are expressed on a "for one" basis, meaning relative to the bet amount and that wagers are never returned, even on a win. The following table shows the same thing for a $5 bet.
Dragon Dragon Return Table for $1 and $2 bets
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Six of a kind | Jackpot | 5,872,124,160 | 0.00000117 | x |
| Five of a kind | 10% of jackpot | 351,070,863,360 | 0.00007024 | y |
| Double three of a kind | 250 | 616,417,689,600 | 0.00012332 | 0.030831 |
| Four of a kind | 50 | 12,273,961,559,040 | 0.00245558 | 0.122779 |
| Three of a kind out of four cards | 25 | 32,896,683,048,960 | 0.00658144 | 0.164536 |
| Loser | 0 | 4,952,254,270,218,240 | 0.99076824 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 4,998,398,275,503,360 | 1.00000000 | 0.318146+x+y |
Dragon Dragon Return Table for a $5 bet
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Six of a kind | Jackpot | 5,872,124,160 | 0.00000119 | x |
| Five of a kind | 10% of jackpot | 351,070,863,360 | 0.00007089 | y |
| Double three of a kind | 300 | 616,417,689,600 | 0.00012447 | 0.037342 |
| Four of a kind | 60 | 12,273,961,559,040 | 0.00247846 | 0.148708 |
| Three of a kind out of four cards | 30 | 32,896,683,048,960 | 0.00664277 | 0.199283 |
| Loser | 0 | 4,952,254,270,218,240 | 1.00000000 | 0.000000 |
| Total | 4,998,398,275,503,360 | 1.00931778 | 0.385332+x+y |
The return of the fixed pay awards is 31.81% for $1 and $2 bets. For $5 bets, it is 38.18%.
The next table shows the break-even meter (the point at which there is no house advantage), depending on the bet size and number of players, including yourself.
Additional Return per $10,000 in the Meter
| Players | $1 bet | $2 bet | $5 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.877% | 0.939% | 0.375% |
| 2 | 0.939% | 0.469% | 0.188% |
| 3 | 0.626% | 0.313% | 0.125% |
| 4 | 0.469% | 0.235% | 0.094% |
| 5 | 0.375% | 0.188% | 0.075% |
| 6 | 0.313% | 0.156% | 0.063% |
| 7 | 0.268% | 0.134% | 0.054% |
| 8 | 0.235% | 0.117% | 0.047% |
The next table shows the break-even meter, at which point there is no house advantage, depending on the bet size and number of players, including yourself.
Break-even Points
| Players | $1 bet | $2 bet | $5 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $83,168.48 | $166,336.96 | $377,036.89 |
| 2 | $166,336.96 | $332,673.92 | $754,073.77 |
| 3 | $249,505.44 | $499,010.89 | $1,131,110.66 |
| 4 | $332,673.92 | $665,347.85 | $1,508,147.54 |
| 5 | $415,842.41 | $831,684.81 | $1,885,184.43 |
| 6 | $499,010.89 | $998,021.77 | $2,262,221.32 |
| 7 | $582,179.37 | $1,164,358.74 | $2,639,258.20 |