Blackjack Strategy

Mike: Hello! I'm Mike Shackleford from the Wizard of Odds website, and with me today are Angela Wyman, my student, and dealer Dan Lubin. We are here to delve into the strategies of playing blackjack effectively. Over the last quarter of a century, I’ve dedicated myself to educating individuals on gambling, firmly focusing on what is known as the basic strategy for most of that time. In many gift shops throughout Las Vegas, you’ll find cards that illustrate how to handle virtually every blackjack situation based on your hand and what the dealer has revealed.

[silence].

Nonetheless, one critical lesson I've gleaned is that 99% of players simply lack the time or desire to memorize all that information. Expecting them to do so is quite unreasonable. Therefore, for those in that 99% category, I’m going to share the wizard's simplified blackjack strategy. This method consists of just a few straightforward rules that will enable you to achieve 99.8% of the returns you would get from the basic strategy. It’s a way to get close to perfection in your gameplay using a much easier approach.

The first rule, which seems quite fundamental, is that if your total hand value is hard A or less, you must hit. It's quite straightforward. When you hold a total of nine, your next move will be influenced by the dealer's shown card. If the dealer displays a card valued between two and six, you’ll double down, but if they have a seven or higher, you’ll opt to hit. Let’s clarify what constitutes a low versus a high dealer up card. A low up card is anything from two to six, while a high up card ranges from seven to ace. Therefore, with a total of nine, if the dealer reveals a two through six, you double down. If they show a seven or higher, you hit.

Moving on to the next rule, if you hold a total of 10 or 11, which are prime candidates for doubling, you should double down if your hand surpasses the dealer's total. For instance, if I have a hard 10, I will double if the dealer's up card is between two and nine. If the dealer has a 10 or an ace revealed, I will simply hit. The same guideline applies to a total of 11; double down against a dealer’s two through ten and just hit if the dealer's showing an ace.

The following rule pertains to a common scenario that often gets mishandled, known as stiff hands. When your total is between 12 and 16, you should stand if the dealer is showing a small card, but hit if the dealer's card is high. Remember this principle; it is crucial and often overlooked, as these situations arise frequently.

The next guideline is quite clear: if your total is 17 or higher, you simply stand. That rule is uncomplicated. Now, let’s put Angela’s memory to the test as we play a few hands, and we’ll discuss soft doubles and splitting later.

[cards being shared].

Okay, Angela, what should I do?

Angela: You should stand.

Mike: Because.

Angela: You have a 20 against the dealer's weak card.

Mike: Exactly. When I have a hard 17 or more, standing is the obvious choice, which I am indeed doing.

Angela: I hold a hard 17, so I'm [unintelligible].

Mike: Very good.

[cards being shared].

Mike: Okay, Angela, what should I do?

Angela: I have a nine against the dealer's two. Since that's a low card, you should double down.

Mike: That's correct. And before the perfectionists start sending me emails, I want to reiterate that this is a simplified strategy. There are some nuanced situations where the mathematical approach may differ, but to maintain simplicity, we will opt to double in this instance.

Dan: Here's another situation: a total of 12 against a two.

Mike: This scenario illustrates how the wizard's simple strategy diverges from the basic strategy. Don’t overthink it, and please hold off on emailing me about it. So, what does the wizard’s simple strategy propose in this case?

Angela: To stand.

Mike: Because.

Angela: I have 12 against a two because the dealer is showing a weak card.

Mike: Precisely! You have a stiff hand totaling 12 to 16, and with the dealer exhibiting a low card, you stand.

Dan: One more card, please. Still going with that? Now, I’m done.

Mike: Now, no strategy guarantees you will win every single hand. However, mastering this strategy will significantly enhance your blackjack skills compared to the majority of players out there. Now, let’s address a topic we haven’t yet explored: soft doubles. If you possess a soft hand totaling 13 to 15, your action is to always hit. For instance, if I have a soft total of 13, I will hit regardless of what the dealer has. In the case of holding a soft 20, the decision is clear; another rule states that if your soft total is 19 or higher, you should always stand. Given I have a soft total of 20, I’m in a strong position.

Angela: And I’ve got 15 on a two. Stands.

Mike: Correct.

Dan: 18.

[cards being shared].

Dan: Insurance?

Mike: Now, here's another significant principle: never accept insurance. Under any circumstances.

Dan: All right, insurance closed.

Mike: Okay, what should I do?

Dan: So the double down rule indicates that if your total is 10, you will double down against the dealer's up card if it ranks lower. If it doesn’t, you simply hit. Correct?

Mike: Exactly. We count the ace as 11 points. Since you have more points than I do, I will just hit.

Dan: 19, two winners.

[card sharing].

Mike: Okay. What are you going to do?

Angela: 10 on four, I will double.

Mike: Because you outrank the dealer.

Angela: Outrank.

Dan: One card, 20. Five, 13, 15, busted.

[cards being shared].

Mike: So, what should you do?

Angela: I should hit.

Mike: Right, for the soft hand totals of 13 to 15, your action is to always hit. So, with a soft 14, it doesn't matter what card the dealer shows. What’s your next step?

Dan: 13.

Angela: Card 13 so I hit.

Mike: And it’s not simply that the dealer has a higher total; you have a stiff hand while the dealer is showing a strong card. In this instance, I have a hard total of 8 or less, so I must hit. Had I been holding a two-card total of 11, I would double. However, since I cannot double with a total of more than two cards, if I have a hard total of nine, ten, or eleven comprised of three or more cards, my action is always to hit.

Dan: And you lockout.

Mike: Yes.

Angela: I have 11, so I will double down.

Mike: What’s the rule for that situation?

Angela: Double, 11 on everything except-

Dan: An ace.

Angela: - an ace.

Mike: Yes.

Angela: [laughs]. Yei! No, no, no.

Dan: Yes.

Angela: [laughs].

[cards being shared].

Mike: Look at this! Two opportunities where the player can split. There are five types of cards where a split is sometimes appropriate: twos, threes, sixes, sevens, and nines. If you have any of these five hands, you should split only if the dealer is showing a weak card. If they reveal a strong card, you do not split, and instead follow the hitting or standing rules I shared earlier. In this case, I have one of those five types of hands with the dealer displaying a low card, so I will split.

[cards being shared].

Now, you’re holding aces. There are two kinds of hands that you always split: eights and aces.

Dan: And remember, you only get one additional card. You've achieved a 21 here. That’s not a blackjack per se, but it’s still a strong hand. And you definitely needed every bit of it!

Angela: [laughs].

Mike: Now, we have two more hands eligible for splitting. As I mentioned earlier, five kinds of cards might sometimes be split: twos, threes, sixes, sevens, and nines. I have a nine, and whether I split or not depends on the dealer's up card. If the dealer were to show a low card between two and six, I would go ahead and split. However, since the dealer is showing a high card from seven to ace, I’ll play it safe and not split, choosing instead to follow the hitting and standing rules, thereby standing on any total of 18. I'm content.

Angela: I double the 10 on the eight.

Mike: Exactly.

We haven't discussed fives yet, but there are three types of hands in the wizard's simple strategy that you should never split: the three 'F's: fours, fives, and face cards. If you have two fives, you must never split, regardless of what the dealer is showing, so just revert to the hitting and standing strategy. What will you do now?

Angela: I’ll add one more and double for that.

Dan: Good thing you had a strong hand, yes, you win! [laughs] All right.

Mike: This hand presents a chance to explain another rule regarding soft hands. Previously, I mentioned that if a player has a soft hand totaling between 13 and 15, they hit regardless. What I didn’t cover yet is that if the player has a soft hand totaling 16 to 18, the action depends on the dealer's up card. If the dealer's card is low, you double down; if it’s high, you hit. I have a soft total of 13 to 15, so I’ll hit, regardless of the dealer’s card. I'm currently at 15, and since the dealer shows a weak card, I stand. What about you, Angela?

Mike: Exactly.

Angela: I have a 16, oops on 17.

Dan: Thanks Mike

[Laughter]

Angela: I have a soft 17 against a dealer's low card. Should I hit because it's between fifteen and seventeen, or should I double?

Angela: Good.

Dan: Don’t worry, you get coms.

[Laughter]

Mike: In that case, it’s considered between sixteen and eighteen. If your soft total is between these ranges and the dealer has a low card, you should double down.

Mike: This allows me to clarify the final rule of the Wizard’s simple strategy: the only time you should consider surrendering is when you have a 16 against a dealer’s ten. That’s all there is to it – so what’s your play, Angela?

Angela: Well, I have a pair of threes against the dealer's strong card, so I don’t want to split these. If it were a low card, I would consider it, but since the dealer has a high card, I’ll just revert to hitting and standing.

Dan: Yes.

[Cheering]

Mike: What specific types of hands does what you just mentioned apply to?

Angela: To twos, threes, sixes, sevens, and nines.

Mike: That’s right; hence, it’s critical to remember: twos, threes, sixes, sevens, and nines.

Mike: You find yourself in that range, but given the dealer has a strong card, what action do you take now?

Angela: It’s interesting; I have a total of 16 against a ten, oh dear.

Angela: All right.

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Angela: Revert to hit or stand.

Mike: Exactly.

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Mike: Hello, I'm Mike Shackleford from the Wizard of Odds website. Today, I'm joined by my student Angela Wyman and dealer Dan Lubin to discuss blackjack strategy. For the past 25 years, I've been educating individuals about gambling, primarily emphasizing what's known as basic strategy. In numerous souvenir shops in Las Vegas, you can purchase cards that outline how to effectively navigate any situation in blackjack based on your hand and the dealer's visible card.

Yet, I've come to realize that 99% of blackjack players either lack the time or the desire to memorize this information. It's simply too demanding. Therefore, if you find yourself in that 99%, I'm going to guide you through the wizard’s simplified blackjack strategy. It consists of just a few key rules and will help you achieve 99.8% of the expected return you would get from employing basic strategy. It almost gets you to the level of perfect play but in a much simpler manner.

Angela: Thank you.

The first and most evident rule is straightforward: when your total is hard A or less, you always hit. That's it. With a total of nine, your next move depends on the dealer’s up card. If the dealer reveals a low card, you double down; if they show a high card, you hit. Let me clarify what constitutes a low or high up card. A low up card is any card from two to six, while a high card ranges from seven to ace. So, if you've got a total of nine and the dealer's showing a card between two and six, you double. If their card is between seven and ace, you hit.

Written by: Michael Shackleford