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Interesting NFL Promotion
Introduction
First, I want to take a moment to appreciate SOOPOO, who has been a member of WoV for a long time and initiated this discussion. thread I highly recommend checking out the site they mentioned, unless you’ve already discovered it yourself.
Interestingly, I was previously aware of that specific promotion before this conversation began, but SOOPOO is the one who highlighted it in this forum and deserves recognition for that.
Our goal with this discussion is to tackle two main objectives:
- We aim to calculate a general expected value (EV) for this promotional offer.
- Additionally, we're interested in figuring out if there’s a strategic way to approach this promotion. For example, what if you could only play a select few games, rather than every match available that week? (I can envision similar promotions in the future that might limit players to just one or two games.)
The Promotion:
SOOPOO has summarized the promotion in the following way:
Is this a +EV opportunity? Place a money line bet on any NFL game, and if your team is ahead by 10 points at any point during the game, you win the bet, regardless of the final outcome.
How often does a team manage to lead by 10 points only to end up losing?
Should you opt for an underdog, a favorite, or is it irrelevant?
Considering that I might be facing a 5% vigorish, I suspect this must be +EV.
Any feedback? I'm prompted to extend this to every game during week one.
The way this promotion operates is simple and clear. The key factor is that in order for your MoneyLine bet to be successful, your team just needs to lead by 10 points at any stage, even if they ultimately lose the game.
SOOPOO poses some insightful questions that align with the two main goals we are pursuing in this analysis. The primary question is—how frequently does this scenario occur? We know it happens occasionally; the Atlanta Falcons can attest to that, but if it never occurs at all, then it adds no real value, correct?
To support our analysis, I plan to utilize two key resources, which I will briefly describe:
The first is Sports Odds History The first site I've chosen is an excellent tool for retrieving historical odds from past games. While they don't provide MoneyLines directly, we can translate their point spreads into MoneyLine odds where applicable for our analysis.
The second site I will reference is focused on providing box scores, which allows me to quickly verify if the losing team ever led by 10 points at any particular moment during the match. The Football Database It's important to note that our analysis will rely on a considerable yet somewhat constrained sample size. It's restricted as it's unlikely that this situation happens too often. We also want up-to-date data to incorporate changes in rules and gameplay trends over the years.
METHODOLOGY
To kick off our research, we will secure a baseline number, and for all relevant games, I'll include the spread as well as the converted MoneyLine for our future reference.
We will examine every game from the NFL regular seasons spanning 2017 to 2021, covering a total of five seasons and amounting to (256 *4) + (272 * 1) = 1,296 regular season matches.
For our initial analysis, the sample size is quite reasonable. However, for our secondary analysis, it may be limited since the scenarios we’re interested in don’t occur frequently.
1.) Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots–What a start! It was the opening game of the season. The New England Patriots lost 42-27, but at one point in the second quarter, they held a 17-7 lead.
Okay, let’s do this week by week:
2017 Season, Week 1:
The point spread for that match seems to indicate NE as an 8-point favorite, which correlates to a MoneyLine around -366.
2.) Arizona @ Detroit–We have a similar scenario in the second match. Arizona took an early 10-0 lead into the second quarter but ended up losing the game.
This game had Arizona listed at a -2.5 point spread, and I managed to find the MoneyLine, which stood at -128.
3.) Arizona @ Indianapolis–In Week 2, Arizona faced a turnaround as the Colts started strong with a 10-0 lead in the first quarter before ultimately losing 16-13.
2017 Season, Week 2:
The Colts were favored by seven points in this matchup, which they managed to cover, converting to a MoneyLine around +249.
4.) Cincinnati @ Green Bay–Cincinnati appeared to be in a good position at halftime with a 21-7 lead, but Green Bay claimed a win in overtime.
2017 Season, Week 3:
The closing point spread shows Green Bay as a 7-point favorite, leading to an approximate MoneyLine of -319.
5.) L.A. Rams @ Dallas–Even though the Dallas Cowboys had an early 17-6 edge in the second quarter, they narrowly lost at home.
2017 Season, Week 4:
The Rams were given a spread of either 5 or 5.5 points going into the game, so let’s represent that as +5, which equates to about +188 on the MoneyLine.
6.) Washington @ Kansas City–Washington jumped ahead 10-0 in the first quarter but could not hold that lead, losing 29-20 to Kansas City.
I found an actual MoneyLine for this matchup, which would have required you to lay down -306 if you had opted for the eventual winner.
7.) Seattle @ Los Angeles Rams–In a tightly contested game ending with a 16-10 victory for the visitors, the Rams initially led 10-0.
2017 Season, Week 5:
In this match, Seattle was the underdog with a +2 point spread and had a MoneyLine of +114.
8.) Green Bay @ Dallas–Despite a final loss of 35-31, Dallas had a seemingly strong 21-6 advantage past the halfway mark of the second quarter.
Records show that Dallas were favored by 2.5 points, translating to a MoneyLine close to -142.
9.) Miami @ Atlanta–In what seems to be a recurrent issue for the Falcons, they had a commanding 17-0 lead at halftime, yet Miami dominated the second half, winning the game 20-17.
2017 Season, Week 6:
Miami had a MoneyLine of +638, which made bettors sweat their potential for a victory since being ahead by ten seemed unlikely. Conversely, Atlanta bettors benefited from the promotion, as the favorite MoneyLine would have been around -819.
10.) New England @ New York Jets–Patriots fans must have felt anxious with a 14-0 deficit at the start of the second quarter, but Belichick rallied his team to an eventual 24-17 win in this divisional rivalry.
The Jets entered this game as nine-point underdogs, with a MoneyLine of +361, marking our tenth example.
11.) Indianapolis @ Tennessee–The Colts had a tough time as they lost 36-22 to the Titans, despite holding a 19-9 lead early in the third quarter.
The Colts appeared to be receiving a full seven points in this game, leading to a MoneyLine around +249.
12.) New York Jets @ Miami–Although both teams had disappointing seasons, they faced off in an exciting game that ended with Miami edging out a 31-28 win, despite the Jets leading 28-14 with under two minutes left in the third quarter.
2017 Season, Week 7:
The Dolphins were favored by three points against the spread, but the MoneyLine for the Jets was about +135.
13.) Atlanta @ Carolina–Atlanta has a knack for this! They took a quick 10-0 lead in the first quarter, but managed to score just once more and lost 20-17.
2017 Season, Week 8:
NOT APPLICABLE
2017 Season, Week 9:
Atlanta entered this game at 2.5-point favorites, making their MoneyLine roughly -142.
14.) Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis–Pittsburgh triumphed with a 20-17 score, even after the Colts had surged to a 10-0 lead midway through the second quarter.
2017 Season, Week 10:
The MoneyLine for the Colts stood at +400, which would have yielded a nice return if a team that briefly led decided to lose.
15.) Detroit @ Chicago–In this contest, the Bears shut out the Lions 10-0 heading into the second quarter, but Detroit made a comeback to secure a 27-24 victory.
2017 Season, Week 11:
According to online sources, the Bears were +144 at the start.
16.) Washington @ New Orleans–Initially, the Redskins led 24-13 early in the third quarter, but they couldn't maintain their advantage, eventually falling to the Saints 34-31 in overtime.
New Orleans was seen as the favorite with a 9.5-point spread, making the estimated line for Washington around +327.
17.) Tennessee @ Indianapolis–In a nail-biter, the Colts narrowly lost 20-16 to the Titans, although they briefly led 16-6 in the third quarter.
2017 Season, Week 12:
The Colts were the Moneyline underdogs in this match, with actual odds at +151.
18.) Houston @ Tennessee–Despite an early 10-0 lead for the Texans in the second quarter, the Titans recovered and took the game 24-13.
2017 Season, Week 13:
Houston was given a seven-point spread, which corresponds to a MoneyLine estimate of around +249.
19.) Kansas City @ New York Jets–The Chiefs started strong, racing to a 14-0 lead in what seemed like a dominant performance, but the Jets regained control and eventually won 38-31.
Kansas City was favored by 3.5 points, which would translate to a MoneyLine of approximately -191.
20.) Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati–Cincinnati held a 10-0 advantage at the end of the first quarter but ultimately fell to the Steelers 23-20; it’s intriguing how one can analyze these scenarios without needing to refer to scoring summaries!
In terms of the MoneyLine, Cincinnati was recorded at +187 in this instance.
21.) Green Bay @ Cleveland–You can't help but feel sympathy for Hue Jackson and his struggling team. They entered the fourth quarter leading 21-7, and it seemed certain that their first win of the season was in reach, yet the Browns allowed the Packers to level the score and lost in overtime.
2017 Season, Week 14:
Surprisingly, the actual MoneyLine for this game had the Browns at only +120.
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Initially, I want to express my gratitude to SOOPOO, a long-standing member of WoV, for originating the content below.
2017 Season, Week 15:
I encourage everyone to take a look at it, unless that’s already where you found this.
Interestingly, I was aware of that promotion even before this discussion began, but SOOPOO is undoubtedly the first to mention it here on WoV and merits acknowledgment.
Our goal here is to achieve two main objectives:
We aim to calculate a baseline Expected Value (EV) for this promotion.
2017 Season, Week 16:
NOT APPLICABLE
2017 Season, Week 17:
NOT APPLICABLE
| Season | Week | Game | Losing Team +10 and MoneyLine | Favorites | Dogs |
| 2017 | 1 | KC @ NE | -366 | 1 | 0 |
| 2017 | 1 | ARZ @ DET | -128 | 2 | 0 |
| 2017 | 2 | Arz @ IND | 249 | 2 | 1 |
| 2017 | 3 | CIN @ GB | -319 | 3 | 1 |
| 2017 | 4 | LAR @ DAL | 188 | 3 | 2 |
| 2017 | 4 | WASH @ KC | -306 | 4 | 2 |
| 2017 | 5 | SEA @ LAR | 114 | 4 | 3 |
| 2017 | 5 | GB @ DAL | -142 | 5 | 3 |
| 2017 | 6 | MIA @ ATL | -819 | 6 | 3 |
| 2017 | 6 | NE @ NYJ | 361 | 6 | 4 |
| 2017 | 6 | IND @ TEN | 249 | 6 | 5 |
| 2017 | 7 | NYJ @ MIA | 135 | 6 | 6 |
| 2017 | 9 | ATL @ CAR | -142 | 7 | 6 |
| 2017 | 10 | PIT @ IND | 400 | 7 | 7 |
| 2017 | 11 | DET @ CHI | 144 | 7 | 8 |
| 2017 | 11 | WASH @ NO | 327 | 7 | 9 |
| 2017 | 12 | TEN @ IND | 151 | 7 | 10 |
| 2017 | 13 | HOU @ TEN | 249 | 7 | 11 |
| 2017 | 13 | KC @ NYJ | -191 | 8 | 11 |
| 2017 | 13 | PIT @ CIN | 187 | 8 | 12 |
| 2017 | 14 | GB @ CLE | 120 | 8 | 13 |
| 2017 | 14 | BAL @ PIT | 195 | 8 | 14 |
| 2017 | 15 | DEN @ IND | 135 | 8 | 15 |
| 2017 | 15 | PHI @ NYG | 268 | 8 | 16 |
2017 SEASON PERTINENT BREAKDOWN
Additionally, we want to explore if there is a more strategic way to approach this promotion, such as if it were limited to just a few games instead of all the games that week. (It's possible that future promotions could require players to engage in this manner, focusing on one or a select few games.)
Total Games: 256
Total Number Lead by 10+ and Lose: 24
Frequency (Games): 0.09375 or 9.375%
Total Number of Favorites: 256*
Total Number of Dogs: 256*
According to SOOPOO’s explanation of the promotion:
Frequency, Favorites: 8/256 = 0.03125 or 3.125%
Frequency Dogs: 16/256 = 0.0625 or 6.25%
ANALYSIS:
Is this situation favorable? Make a money line wager on any NFL match, and if at any point your team has a lead of 10 points, you win the bet, even if your team ultimately loses.
How frequently does a team manage to be ahead by 10 points and then end up losing?
Should one choose an underdog, a favorite, or does it not matter?
We can find a chart on Wizard of Odds here Considering that there’s probably a 5% vig, I believe this must be a favorable bet.
What do you think? I can analyze this for EVERY game in the first week.
256 * 250 * .0624 = $3993.6
The clarity of how this works is refreshing. The primary takeaway is that for your MoneyLine wager to be successful, your team just needs to be leading by ten points at any point, even if they lose in the end.
SOOPOO also poses some insightful questions that align with the objectives we have set out to accomplish. The pressing question is—how often does this actually occur? We know it’s not an uncommon scenario, as the Atlanta Falcons can attest, but if hypothetically it happened never, then there would be no added value, right?
ALL BETS ARE $250:
-366 = $68.31
-128 = $195.31
-319 = $78.38
-306 = $81.70
-142 = $176.06
-819 = $30.53
-142 = $176.06
-191 = $130.89
To move forward, I will be referencing two websites, which I will describe briefly:
68.31 + 195.31 + 78.38 + 81.70 + 176.06 + 30.53 + 176.06 + 130.89 + 2000 = $2937.24
, a fantastic resource for researching historical game odds. They don’t provide MoneyLines directly, but we can convert the point spread to a MoneyLine where possible to get a better understanding.
1056.36/(250*256) = 0.016505625 or about a 1.651% loss on all dollars bet.
The second website I will consult is
, which is useful for me to quickly examine box scores to see if it was even feasible, or whether it was clear that the losing team once held a lead of ten points or more.
(250 * 256) * .0391 = $2502.40
It's important to note that this analysis will involve a significant, but finite, sample size. The sample is limited because I don't expect to find this scenario happening very frequently. Additionally, we want the most recent data available to reflect any changes in rules or gameplay tactics over the years.
+249 = $622.50
+188 = $470.00
+114 = $285.00
+361 = $902.53
+249 = $622.50
+135 = $337.50
+400 = $1000.00
+144 = $360.00
+327 = $817.50
+151 = $377.50
+249 = $622.50
+187 = $467.50
+120 = $300.00
+195 = $487.50
+135 = $337.50
+268 = $670.00
To start, we'll gather raw figures, but for every applicable game, I will also indicate what the spread was and how it converts to a MoneyLine for our future reference.
1497.60 + 622.50 + 470.00 + 285 + 902.53 + 622.50 + 337.50 + 1000 + 360 + 817.50 + 377.50 + 622.50 + 467.50 + 300 + 487.50 + 337.50 + 670 = $10,177.63
Our examination will cover every game from the NFL regular seasons spanning 2017 to 2021, totaling five years and (256 *4) + (272 * 1) = 1,296 regular season games.
Final Stats for 2017:
All Favorites: ($1056.36)
All Dogs: $10,177.63
All Offsets: $9121.27
2018 NFL SEASON
For our initial piece of research, this sample size is actually quite manageable. However, for our second piece, it will be somewhat restricted as this situation is likely rare.
2018 Season, Week 1:
1.) Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots–What a start! This was the season's opening game, and in a loss of 42-27, the New England Patriots held a 17-7 advantage at one point during the second quarter.
The point spread for this matchup appears to be NE -8, which roughly translates to a MoneyLine around -366.
2.) Arizona @ Detroit–We're back at it with the second game on our list. Arizona jumped to a 10-0 lead entering the second quarter, only to come up short in the end.
Here, Arizona was at -2.5, and I actually found a MoneyLine for this game, which stood at -128.
2018 Season, Week 2:
3.) Arizona @ Indianapolis–Week 2 brought a role reversal for Arizona as they fell to the Colts, who raced to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter before concluding the game with a 16-13 victory.
The Colts were underdogs by seven points in this match-up, which they managed to cover, equating to a MoneyLine of about +249.
2019 Season, Week 3:
4.) Cincinnati @ Green Bay - Even though Cincinnati exited to the locker room leading 21-7 at halftime, Green Bay turned the tables and came back to win in overtime.
The closing spread for this game shows Green Bay at -7, which is approximately -319 on the MoneyLine.
5.) L.A. Rams @ Dallas–Despite Dallas leading 17-6 early in the second quarter, they ended up narrowly losing the match at home.
The Rams were given either 5 or 5.5 points leading into the game, so let’s settle on +5, translating to roughly +188 on the MoneyLine.
6.) Washington @ Kansas City–After starting the first quarter with a 10-0 lead, Washington ultimately succumbed to Kansas City, with the score at 29-20.
An actual MoneyLine for this game shows a price of -306 if you wanted to support the winning team.
2018 Season, Week 4:
7.) Seattle @ Los Angeles Rams–Despite the Rams narrowly winning 16-10, they actually held a 10-0 lead at one stage in the game.
In this case, Seattle was underdogs by two points, resulting in a MoneyLine of +114.
8.) Green Bay @ Dallas–In what turned out to be a 35-31 loss, Dallas held an impressive 21-6 lead more than halfway through the second quarter.
Dallas entered this match as 2.5 point favorites, which corresponds to a MoneyLine around -142.
9.) Miami @ Atlanta–In what's clearly a recurring theme for the Falcons, they appeared to dominate the Dolphins, heading into the locker room with a 17-0 lead, but Miami came roaring back to claim a 20-17 victory.
Miami’s MoneyLine stood at +638, meaning anyone betting on them for victory might have been worried, especially since leading by ten seemed unlikely. Conversely, Atlanta bettors saved some cash thanks to the favored MoneyLine, which should have been around -819.
10.) New England @ New York Jets–The loyal Patriots supporters must have been anxious watching their team trail 14-0 early in the second quarter. However, Belichick and the squad rallied to win this division clash 24-17.
The Jets were entering the matchup as nine-point underdogs, yielding a MoneyLine of +361, giving us our tenth entry.
11.) Indianapolis @ Tennessee–Despite facing a tough defeat of 36-22 against the Titans, the Colts managed to lead 19-9 early in the third quarter.
2018 Season, Week 5:
The Colts appear to have started as seven-point underdogs, suggesting a MoneyLine around +249, give or take.
12.) New York Jets @ Miami–While neither team's season went as hoped, they put on an exciting display in this game. The Dolphins edged out the Jets with a final score of 31-28 after the Jets gained a 28-14 lead with less than two minutes left in the third quarter.
2018 Season, Week 6:
The Dolphins were giving three points entering the contest for the spread, but on the MoneyLine, they were around +135 for the Jets.
13.) Atlanta @ Carolina–This is a recurring pattern! Atlanta excelled by securing a 10-0 lead in the first quarter, but they couldn't score again until the fourth, ultimately losing 20-17.
2018 Season, Week 7:
Atlanta was favored by 2.5 points, equating to a MoneyLine of approximately -142.
14.) Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis–In this match, the Steelers edged out a 20-17 victory, though the Colts initially held a 10-0 lead around the mid-second quarter.
The MoneyLine listed for the Colts was +400, which would have granted a decent return for a team that initially held a lead but ultimately lost.
15.) Detroit @ Chicago–In this game, the Bears managed to keep the Lions scoreless at 10-0 going into the second quarter. However, the Lions rallied back to win 27-24.
Online data sources pegged the Bears at +144 as they entered this matchup.
16.) Washington @ New Orleans–The Redskins were enjoying a solid 24-13 lead early in the third quarter, but they faltered and lost in overtime, 34-31, to the Saints in this Conference matchup.
2018 Season, Week 8:
New Orleans was favored by 9.5 points in this game, suggesting that Washington would have been estimated around +327.
17.) Tennessee @ Indianapolis–In this contest, the Colts narrowly lost to the Titans, 20-16, but not before leading 16-6 midway through the third quarter.
The Colts were trailing in the MoneyLine for this matchup, with an actual line of +151.
18.) Houston @ Tennessee–Even with a 10-0 lead in the early second quarter, the Titans mounted a comeback to win 24-13.
2018 Season, Week 9:
NOT APPLICABLE
2018 Season, Week 10:
Houston was the underdog by seven points going into this game, translating to a MoneyLine of about +249.
19.) Kansas City @ New York Jets–The Chiefs came out strong, taking a commanding 14-0 lead and seeming to have the game in hand, but the Jets took control afterward and triumphed 38-31.
2018 Season, Week 11:
Kansas City entered as 3.5 point favorites in this contest, translating to a MoneyLine favorite of about -191.
20.) Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati–Cincinnati held a 10-0 lead at the end of the first quarter; however, they were ultimately outplayed by the Steelers, finishing 23-20. It's amusing that we didn't even need to check scoring summaries!
In terms of the MoneyLine, I discovered an actual return of +187 for the Bengals in this particular match.
21.) Green Bay @ Cleveland–It’s hard not to feel sympathy for Hue Jackson and his struggling team. The Browns managed to hold a 21-7 lead going into the fourth quarter, and it almost seemed guaranteed they would secure their first victory of the season, but the Packers managed to tie the game and eventually triumphed in overtime.
For this game, I do have a MoneyLine number, and surprisingly, the Browns were only listed at +120.
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2018 Season, Week 12:
Calculator for Estimating Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales
First and foremost, I want to recognize SOOPOO, a longstanding member of the WoV community, who has contributed significantly by creating the following.
I highly recommend that everyone checks it out, unless, of course, you've already come across it.
Interestingly enough, I was aware of that promotion before this discussion started, but it’s SOOPOO who is the first to mention it in this context on WoV and deserves our respect.
Our goal is to achieve two key objectives:
We aim to establish a fundamental expectation value (EV) for this promotion.
Additionally, we want to find the best strategy for participating in this promotion; for instance, considering scenarios where only a select few games were available instead of all games during that week. I can envision future promotions where players might have to navigate it this way, but only for one or a couple of games.
Now, here's how SOOPOO characterizes the promotion:
2018 Season, Week 13:
Is this bet profitable? You place a money line bet on any NFL match, and if your team is up by 10 points at any point during the game, you automatically win the bet, even if your team ultimately loses.
How frequently does a team lead by 10 points only to lose?
Is it more advantageous to choose an underdog, a favorite, or an inconsequential match?
Considering that I'm likely paying around a 5% vig, I suspect this has to be a positive EV.
2018 Season, Week 14:
Any insights? I am capable of applying this analysis to EVERY game in week one.
The explanation provided is concise, clear, and accurate. The most important aspect to observe is that, for your MoneyLine bet to succeed, your team simply needs to have a lead of ten points at any stage, even if they lose the game.
SOOPOO poses several insightful questions that align with the two main goals we’re aiming to achieve. The most pressing question is—how often does this scenario actually occur? While we know it does happen occasionally, as the Atlanta Falcons can attest, if hypothetically it never occurred, there would be no added value, correct?
To proceed, I will be heavily utilizing two different websites, which I'll briefly describe:
2018 Season, Week 15:
This is a fantastic site for researching historical betting odds. Unfortunately, they don’t seem to provide MoneyLines, but we can often convert the spread into a MoneyLine to gain insight.
The second website I’ll reference is...
2018 Season, Week 16:
This site aids my analysis since I can quickly access box scores to verify if a losing team ever had a ten or more point lead at any time during the game, and sometimes it definitely did or didn’t occur.
It's important to note that this project will utilize a significant yet finite data sample. It’s limited because I don't expect this occurrence is very frequent. We also want to utilize the most recent data available to address changes in game rules and styles over the years.
To start, we will gather some preliminary figures, and for each relevant game, I'll also include the point spread as well as its corresponding MoneyLine for our future reference.
The data will encompass all games from the NFL regular seasons spanning from 2017 to 2021, meaning we’ll be reviewing a total of five seasons, which includes 1,296 regular season matches calculated as (256 *4) + (272 * 1).
2018 Season, Week 17:
For our initial research, this sample size isn’t going to be all that insufficient. However, for our secondary objective, it will indeed be somewhat limited, since this event doesn’t occur frequently.
1.) Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots—What a start! This opening game concluded with a score of 42-27 in favor of the Patriots, who at one point led by 17-7 in the second quarter.
The point spread for this matchup appears to be NE -8, which translates to an approximate MoneyLine of -366.
2.) Arizona vs. Detroit—We’re repeating the scenario in the next matchup. Arizona surged to a 10-0 lead by the second quarter, only to end up losing.
| Season | Week | Game | Losing Team +10 and MoneyLine | Favorites | Dogs |
| 2018 | 1 | CIN @ IND | -110 | 1 | 0 |
| 2018 | 1 | CHI @ GB | 224 | 1 | 1 |
| 2018 | 2 | OAK @ DEN | 224 | 1 | 2 |
| 2018 | 3 | NYJ @ CLE | 135 | 1 | 3 |
| 2018 | 3 | OAK @ MIA | 136 | 1 | 4 |
| 2018 | 3 | CHI @ ARZ | 195 | 1 | 5 |
| 2018 | 4 | PHI @ TEN | -142 | 2 | 5 |
| 2018 | 4 | CLE @ OAK | -142 | 3 | 5 |
| 2018 | 4 | SF @ LAC | 367 | 3 | 6 |
| 2018 | 4 | KC @ DEN | 162 | 3 | 7 |
| 2018 | 5 | MIA @ CIN | 231 | 3 | 8 |
| 2018 | 6 | CHI @ MIA | -282 | 4 | 8 |
| 2018 | 7 | CAR @ PHI | -234 | 5 | 8 |
| 2018 | 7 | NE @ CHI | 106 | 5 | 9 |
| 2018 | 7 | NO @ BAL | -142 | 6 | 9 |
| 2018 | 8 | SF @ ARZ | -142 | 7 | 9 |
| 2018 | 8 | GB @ LAR | 268 | 7 | 10 |
| 2018 | 10 | NYG @ SF | -164 | 8 | 10 |
| 2018 | 11 | GB @ SEA | 135 | 8 | 11 |
| 2018 | 11 | PIT @ JAX | 186 | 8 | 12 |
| 2018 | 11 | DEN @ LAC | -305 | 9 | 12 |
| 2018 | 12 | NYG @ PHI | 171 | 9 | 13 |
| 2018 | 12 | ARZ @ LAC | 606 | 9 | 14 |
| 2018 | 12 | MIA @ IND | 314 | 9 | 15 |
| 2018 | 12 | TEN @ HOU | 156 | 9 | 16 |
| 2018 | 13 | NYJ @ TEN | 389 | 9 | 17 |
| 2018 | 13 | LAC @ PIT | 135 | 9 | 18 |
| 2018 | 14 | NYJ @ BUF | -224 | 10 | 18 |
| 2018 | 14 | NO @ TB | 356 | 10 | 19 |
| 2018 | 15 | LAC @ KC | -191 | 11 | 19 |
| 2018 | 16 | GB @ NYJ | 139 | 11 | 20 |
| 2018 | 16 | NYG @ IND | 356 | 11 | 21 |
| 2018 | 17 | ATL @ TB | 117 | 11 | 22 |
| 2018 | 17 | CIN @ PIT | 573 | 11 | 23 |
2018 SEASON PERTINENT BREAKDOWN
Additionally, we want to explore if there is a more strategic way to approach this promotion, such as if it were limited to just a few games instead of all the games that week. (It's possible that future promotions could require players to engage in this manner, focusing on one or a select few games.)
Total Games: 256
Total Number Lead by 10+ and Lose: 34
Frequency (Games): 0.1328125 or 13.28125%
Total Number of Favorites: 256*
Total Number of Dogs: 256*
According to SOOPOO’s explanation of the promotion:
Frequency, Favorites: 11/256 = 0.04296875 or 4.296875%
Frequency Dogs: 23/256 = 0.08984375 or 8.984375%
ANALYSIS:
For this game, Arizona was listed at -2.5, and I managed to find a MoneyLine of -128.
3.) Arizona vs. Indianapolis—In Week 2, Arizona faced a contrasting fate, with the Colts leading 10-0 at the first quarter before ultimately losing 16-13.
The Colts were actually the underdogs by seven points in this matchup, which they managed to cover, corresponding to a MoneyLine of approximately +249.
256 * 250 * .0624 = $3993.6
4.) Cincinnati vs. Green Bay—Cincinnati went into halftime leading 21-7 but ultimately fell to Green Bay in overtime.
The closing spread for this game was Green Bay -7, giving a MoneyLine around -319.
5.) L.A. Rams vs. Dallas—Despite taking an early lead of 17-6 in the second quarter, the Dallas Cowboys narrowly lost at home.
1.) -110 = $227.27
2.) -142 = $176.06
3.) -142 = $176.06
4.) -282 = $88.65
5.) -234 = $106.85
6.) -142 = $176.06
7.) -142 = $176.06
8.) -164 = $152.44
9.) -305 = $81.97
10.) -224 = $111.61
11.) -191 = $130.90
The Rams were given either 5 or 5.5 points leading into this matchup, making it around +5 and reflecting a MoneyLine of approximately +188.
(3993.6) - (2750 + 227.27 + 176.06 + 176.06 + 88.65 + 106.85 + 176.06 + 176.06 + 152.44 + 81.97 + 111.61 + 130.90) = -$360.33
6.) Washington vs. Kansas City—Washington found itself up 10-0 after the first quarter but ultimately lost to Kansas City with a final score of 29-20.
I was able to gather an actual MoneyLine for this game, which would have resulted in a wager of -306 for those backing the winning team.
2017: (68.31 + 195.31 + 78.38 + 81.70 + 176.06 + 30.53 + 176.06 + 130.89)/8 = $117.155
2018: (227.27 + 176.06 + 176.06 + 88.65 + 106.85 + 176.06 + 176.06 + 152.44 + 81.97 + 111.61 + 130.90)/11 = $145.811
7.) Seattle vs. Los Angeles Rams—Even though the final score was a slim 16-10 victory for the Rams, at one point they had a 10-0 lead.
For this game, it seems Seattle was listed as the underdog by two points, with a MoneyLine of +114.
8.) Green Bay vs. Dallas—Despite losing 35-31 in the end, the Cowboys had a substantial 21-6 lead midway through the second quarter.
Dallas entered this matchup as 2.5 favorites, which would correspond to a MoneyLine roughly around -142.
9.) Miami vs. Atlanta—In a situation reminiscent of the Falcons' struggles, Atlanta held a dominant 17-0 lead at halftime only for Miami to score all the final points and claim victory 20-17.
Miami was listed at +638 on the MoneyLine, meaning someone betting on them would have been anxious about their chances; it was clear they wouldn’t consistently hold a ten-point lead. Conversely, Atlanta backers would benefit from this promotion as the favorite MoneyLine was likely around -819.
10.) New England vs. New York Jets—The Patriots supporters must have been anxious after falling behind 14-0 early in the second quarter, but Belichick and his team managed to secure the victory in this divisional matchup with a score of 24-17.
2018 Frequency Favorites: 11/256 = 0.04296875 or 4.296875%
Bet All Favorites Results: $360.33 Profit
Total Amount Bet: $64000
Profit Percentage: 64360.33/64000 = 1.00563015625 or 0.563% Profits
The Jets appeared as nine-point underdogs entering the game, providing a MoneyLine of +361, marking our tenth instance.
11.) Indianapolis vs. Tennessee—Although the Colts suffered a hefty 36-22 loss to the Titans, they were ahead 19-9 in the early part of the third quarter.
Frequency Dogs: 23/256 = 0.08984375 or 8.984375%
For this match, the Colts were positioned as seven-point dogs, suggesting a MoneyLine around +249.
12.) New York Jets vs. Miami—While the seasons for both teams didn’t meet expectations, this thrilling encounter saw the Jets narrowly defeated, with the Dolphins clinching a 31-28 victory after the Jets took a commanding 28-14 lead late in the third quarter.
(250 * 256) * .0391 = $2502.40
The Dolphins were giving up three points, but not affecting the Moneyline, which was approximately +135 for the Jets.
13.) Atlanta vs. Carolina—Atlanta has a knack for this scenario! After soaring to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter, they would fail to find the end zone again until the fourth quarter, ultimately losing 20-17.
(All Odds are + Odds)
1.) 224 = 560.00
2.) 224 = 560.00
3.) 135 = 337.50
4.) 136 = 340.00
5.) 195 = 487.50
6.) 367 = 917.50
7.) 162 = 405.00
8.) 231 = 577.50
9.) 106 = 265.00
10.) 268 = 670.00
11.) 135 = 337.50
12.) 186 = 465.00
13.) 171 = 427.50
14.) 606 = 1515.00
15.) 314 = 785.00
16.) 156 = 390.00
17.) 389 = 972.50
18.) 135 = 337.50
19.) 356 = 890.00
20.) 139 = 347.50
21.) 356 = 890.00
22.) 117 = 292.50
23.) 573 = 1432.50
Atlanta were 2.5 point favorites, making their MoneyLine about -142.
(5750 + 560 + 560 + 337.50 + 340 + 487.50 + 917.50 + 405.00 + 577.50 + 265.00 + 670 + 337.50 + 465 + 427.5 + 1515 + 785 + 390 + 972.50 + 337.5 + 890 + 347.50 + 890 + 292.50 + 1432.50) - 2502.40 = $17,450.10 (Profits)
14.) Pittsburgh vs. Indianapolis—Pittsburgh triumphed with a score of 20-17, but the Colts had the upper hand early in the second quarter going up 10-0.
The Colts saw a Moneyline of +400, indicating a good return for a team that led by ten points at one time, yet still lost.
81450.10/64000 = 1.2726578125 or 27.266% gains.
15.) Detroit vs. Chicago—In this face-off, Chicago entered the second quarter with a solid 10-0 advantage, yet the Lions rallied back to secure a 27-24 victory.
| Year | 2017 | 2018 |
| Games | 256 | 256 |
| Games Betting Favorites | 256 | 256 |
| Games Betting Dogs | 256 | 256 |
| Promotion Swing % Favorites | 3.13% | 4.30% |
| Promotion Swing % Dogs | 6.25% | 8.98% |
| Gain(Loss) Favorites | ($1,056.36) | $360.33 |
| Gain (Loss) % Favorites | -1.65% | 0.56% |
| Gain Dogs | $10,177.63 | $17,450.10 |
| Gain % Dogs | 15.90% | 27.27% |
| Gain Offsets | $9,121.27 | $17,810.43 |
| Gain % Offsets | 7.13% | 13.91% |
Online resources point to the Bears having a MoneyLine of +144 before kickoff.
16.) Washington vs. New Orleans—Washington enjoyed a strong 24-13 lead at the start of the third quarter but fell short, losing this Conference game to the Saints in overtime by a score of 34-31.
The estimated line for Washington in this match was about +327, as New Orleans were favored by 9.5.
17.) Tennessee vs. Indianapolis—The Colts narrowly lost to the Titans with a score of 20-16, yet they had a brief lead of 16-6 midway through the third quarter.
The Colts were seen as the underdogs in this scenario with a MoneyLine around +151.
18.) Houston vs. Tennessee—Houston established a lead of 10-0 at the start of the second quarter, but the Titans made a comeback and ultimately won the match 24-13.
Houston was positioned as seven-point underdogs in this matchup, translating to a line of around +249.
19.) Kansas City vs. New York Jets—The Chiefs burst out with an impressive early lead of 14-0, appearing set to dominate, but the Jets took control of the later stages and won 38-31.
Kansas City was given a 3.5 point advantage in this game, which would correspond to a Moneyline of approximately -191.
As I write this, Vegas Insider 20.) Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati—Cincinnati led with a score of 10-0 by the end of the first quarter, yet fell short against the Steelers, who took home a victory of 23-20; it’s always amusing when we don't even need to delve into scoring recaps!
New Orleans -233
Atlanta +193
The Bengal's MoneyLine was listed at +187 in this contest.
250 - 107.30 = $142.70 (Loss)
If the Falcons win:
250 - 482.50 = 232.50 (Profit)
21.) Green Bay vs. Cleveland—One can't help but sympathize with Hue Jackson and his struggling team. Inexplicably, despite leading 21-7 going into the fourth quarter, the Browns allowed the Packers to tie the game and subsequently lost in overtime. here Interestingly, the MoneyLine for this game showed the Browns at +120.
Saints -5.5 = 69%
Falcons = 31%
22.) Baltimore @ Pittsburgh – This game was certainly one for the books! The Steelers were in control early, leading 14-0 at one point during the second quarter. However, the Ravens staged a remarkable comeback, even being ahead 31-20 as they entered the final quarter, although they ultimately fell short with a score of 39-38.
(232.50 * .31) - (.69 * 142.7) = -26.388
The Steelers were considered the favorites by about 5.5 points, which would place the Ravens’ odds at approximately +195 for a win, although I wasn't able to locate an exact closing line.
23.) Denver @ Indianapolis – As expected, the Colts took an early 10-0 lead by mid-second quarter, but they couldn't hold on and were eventually defeated 25-13.
Saints Win, Falcons Never Lead by 10+: (.69 - .08984375) = 0.60015625
Saints Win, Falcons DO Lead by 10+: .08984375
Falcons Win, Saints Never Lead by 10+: (.31 - .04296875) = 0.26703125
Falcons Win, Saints DO Lead by 10+: .04296875
(232.50 * 0.26703125) + (589.80 * .04296875) + (.08984375 * 589.80) - (0.60015625 * 142.70) = $54.77528125
It appears that the Colts were given a three-point advantage, translating to around +135 for their Moneyline odds.
24.) Philadelphia @ New York Giants – The Giants managed to secure a 20-7 lead early in the second quarter, but if you're familiar with their performance over the last ten years, you know that a 13-point lead is hardly secure. The Eagles eventually triumphed with a final score of 34-29.
As the underdogs, the Giants had a spread of 7.5 points, suggesting their Moneyline would be around +268.
Now, we have 32 teams each playing 16 games, leading to a total of 256 games in the regular season since each team faced off against another team. Let’s analyze what we can conclude from this:
*This total doesn't factor in Pick 'Ems, and honestly, I don't have the time to delve into those details, even if I could.
To arrive at solid conclusions, we need to conduct further analysis, so there’s room for unexpected results. It seems that underdogs tend to perform better than favorites in these cases. It's not surprising, given that favorites are typically strong teams that:
DO: Occasionally recover from large deficits.
DON'T: Regularly squander leads of ten points or more.
This illustrates the loss percentage one would face if blindly betting on every favorite or underdog. Analyzing 3,220 games reveals that backing favorites on the Moneyline would result in a 6.24% loss on all wagers.
With this insight, let’s explore the potential losses we might encounter based on these estimates when betting on 256 Moneyline favorites at $250 each using the promotion:
In doing so, we’d expect nearly a $4,000 loss with this betting method, assuming we blindly placed $250 on every favored team.
It's important to remind ourselves that we’re converting some losses into wins through this promotion. Looking back at the 2017 season, for instance, if we saved the $250 on all eight losses, that leads to a total saving of $2,000. Additionally, we would earn winnings from these games, the estimated amount based on this sample is:
We’ll now total these amounts and add them to the $2,000 we didn't lose:
2019 NFL SEASON
Consequently, considering the average loss per $250 bet on ML favorites, the anticipated loss would amount to approximately $3993.60 - $2937.24, which results in a remaining loss of $1,056.36, even with the stipulation of making all these $250 bets. This effectively reduces our overall loss rate to:
Yet again, this is derived from a limited dataset, and it’s possible that the occurrence of eight favorites leading by ten and still losing could be lower than usual. This remains something we need to evaluate.
Meanwhile, this promotion combined with backing underdogs appears to be advantageous. Assuming a $250 wager on each team with an established historical loss percentage of 3.91%, our losses would equate to:
2019 Season, Week 1:
Naturally, given that we’re transforming sixteen games into wins instead, we have an upfront savings of $4,000 without even considering the profits generated from those games. Let's factor that in now:
First, it’s essential to highlight that you would be ahead by $4000.00 - $2502.40 (assuming percentages remain steady), which means you'd effectively have $1,497.60 just by avoiding losses if your chosen team secures a ten-point lead but ultimately loses with these underdog bets. However, since your wager is recorded as a win, the net outcome looks like this:
So, your total betting would be 250 * 256, resulting in $64,000. With the return being $74,177.63, this calculates to 74177.63/64000 = 1.15902546875, or approximately a 15.903% gain if you could apply this promotion to every game that season, again presuming that the historical loss percentages generally hold true.
The 2017 results compellingly indicate that this promotion brings significant potential for profitable betting and suggests a promising strategy for minimizing losses. Now, let’s dive into the specifics.
1.) Cincinnati @ Indianapolis – We kick things off again with the Indianapolis Colts, who faltered late in the second quarter, relinquishing a 13-3 lead and ultimately losing 34-23.
The Colts were slight favorites at -110 on the Moneyline. Those who believed they were undervalued likely felt a sense of optimism when they took the lead 13-3, but it was ultimately fleeting.
2019 Season, Week 2:
2.) Chicago @ Green Bay – Chicago entered halftime with a commanding 17-0 lead, yet the tables turned drastically as Green Bay surged back to secure a 24-23 victory, including an impressive 21 points scored in the fourth quarter.
Green Bay held the advantage as a 6.5-point favorite, positioning Da’ Bears at approximately +224 for their Moneyline.
3.) Oakland @ Denver – Oakland led 12-0 at halftime but found themselves on the losing end, finishing the game with a score of 20-19.
2019 Season, Week 3:
This match also favored the eventual victors by 6.5 points, suggesting a Moneyline of about +224 for the Raiders.
4.) New York Jets @ Cleveland – The Jets were likely riding high after establishing a 14-0 lead by halftime, but Cleveland managed to rally and won the game 21-17.
Cleveland, the team that ultimately triumphed, was favored by three points, which indicates the Jets had a Moneyline around +135.
5.) Oakland @ Miami – Two weeks in a row? The Raiders jumped ahead with a 17-7 lead late in the third quarter but would fall to the Dolphins 28-20.
2019 Season, Week 4:
I've noted an actual Moneyline of +136 for the Raiders, so we’ll stick with that.
6.) Chicago @ Arizona – Arizona started strong with a 14-0 lead in the first quarter but failed to score again, losing 16-14.
Arizona was clearly a 5.5-point underdog in this matchup, so they managed to cover the spread. However, unless you had this promotion, they would have lost on Moneyline, which would have been about +195.
7.) Philadelphia @ Tennessee – The Eagles held a 17-3 lead during the third quarter, but things took a turn, leading them to a heartbreaking 26-23 overtime loss.
I have an actual Moneyline showing the Eagles at -142, which we'll reference.
8.) Cleveland @ Oakland – Despite being ahead 17-7 early in the second quarter, this game evolved into an intense contest that saw the Raiders clinch their first win of the season at 45-42 after overtime.
2019 Season, Week 5:
NOT APPLICABLE
2019 Season, Week 6:
A noteworthy detail is that at this point in the season, Oakland has experienced three games where they led by ten but ultimately lost out of the four matches they played.
Oakland was a 2.5-point favorite here, correlating to about -142 on the Moneyline.
9.) San Francisco @ L.A. Chargers – The 49ers boasted a 14-0 lead late in the first quarter but ended up returning home with a narrow 29-27 defeat as the Chargers made a comeback.
For this game, I have a Moneyline of +367 for the 49ers, which we will use.
10.) Kansas City @ Denver – In the Mile High City, Kansas City took a 23-13 lead into the fourth quarter, but the home team allowed two touchdowns from the Chiefs, finishing with a score of 27-23.
I have a Moneyline indicating Denver as the underdog at +162 for this matchup.
2019 Season, Week 7:
NOT APPLICABLE
2019 Season, Week 8:
11.) Miami @ Cincinnati – Miami led 14-0 at halftime, but due to a lack of offensive success in the second half and the Bengals’ stellar fourth quarter performance, Miami lost 27-17.
The Moneyline for Miami sits at +231 for this particular game.
12.) Chicago @ Miami – The Bears had a 21-10 lead halfway through the third quarter but ultimately lost 31-28 in overtime.
Chicago was positioned as a 6.5-point favorite here, translating to a Moneyline of approximately -282.
2019 Season, Week 9:
13.) Carolina @ Philadelphia – The Eagles took a commanding 17-0 lead into the fourth quarter, but the Panthers launched a strong comeback, scoring 21 unanswered points, finishing with a 21-17 victory.
The Eagles were 5-point favorites for this game, which indicates a Moneyline around -234 for them.
2019 Season, Week 10:
14.) New England @ Chicago – Chicago faced another week of disappointment as they squandered a ten-point lead. They started strong with a 17-7 edge over the Patriots early but ended up losing 38-31.
I have actual lines for this game indicating Chicago at +106 on the Moneyline, which is surprising given the matchup.
15.) New Orleans @ Baltimore – Once again, witnessing a 17-7 lead slip away for the Ravens, who were ahead of the Saints late into the third quarter. The Saints eventually turned the game around, winning 24-23 in a close finish.
Baltimore was actually the favored team in this match, with a spread of -2.5 points, corresponding to something like -142 on the Moneyline.
2019 Season, Week 11:
16.) San Francisco @ Arizona: The 49ers demonstrated strong defense early in the fourth quarter, enjoying a 15-3 lead. However, Josh Rosen connected for two touchdown passes, resulting in an 18-15 loss for San Francisco.
The 49ers were 2.5-point favorites in this clash, equating to another Moneyline around -142.
17.) Green Bay @ Los Angeles Rams – The Packers started with a 10-0 lead in the early second quarter, but ultimately lost to the Rams with a final score of 29-27.
As 7.5-point underdogs, Green Bay's Moneyline would be roughly +268, which we will use in our analysis.
18.) New York Giants @ San Francisco – Surprisingly, the Giants came out on top against the 49ers with a score of 27-23, despite the 49ers holding a 20-10 advantage midway through the third quarter. It's perplexing why they chose to falter against the struggling Giants.
The 49ers entered this game as three-point favorites, suggesting a Moneyline near -164.
2019 Season, Week 12:
NOT APPLICABLE
2019 Season, Week 13:
19.) Green Bay @ Seattle–In a matchup that showcased a different side of Aaron Rodgers but echoed the usual exploits of Russell Wilson, the Green Bay Packers had a strong start, going up 14-3 before the first quarter wrapped up. However, Wilson and his teammates, bolstered by their die-hard fans, made a remarkable comeback to secure a thrilling victory with a score of 27-24.
Due to a three-point spread, Green Bay's Moneyline was approximately +135 in this contest.
20.) Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville–The Steelers dominated for nearly three quarters, holding a commanding 16-0 lead with only two minutes left in the third quarter. Yet, Jacksonville rallied back to clinch the game with a 20-16 triumph, with a notable catch by Antonio Brown right at the end of the third.
Jacksonville entered the match as substantial underdogs, boasting a +186 Moneyline.
21.) Denver @ Los Angeles Chargers–During the mid-third quarter, the Chargers briefly led 19-7. However, the Broncos took control for the rest of the game, ultimately edging the victory at 23-22.
The Chargers were heavy favorites, with a Moneyline around -305, making this outcome quite surprising.
22.) New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles–The Giants appeared to be in a solid position with a 19-3 advantage not long before halftime. However, they fell into their familiar pattern of losing, with the Eagles taking the game 25-22.
As four-point underdogs, the Giants would have had a Moneyline around +171 in this contest.
23.) Arizona @ Los Angeles Chargers–Kudos to the Cardinals; they managed to lead by ten points during the game but suffered a significant defeat, ending up on the wrong side of a 45-10 score.
Unsurprisingly, the Moneyline for the Cardinals in this game was set high at +606.
2019 Season, Week 14:
24.) Miami @ Indianapolis–The Dolphins established a 24-14 lead in the final quarter but couldn't maintain it, ultimately falling 27-24.
Being nine-point underdogs, the Dolphins' Moneyline would have been approximately +314.
25.) Tennessee @ Houston–The Titans started strong, racing to an early ten-point lead. Unfortunately, they seemed to lose focus afterward and ended up losing 34-17.
This loss was expected since they were 3.5-point underdogs, equating to a Moneyline of around +156.
26.) New York Jets @ Tennessee–The Jets enjoyed a promising 10-0 lead heading into the second quarter, but that quickly vanished as they went on to lose 26-22 to the Titans.
With a generous 10.5 points given to them, the Jets' Moneyline would be about +389 for a potential win.
2019 Season, Week 15:
27.) Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh–Facing a discouraging 23-7 deficit at halftime, reminiscent of certain Super Bowls, the Chargers rallied in the second half, ultimately triumphing 33-30.
The Chargers were getting three points in this match, resulting in a Moneyline likely around +135.
2019 Season, Week 16:
28.) New York Jets at Buffalo–At first glance, Buffalo had a 14-3 lead after the first quarter, but the Jets pulled off a surprising 27-23 victory in the end.
Buffalo started as 4.5-point favorites, translating to a Moneyline of roughly -224.
29.) New Orleans @ Tampa Bay–A quick overview reveals that the Buccaneers led 14-3 at halftime but would go on to lose against the Saints, finishing the game 28-14.
The Buccaneers were ten-point underdogs in this game, resulting in a Moneyline of about +356.
30.) Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City–Even after establishing a 14-0 lead that extended into the second quarter, the Chiefs disappointingly lost with a narrow score of 29-28. Remarkably, they were ahead by ten or more at three different points in the game.
As 3.5-point favorites, the Chiefs' Moneyline would have been around -191.
2019 Season, Week 17:
31.) Green Bay @ New York Jets–In a high-scoring game that required overtime, the Packers emerged victorious with a score of 44-36, despite the Jets holding onto significant leads of over ten points at various stages.
It is no wonder that a team that squandered three ten-point leads would be deemed the underdog; the Jets' Moneyline was pegged at +139.
| Season | Week | Game | Losing Team +10 and MoneyLine | Favorites | Dogs |
| 2019 | 1 | BUF @ NYJ | -142 | 1 | 0 |
| 2019 | 1 | WASH @ PHI | 385 | 1 | 1 |
| 2019 | 1 | HOU @ NO | 224 | 1 | 2 |
| 2019 | 2 | KC @ OAK | 249 | 1 | 3 |
| 2019 | 3 | NYG @ TB | -234 | 2 | 3 |
| 2019 | 3 | HOU @ LAC | -191 | 3 | 3 |
| 2019 | 4 | PHI @ GB | 156 | 3 | 4 |
| 2019 | 4 | KC @ DET | 268 | 3 | 5 |
| 2019 | 4 | JAX @ DEN | -139 | 4 | 5 |
| 2019 | 6 | SEA @ CLE | -108 | 5 | 5 |
| 2019 | 6 | HOU @ KC | -191 | 6 | 5 |
| 2019 | 6 | DET @ GB | 156 | 6 | 6 |
| 2019 | 8 | DEN @ IND | 218 | 6 | 7 |
| 2019 | 8 | MIA @ PIT | 562 | 6 | 8 |
| 2019 | 9 | TB @ SEA | 171 | 6 | 9 |
| 2019 | 10 | KC @ TEN | -261 | 7 | 9 |
| 2019 | 10 | SEA @ SF | -210 | 8 | 9 |
| 2019 | 11 | DEN @ MIN | 289 | 8 | 10 |
| 2019 | 11 | ARZ @ SF | 357 | 8 | 11 |
| 2019 | 11 | NE @ PHI | 187 | 8 | 12 |
| 2019 | 13 | CHI @ DET | 195 | 8 | 13 |
| 2019 | 13 | WASH @ CAR | -538 | 9 | 13 |
| 2019 | 13 | TEN @ IND | 101 | 9 | 14 |
| 2019 | 13 | PHI @ MIA | -538 | 10 | 14 |
| 2019 | 13 | CLE @ PIT | -142 | 11 | 14 |
| 2019 | 14 | SF @ NO | -122 | 12 | 14 |
| 2019 | 14 | IND @ TB | 156 | 12 | 15 |
| 2019 | 14 | NYG @ PHI | 331 | 12 | 16 |
| 2019 | 15 | JAX @ OAK | -319 | 13 | 16 |
| 2019 | 16 | LAR @ SF | 249 | 13 | 17 |
| 2019 | 16 | NO @ TEN | 156 | 13 | 18 |
| 2019 | 16 | DET @ DEN | 289 | 13 | 19 |
| 2019 | 17 | GB @ DET | 465 | 13 | 20 |
2019 SEASON PERTINENT BREAKDOWN
32.) New York Giants @ Indianapolis–The Giants are not typically known for holding leads, but they certainly excel at losing them. They squandered leads of 14-0, 17-7, and 24-14, resulting in a close 28-27 loss.
Total Games: 256
Total Number Lead by 10+ and Lose: 33
Frequency: 12.890625%
Total Number of Favorites: 256
Total Number of Dogs: 256
Frequency, Favorites: 13/256 = 0.05078125 or 5.078%
Frequency, Dogs: 20/256 = 0.078125 or 7.8125%
ANALYSIS:
As ten-point underdogs, the Giants' Moneyline would reflect about +356 in this matchup.
33.) Atlanta @ Tampa Bay–While I might not have all the insights, I did notice that the Buccaneers were ahead 17-7 at the halftime break, only to fall short with a final score of 34-32.
The Colts were actually the underdogs by seven points in this matchup, which they managed to cover, corresponding to a MoneyLine of approximately +249.
256 * 250 * .0624 = $3993.6
4.) Cincinnati vs. Green Bay—Cincinnati went into halftime leading 21-7 but ultimately fell to Green Bay in overtime.
The Buccaneers entered as 2.5-point underdogs, translating to a Moneyline of approximately +117.
1.) -142 = $176.06
2.) -234 = $106.85
3.) -191 = $130.89
4.) -139 = $179.86
5.) -108 = $231.48
6.) -191 = $130.89
7.) -261 = $95.78
8.) -210 = $119.05
9.) -538 = $46.47
10.) -538 = $46.47
11.) -142 = $176.06
12.) -122 = $204.93
13.) -319 = $78.37
(2750 + 176.06 + 106.85 + 130.89 + 179.86 + 231.48 + 130.89 + 95.78 + 119.05 + 46.47 + 46.47 + 176.06 + 204.93 + 78.37) - 3993.6 = $479.56
34.) Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh–A last-second field goal just before halftime prevented the Bengals from leading 10-0, although they did briefly hold that edge before the Steelers clinched a 16-13 victory.
This was an impressive performance from a team that was a 14-point underdog, presenting a Moneyline around +573.
On the surface, this season appears to be much more favorable than 2017, primarily because we have a larger selection of relevant games. In fact, the number of applicable underdog matches this season is nearing the total games from 2018.
It's important to note, however, that even a slight increase in total games doesn’t automatically guarantee a better season overall, particularly for underdogs. If their matches do not yield substantial payouts, such as a +500 underdog winning is far more beneficial than bagging a couple of +120 wins.
2019 Frequency Favorites: 13/256 = 5.078%
Bet All Favorites Results: $479.56 Profit
Total Amount Bet: $64000
Profit Percentage: 64479.56/64000 = 0.749% Profits
Moving forward, we will disregard scenarios where there are no clear favorites and underdogs, as that would complicate things. By assuming all games had defined favorites and underdogs, we still find the following holds true:
The Jets appeared as nine-point underdogs entering the game, providing a MoneyLine of +361, marking our tenth instance.
You might remember that historically, favorites tend to lose about 6.24% of all bets, based on information from Wizard of Odds, which explains this figure.
Frequency Dogs: 20/256 = 0.078125 or 7.8125%
In this scenario, we managed to avoid losing bets with eleven favorites that had led by ten or more points at some stage of the match. This alone saves us $2,750, simply because of those non-losses. Naturally, those bets would be considered wins, so let's look at our total gains.
To make tracking easier, I will assign numbers since there are numerous instances to consider.
(Odds on Left; All Odds are + Odds)
1.) 385 = $962.50
2.) 224 = $560.00
3.) 249 = $622.50
4.) 156 = $390.00
5.) 268 = $670.00
6.) 156 = $390.00
7.) 218 = $545.00
8.) 562 = $1,405.00
9.) 171 = $427.50
10.) 289 = $722.50
11.) 357 = $892.54
12.) 187 = $467.50
13.) 195 = $487.50
14.) 101 = $252.50
15.) 156 = $390.00
16.) 331 = $827.50
17.) 249 = $622.50
18.) 156 = $390.00
19.) 289 = $722.54
20.) 465 = $1,162.50
Now, let's combine our totals and add that $2,750 we avoided losing:
2497.60 + 962.5 + 560 + 622.5 + 390 + 670 + 390 + 545 + 1405 + 427.5 + 722.5 + 892.54 + 467.5 + 487.5 + 252.5 + 390 + 827.5 + 622.5 + 390 + 722.54 + 1162.5 = $15,407.68 (Profits)
It's worth noting that our calculations indicated an overall profit of $360.33 if we had bet on all favorites this season.
You may be questioning whether three games could truly have such a significant effect, but the answer can be complicated. In light of the 2017 season, the $2,000 we saved from losses is considerable when compared to the $2,750 this season, which is crucial because, by nature, losses don’t yield profits when betting on favorites.
2019 Frequency Dogs: 20/256 = 0.078125 or 7.8125%
Bet All Dogs Results: $15,407.68
Total Amount Bet $64000
Profit Percentage: 79407.68/64000 = 1.240745 or 24.075%
| Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
| Games | 256 | 256 | 256 |
| Games Betting Favorites | 256 | 256 | 256 |
| Games Betting Dogs | 256 | 256 | 256 |
| Promotion Swing % Favorites | 3.13% | 4.30% | 5.08% |
| Promotion Swing % Dogs | 6.25% | 8.98% | 7.81% |
| Gain(Loss) Favorites | ($1,056.36) | $360.33 | $479.56 |
| Gain (Loss) % Favorites | -1.65% | 0.56% | 0.75% |
| Gain Dogs | $10,177.63 | $17,450.10 | $15,407.68 |
| Gain % Dogs | 15.90% | 27.27% | 24.08% |
| Gain Offsets | $9,121.27 | $17,810.43 | $15,887.24 |
| Gain % Offsets | 7.13% | 13.91% | 12.41% |
Additionally, in 2018, our victories resulted in larger profits when we did win in this way due to the average spreads in these situations. If we analyze 2017, we note that profits fell below $100 in four distinct games (4 out of 8, equating to 50%); conversely, in 2018, we saw only two games yield under $100 in profit (2 out of 11, translating to roughly 22.2%).
It seems we have adequately demonstrated that betting on underdogs is generally more favorable than betting on favorites in this scenario. And if that hasn’t satisfied your criteria, no worries—we’ll clarify further. Nevertheless, if someone remains keen on betting on favorites, it’s advisable to stick with smaller favorites. There are logical reasons for this:
1.) The value added comes not only from what you save but also from your potential profit. If you're betting on significant favorites, the returns on any wins will likely be minimal.
For instance, if the NFL permitted betting on a -10000 favorite for a single game, which is unlikely except in live betting situations, yes, if they lead by ten and still lose, you get your $250 back, yet your profit would only amount to $2.50.
2.) The expectation is generally that larger favorites will decisively win against their rivals; hence, despite trends from 2017, I suspect that 2018 will likely align more closely with anticipated outcomes for smaller favorites rather than larger ones. Keep in mind that a -250 favorite with a Moneyline bet of $250 still generates a $100 profit upon a win, and usually corresponds to a 5.5-6 point favorite.
With this context, it's time to gather our statistics regarding favorites:
2020 NFL SEASON
2020 Season, Week 1:
Now, let's shift our focus to examine how the underdogs performed:
Our initial observation is that the frequency of underdog success is significantly higher:
This is advantageous for us, but similar to the favorites, it's still contingent on the magnitude of the plus Moneyline achieved at these moments. As with favorites, one would expect these occurrences when teams are more evenly matched, but examining the teams that performed well, it seems the underdog status may not be quite as critical.
As a reminder, our historical expected loss when betting on every single dog on the Moneyline stands at:
In fact, we see an immediate profit potential from having 23 games that did not result in losses, swinging $5,750 back in our favor—it's practically unbelievable.
Now that we have that sorted out, let’s review the underdogs that managed to shine in 2018:
2020 Season, Week 2:
Now, it’s time to compile the information and ascertain our overall expected return from betting on underdogs across the board:
19.) Green Bay @ Seattle – In a matchup that wasn't typical for Aaron Rodgers but fit Russell Wilson perfectly, the Green Bay Packers started strong, leading 14-3 by the end of the first quarter. However, Wilson, his teammates, and their enthusiastic fans turned the tide, allowing the Seahawks to clinch a thrilling 27-24 victory.
The Packers entered this game as three-point underdogs, suggesting a Moneyline around +135.
20.) Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville – The Steelers dominated the early stages of the game, managing a 16-0 lead and looking secure with less than two minutes left in the third quarter. However, the Jaguars staged a comeback to snatch a 20-16 victory.
The Jaguars were significant underdogs in this matchup, with a Moneyline sitting at +186.
21.) Denver @ Los Angeles Chargers – At one point in the third quarter, the Chargers were ahead 19-7, but the Broncos found their rhythm and went on to take control of the game, ultimately winning 23-22.
Although the Chargers were heavy favorites with a Moneyline of -305, the game's outcome was unexpected.
22.) New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles – The Giants appeared to be in a commanding position with a 19-3 lead late in the second quarter, but true to form, they fell apart and lost to the Eagles by a score of 25-22.
2020 Season, Week 3:
Entering this game as four-point underdogs, the Giants would have had a Moneyline around +171.
23.) Arizona @ Los Angeles Chargers – The Cardinals certainly made a statement despite suffering a hefty 45-10 defeat, having even led by ten points at one stage.
Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals' Moneyline in this game was notably high at +606.
24.) Miami @ Indianapolis – The Dolphins had a promising 24-14 lead during the fourth quarter, but they crumbled under pressure, allowing the Colts to claim victory with a final score of 27-24.
Miami entered this contest as nine-point underdogs, translating to a Moneyline of approximately +314.
25.) Tennessee @ Houston – The Titans quickly established a ten-point lead, but went quiet for the rest of the night, ending up on the losing side with a score of 34-17.
2020 Season, Week 4:
This happened despite them being 3.5-point underdogs, which would equate to a Moneyline of around +156.
26.) New York Jets @ Tennessee – The Jets surged ahead to a 10-0 lead as they moved into the second quarter, but that advantage slipped away as they lost to the Titans 26-22.
The Jets received a 10.5-point handicap in this game, translating to a Moneyline of approximately +389 for those anticipating their win.
27.) Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh – The Chargers faced a 23-7 deficit at halftime, reminiscent of a certain Super Bowl; however, they rallied in the second half to secure a 33-30 victory.
2020 Season, Week 5:
With the Chargers being three-point favorites, their Moneyline could have been around +135.
28.) New York Jets at Buffalo – Initially, Buffalo enjoyed a 14-3 lead at the end of the first quarter, but the Jets overturned the game, winning 27-23 in the end.
Buffalo were 4.5-point favorites, approximately equating to a Moneyline of about -224.
29.) New Orleans @ Tampa Bay – I find these quick summaries intriguing. The Buccaneers led 14-3 at halftime but ultimately lost the game 28-14.
Entering this competition as ten-point underdogs, the Buccaneers had a Moneyline likely around +356 due to their struggles.
30.) Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City – Despite seizing a 14-0 lead which they maintained into the second quarter, the Chiefs ended up losing 29-28. Interestingly, they were ahead by ten points multiple times during the game.
The Chiefs were favored by 3.5 points, placing their Moneyline at about -191.
31.) Green Bay @ New York Jets – The Packers triumphed in an electrifying game that ended 44-36 after overtime, despite the Jets holding leads of 10 or more points on several occasions: 14-0 early in the second quarter, 21-7 midway through the second quarter, and 35-20 late in the third.
It’s not surprising that a team that relinquished three ten-point leads would be deemed the underdog, and indeed, the Jets were, with a Moneyline of +139.
32.) New York Giants @ Indianapolis – The Giants don’t frequently take the lead in games, but when they do, they certainly have a knack for losing those leads. In a close 28-27 loss, they squandered leads of 14-0, 17-7, and 24-14.
2020 Season, Week 6:
As ten-point underdogs in this matchup, the Giants' Moneyline was likely around +356.
33.) Atlanta @ Tampa Bay – While I’m not an expert, I know that the Buccaneers led at halftime with a score of 17-7, yet ended up losing 34-32 by the end of the match.
The Buccaneers were considered 2.5-point underdogs going into this game, which would translate to a Moneyline around +117.
34.) Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh – A last-minute field goal in the second quarter meant the Bengals couldn’t go into halftime up 10-0, but they indeed held that lead briefly in a game that ultimately concluded with the Steelers winning 16-13.
2020 Season, Week 7:
For a team starting as 14-point underdogs, this performance was commendable, reflecting a Moneyline of around +573.
On the face of it, this season seems to promise more success compared to 2017, largely due to the increased number of relevant games. We currently have nearly as many qualifying underdog games as we had in total for 2018.
It’s worth noting that a season with just one or two extra games could still end up being less profitable overall, especially for underdogs, if those games don’t yield significant wins on higher Moneylines. For instance, hitting a single bet at +500 is far more lucrative than winning two at +120.
We're opting to disregard Pick 'Ems, as they complicate the analysis unnecessarily. Thus, we will consider only one favorite and one underdog for each game, which simplifies our findings:
It's important to keep in mind that historically, favorites lose roughly 6.24% of the total bets placed, according to Wizard of Odds.
In this scenario, we had eleven favorites that didn’t lose their respective bets since they led by ten points or more during the game. This alone translates to a savings of $2,750, simply because those bets held firm. Naturally, these are regarded as wins, so let’s calculate our overall earnings.
2020 Season, Week 8:
To simplify tracking, I’ll assign numbers to each of these instances given their volume.
Now, let’s tally up our total and add it to the $2,750 we saved:
Keep in mind, the initial figure reflects what could be a potential loss. Therefore, betting only on favorites this season would have resulted in a profit of $360.33.
You may wonder whether three games truly influenced the outcome to that extent, and sometimes, the answer is yes. Reflecting on the 2017 season highlights that we only saved $2,000 compared to $2,750 in 2018, which is quite pivotal since you don't profit from losses when betting on favorites.
Another significant difference in 2018 is that our winnings increased substantially in profit margins when we succeeded. This can be attributed to the average spread at which these situations unfolded. In 2017, we saw profits of less than $100 on four different occasions (which is 50% of our cases); whereas in 2018, only two out of eleven games (roughly 22.2%) yielded profits under $100.
We've shown that betting on underdogs is generally more advantageous than favoring the favorites in this promotional context, and if that argument isn't compelling yet, don’t worry; more evidence will come. Should someone be intent on betting on favorites, a smaller favorite may present a better opportunity for profit. This notion makes sense for several reasons:
1.) The benefits hinge not only on money saved, but also on potential winnings. Betting on overwhelming favorites limits your chances for significant returns if a win occurs.
For instance, imagine if there was a hypothetical -10000 favorite that you could place a pre-game bet on. In such a case, if the team goes up by ten and ends up losing, you receive your $250 back, but your profit would only amount to $2.50.
2020 Season, Week 9:
2.) Generally, the key expectation is that significant favorites will decisively outperform the opponent. Thus, despite the 2017 observations, I believe 2018 will follow suit more closely with smaller favorites, rather than larger ones. To illustrate, a -250 favorite who has a $250 bet on the Moneyline would net you a profit around $100, fitting within the realm of a traditional 5.5-6 point favorite.
With that outlined, let’s compile our favorite statistics:
Now that we have that context, let’s analyze the performance of our underdogs:
The first thing to note is our frequency of underdog wins is considerably higher:
This is a positive indication for us, but, similar to favorites, the profit margins are highly dependent on the magnitude of the plus Moneyline at play. Usually, one would expect favorable results to occur more frequently during tightly contested matches, but based on the teams that have accomplished this, it may not be exclusively relevant in the context of underdogs.
Previously, we acknowledged that the anticipated loss when betting on every dog on the Moneyline would typically result in:
2020 Season, Week 10:
This merely highlights that we are IMMEDIATELY in the plus once more, thanks to having 23 games that didn't incur a $250 loss. This alone returns $5,750 to our advantage, which is just astonishing.
With that understood, let’s delve into the underdogs who succeeded in 2018:
Now, let’s finalize the totals and calculate our expected overall profit from betting on underdogs across the board:
19.) Green Bay @ Seattle – The Green Bay Packers started strong, leading 14-3 at the end of the first quarter, a scenario uncommon for Aaron Rodgers, yet typical for Russell Wilson. However, the Seahawks rallied with a spirited effort, spearheaded by Wilson and the support of their enthusiastic fans, turning the tide and securing a 27-24 victory.
2020 Season, Week 11:
In this match, Green Bay was favored by three points, which would put their Moneyline odds at roughly +135.
20.) Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville – The Steelers dominated for nearly three quarters, even holding a solid 16-0 edge before the end of the third quarter, save for one pass to Antonio Brown late in that quarter. But Jacksonville made a valiant comeback, ultimately winning 20-16.
Jacksonville entered this game as significant underdogs, providing a Moneyline of around +186.
21.) Denver @ Los Angeles Chargers – The Chargers were in control, leading 19-7 midway through the third quarter. Yet, the Broncos rallied to dominate the closing moments of the game and clinched the win with a score of 23-22.
2020 Season, Week 12:
With Moneyline odds around -305, the Chargers were expected to win, making their defeat a surprising outcome.
22.) New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles – The Giants initially appeared to be in command with a 19-3 lead late in the second quarter. However, they reverted to their familiar habit of losing, with the Eagles ultimately triumphing 25-22.
As four-point underdogs going into the game, the Giants would translate to Moneyline odds of approximately +171.
23.) Arizona @ Los Angeles Chargers – The Cardinals experienced a fascinating game, where despite trailing significantly, they once led 10-0 before suffering a heavy 45-10 defeat.
2020 Season, Week 13:
Their Moneyline odds checked in at +606, showcasing the improbability of their comeback.
24.) Miami @ Indianapolis – The Dolphins held a 24-14 lead late in the fourth quarter but faltered, allowing the Colts to snatch a 27-24 win.
With the Dolphins being nine-point underdogs, their Moneyline was around +314.
25.) Tennessee @ Houston – The Titans seized an early ten-point advantage but seemed to lose momentum during the game, eventually falling 34-17.
They weren’t expected to win, as they were 3.5-point underdogs, which equated to a Moneyline of roughly +156.
26.) New York Jets @ Tennessee – The Jets jumped out to a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter but soon watched it slip away, suffering a 26-22 defeat against the Titans.
2020 Season, Week 14:
Given their 10.5 point cushion, the Jets' Moneyline would be about +389 if someone decided to wager on them.
27.) Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh – The Chargers went into halftime trailing 23-7, echoing a famous Super Bowl loss, yet they came back strong in the second half to post a 33-30 victory.
2020 Season, Week 15:
With the Chargers receiving three points, their Moneyline might’ve been close to +135.
28.) New York Jets at Buffalo – Buffalo initially led 14-3 at the close of the first quarter, only for the Jets to stage a comeback and finish with a 27-23 win.
2020 Season, Week 16:
Buffalo started off as 4.5 point favorites, giving them a Moneyline around -224.
29.) New Orleans @ Tampa Bay – I find these rapid summaries fascinating. The Buccaneers had a solid halftime lead at 14-3, yet they ended up losing the game 28-14.
Given that the Buccaneers were ten-point underdogs, their Moneyline was roughly +356.
30.) Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City – Even after taking a commanding 14-0 lead into the second quarter, the Chiefs shockingly lost 29-28. Intriguingly, they led by ten or more points three times during this encounter.
2020 Season, Week 17:
As 3.5 point favorites, the Chiefs’ Moneyline was approximately -191.
31.) Green Bay @ New York Jets – The Packers triumphed in a thrilling overtime battle, winning 44-36 against the Jets, who led multiple times with advantages of 10 or more points, including 14-0 and 21-7 in the first half.
| Season | Week | Game | Losing Team +10 and MoneyLine | Favorites | Dogs |
| 2020 | 1 | CHI @ DET | -140 | 1 | 0 |
| 2020 | 1 | PHI @ WASH | -261 | 2 | 0 |
| 2020 | 1 | ARZ @ SF | -282 | 3 | 0 |
| 2020 | 2 | ATL @ DAL | 135 | 3 | 1 |
| 2020 | 2 | DET @ GB | 226 | 3 | 2 |
| 2020 | 2 | KC @ LAC | 302 | 3 | 3 |
| 2020 | 2 | NO @ LV | -211 | 4 | 3 |
| 2020 | 3 | CHI @ ATL | -140 | 5 | 3 |
| 2020 | 3 | TEN @ MIN | 135 | 5 | 4 |
| 2020 | 3 | HOU @ PIT | 156 | 5 | 5 |
| 2020 | 4 | NO @ DET | 135 | 5 | 6 |
| 2020 | 4 | LAC @ TB | 292 | 5 | 7 |
| 2020 | 5 | TB @ CHI | -164 | 6 | 7 |
| 2020 | 5 | LV @ KC | -538 | 7 | 7 |
| 2020 | 5 | NYG @ DAL | 268 | 7 | 8 |
| 2020 | 5 | MIN @ SEA | 252 | 7 | 9 |
| 2020 | 5 | LAC @ NO | 281 | 7 | 10 |
| 2020 | 6 | CIN @ IND | 296 | 7 | 11 |
| 2020 | 6 | GB @ TB | -131 | 8 | 11 |
| 2020 | 7 | NYG @ PHI | 188 | 8 | 12 |
| 2020 | 7 | BUF @ NYJ | 289 | 8 | 13 |
| 2020 | 7 | SEA @ ARI | -191 | 9 | 13 |
| 2020 | 8 | PIT @ BAL | -190 | 10 | 13 |
| 2020 | 8 | LAC @ DEN | -164 | 11 | 13 |
| 2020 | 8 | NO @ CHI | 195 | 11 | 14 |
| 2020 | 8 | TB @ NYG | 494 | 11 | 15 |
| 2020 | 9 | CAR @ KC | 356 | 11 | 16 |
| 2020 | 9 | PIT @ DAL | 573 | 11 | 17 |
| 2020 | 9 | NE @ NYJ | 340 | 11 | 18 |
| 2020 | 10 | BUF @ ARIZ | 135 | 11 | 19 |
| 2020 | 10 | SF @ NO | 356 | 11 | 20 |
| 2020 | 11 | TEN @ BAL | -282 | 12 | 20 |
| 2020 | 11 | GB @ IND | 105 | 12 | 21 |
| 2020 | 12 | CAR @ MIN | 135 | 12 | 22 |
| 2020 | 12 | ARZ @ NE | -110 | 13 | 22 |
| 2020 | 13 | DET @ CHI | -164 | 14 | 22 |
| 2020 | 13 | JAX @ MIN | 389 | 14 | 23 |
| 2020 | 13 | WASH @ PIT | -261 | 15 | 23 |
| 2020 | 14 | KC @ MIA | 249 | 15 | 24 |
| 2020 | 15 | TB @ ATL | 224 | 15 | 25 |
| 2020 | 16 | IND @ PIT | -122 | 16 | 25 |
| 2020 | 16 | PHI @ DAL | -164 | 17 | 25 |
| 2020 | 17 | SEA @ SF | 249 | 17 | 26 |
2020 SEASON PERTINENT BREAKDOWN
Considering their tendency to collapse under pressure, the Jets were underdogs, reflected in their Moneyline odds of +139.
Total Games: 256
Total Lead by 10+ and Lose: 43
Frequency: 0.16796875 or 16.796875%
Total Number of Favorites: 256
Total Number of Dogs: 256
Frequency, Favorites: 17/256 = 0.06640625 or 6.641%
Frequency, Dogs: 26/256 = 0.1015625 or 10.156%
ANALYSIS:
32.) New York Giants @ Indianapolis – Although the Giants aren't typically known for taking leads, they failed spectacularly by losing a match they led several times, ultimately falling 28-27.
They were ten-point underdogs in this event, resulting in a Moneyline of around +356.
33.) Atlanta @ Tampa Bay – I don’t have all the details, but I know the Buccaneers led 17-7 at halftime, only to lose the game 34-32.
Entering the game as 2.5 point underdogs, that gives an approximate Moneyline of +117.
Let’s get down to business:
256 * 250 * .0624 = $3993.6
4.) Cincinnati vs. Green Bay—Cincinnati went into halftime leading 21-7 but ultimately fell to Green Bay in overtime.
34.) Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh – A last-minute field goal at the end of the second quarter nearly saw the Bengals emerging with a 10-0 lead, yet they fell 16-13 in the end.
1.) -140 = $178.58
2.) -261 = $95.78
3.) -282 = $88.65
4.) -211 = $118.48
5.) -140 = $178.58
6.) -164 = $152.45
7.) -538 = $46.48
8.) -131 = $190.85
9.) -191 = $130.89
10.) -190 = $131.58
11.) -164 = $152.45
12.) -282 = $88.65
13.) -110 = $227.27
14.) -164 = $152.45
15.) -261 = $95.78
16.) -122 = $204.92
17.) -164 = $152.44
256.4 + 178.58 + 95.78 + 88.65 + 118.48 + 178.58 + 152.45 + 46.48 + 190.85 + 130.89 + 131.58 + 152.45 + 88.65 + 227.27 + 152.45 + 95.78 + 204.92 + 152.44 = $2,642.68 (Profits)
This was quite an impressive showing for 14-point underdogs, resulting in a Moneyline of around +573.
Looking ahead, this season appears promising compared to 2017, primarily due to playing a higher percentage of relevant matches. We nearly matched the number of applicable underdogs this season with our total games from 2018.
It's crucial to note that even with a slightly heightened performance in one season versus another, it doesn't necessarily guarantee total profits, especially for underdogs unless there are substantial returns on higher odds.
1.) 135 = $337.50
2.) 226 = $565.00
3.) 302 = $755.00
4.) 135 = $337.50
5.) 156 = $390.00
6.) 135 = $337.50
7.) 292 = $730.00
8.) 268 = $670.00
9.) 252 = $630.00
10.) 281 = $702.50
11.) 296 = $740.00
12.) 188 = $470.00
13.) 289 = $722.50
14.) 195 = $487.50
15.) 356 = $890.00
16.) 494 = $1,235.00
17.) 573 = $1,432.50
18.) 340 = $850.00
19.) 135 = $337.50
20.) 356 = $890.00
21.) 105 = $262.50
22.) 135 = $337.50
23.) 389 = $972.50
24.) 249 = $622.50
25.) 224 = $560.00
26.) 249 = $622.50
3997.60 + 337.5 + 565 + 755 + 337.5 + 390 + 337.5 + 730 + 670 + 630 + 702.5 + 740 + 470 + 722.50 + 487.50 + 890 + 1235 + 1432.5 + 850 + 337.5 + 890 + 262.5 + 337.50 + 972.5 + 622.50 + 560 + 622.5 = $20,885.10 (Profits)
In addressing straight bets, we’re skipping the Pick ‘Ems to keep things simple, but we still maintain one favorite and one underdog concept throughout.
Historically, we recognize that favorites tend to lose about 6.24% of the total bets made, and that’s where these numbers originate.
| Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Games | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 |
| Games Betting Favorites | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 |
| Games Betting Dogs | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 |
| Promotion Swing % Favorites | 3.13% | 4.30% | 5.08% | 6.64% |
| Promotion Swing % Dogs | 6.25% | 8.98% | 7.81% | 10.16% |
| Gain(Loss) Favorites | ($1,056.36) | $360.33 | $479.56 | $2,642.68 |
| Gain (Loss) % Favorites | -1.65% | 0.56% | 0.75% | 4.13% |
| Gain Dogs | $10,177.63 | $17,450.10 | $15,407.68 | $20,885.10 |
| Gain % Dogs | 15.90% | 27.27% | 24.08% | 32.63% |
| Gain Offsets | $9,121.27 | $17,810.43 | $15,887.24 | $23,527.78 |
| Gain % Offsets | 7.13% | 13.91% | 12.41% | 18.38% |
In this analysis, there are eleven favorites who didn't lose their bets, owing to leading by at least 10 points at some stage. This precaution saves $2,750 based purely on those bets not being counted as losses.
Now let's calculate our overall gains from winnings along with our prior savings.
To simplify tracking, I will number the upcoming entries since there are a lot.
Let's compile all these figures and add them to the saved $2,750.
2021 NFL SEASON
2021 Season, Week 1:
Initially, we calculated potential losses, indicating that betting entirely on favorites this season would, in fact, yield a profit of $360.33.
You may be questioning if three games had a significant impact, and sometimes they do. For instance, during the 2017 season, we saved only $2,000 compared to the $2,750 savings this season, marking the main difference, as you don't profit on favorites as often. Vegas Insider In contrast, 2018 observed a notable increase in profit margins when winning through this approach, correlating to the averaging spread at which these instances occurred. In 2017, we noticed under $100 in gains in four instances compared with only two times under $100 in the eleven games of 2018.
The evidence suggests that wagering on underdogs yields better results than betting on favorites, and if you're set on wagering favorites, it's wise to stick to those with smaller spreads.
1.) The added value isn't only in savings but also in potential winnings. Wagering on heavy favorites doesn’t optimize earnings when they do win.
For instance, hypothetically, if NFL offered a -10000 favorite bet pre-game, results indicate winning only yields minimal profit if they lead by ten and ultimately lose.
2.) The expectation remains higher for larger favorites to win convincingly, which tends to hold more true for smaller favorites based on perceptions formed over recent seasons.
A -250 favorite on a $250 Moneyline bet guarantees a $100 profit if successful, which integrates into the typical 5.5-6 point spread range.
2021 Season, Week 2:
Next, let's examine our statistics regarding favorites.
Now, let’s drill down into the performances of our underdogs.
An important takeaway is that our frequency of underdog outcomes appears significantly better.
This trend is exciting, but similar to favorites, the size of the plus Moneyline plays a crucial role during these moments. We typically witness this trend between closely matched teams, yet some of the results challenge that expectation.
As a reminder, the anticipated loss when betting every underdog on the Moneyline would be:
To put it simply, having 23 games result without losing ensures we're immediately profitable to the tune of $5,750, which is a remarkable turnaround.
2021 Season, Week 3:
With that established, we now look at the underdogs that performed well in 2018.
Let’s aggregate these results to gauge our expected overall profit when betting on underdogs across the board.
To put it simply, if the anticipated loss percentage for consistently backing underdogs remained consistent under standard conditions, by taking advantage of this promotion, your losses would transform from $2,502.40 into a gain of $17,450.10.
We are placing an identical wager of $64,000, aiming for a total return of $81,450.10. Now, let’s calculate the percentage of our potential profit:
2021 Season, Week 4:
Let’s gather some performance statistics:
Now, you may be curious about the concepts of 'Gain Offsets' and 'Gain Percentage Offsets.' Here's what they mean:
When I refer to 'Offsets,' I'm talking about two or more participants engaging in the same promotion but selecting opposite teams on the Moneyline. In cases such as a 'Risk-Free' bet or a cash back offer, the advantage is that one bettor wins while the other loses. However, it's crucial to note that betting on underdogs typically yields a significantly better expected value.
Furthermore, when I evaluate offsets, my goal is to ensure that profit is assured, which is decidedly not the case in this scenario. In reality, you'll face losses in every match where a team doesn't maintain a lead of 10 points or more, and you will only profit in games where that condition is met.
Consequently, I find offsets to yield positive results only if both outcomes (the favorite and the underdog) are generally favorable. If this isn't the situation—like it was in 2018, though not in 2017—then engaging in offsets can actually work against you, as you would be wagering more and diminishing your overall value.
It's important to note that while offsets in 2018 might superficially have harmed your likelihood of profiting, both options would have still been beneficial if you'd had the chance to bet this promotion at any time, making offsets a more profitable venture.***
2021 Season, Week 5:
***Naturally, if two individuals consistently wagered on underdogs instead of one opposing the other, the outcome would have been far better.
In essence, while I find offsets an interesting concept to explore, my solid advice remains: DO NOT OFFSET THIS PROMOTION UNLESS THERE'S A WAY TO PARTICIPATE FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON. EVEN THEN, HAVING TWO PEOPLE BETTING ON UNDERDOGS IS PREFERABLE.
Moreover, you should never offset this promotion against someone who is betting on the opposing side for just a single game, as there is over an 85% chance that the losing team will not have led by ten points, which means you could only incur a loss.
For example, let's examine the Moneylines for an NFL game in Week 1:
There are consensus odds for the matchup between New Orleans and Atlanta, detailed as follows:
Imagine you and a friend decide to offset your bets on this game, and New Orleans comes out on top:
Now we need to analyze the implied winning probabilities, which can be sourced from BoydsBets. We'll check the consensus spreads on VI and convert them using WoO to get our winning probabilities:
With that done, we can now assess our financial outcomes alongside our win percentages and see how this plays out:
2021 Season, Week 6:
As indicated, the net expectation shows that we would lose $26,388, which is reasonable considering a total wager of $500, reflecting an anticipated loss of about 5.28% of the overall amount wagered.
Now, if we adjust our probabilities slightly to reflect the numbers from 2018, here’s the updated expectation:
2021 Season, Week 7:
In summary, we anticipate a profit of $54.77528125 if we successfully utilize this promotion for offsets, leading to an expected gain percentage of approximately 10.96%. This falls just shy of our projected gain percentage using offsets from 2018, largely due to variations in specific game lines.
The previous equation may need some clarification, so let’s break it down using parentheses:
2021 Season, Week 8:
Set 1: This represents the potential profit in an offset scenario where the Falcons win without New Orleans ever holding a lead of at least 10 points, based on adjusted probabilities.
Set 2: Here, we look at the situation where the Falcons win, and the Saints at one point held a 10-point lead. The profit of $589.80 derives from $482.50 when the Falcons win and $107.30 for the Saints winning, as both bets result in a win.***
***You may be questioning, 'What happens to the $250 that isn’t lost anymore?' It's already included in the profit amount. Remember, not losing $250 is not the same as gaining it; thus, $107.30 is the real profit from the New Orleans bet, which would have been a loss otherwise, giving it a win.
***You might wonder, 'Why do you factor in the $250 that isn’t lost in the main example?' The rationale is that effectively, that $250 represents a gain. When offsetting, ignoring ties, one of those $250 amounts will be lost—that's the essence of offsetting. The goal is that one bet loses while the other wins.
2021 Season, Week 9:
Set 3: This reflects a similar situation, except with New Orleans winning while the Falcons have a lead of ten or more at some point. Both wagers cash in, yielding the same profits as Set 2.
Set 4: In this scenario, New Orleans wins, and the Falcons do not take a lead at any point.
2021 Season, Week 10:
NOT APPLICABLE
2021 Season, Week 11:
NOT APPLICABLE
2021 Season, Week 12:
Offset Analysis–The breakdown indicates that we lose $142.70 about 60% of the time because New Orleans wins without Atlanta ever leading by 10+. Conversely, we win $232.50 when Atlanta prevails without New Orleans holding a 10-point lead at any point, which occurs 26.7% of the time, although it would be an unwise betting strategy otherwise. Roughly 13.28% of the time, with offsets considered, one team wins while the loser's team had a 10-point lead during the game. The exact actions of either team don't hold significant weight here (with offsets) since both bets come out as wins.
In conclusion, we will analyze what the last three seasons of outcomes reveal, but my general recommendation is to avoid offsets for this promotion for several reasons:
1.) I typically only support offsets when they outright secure a profit or eliminate the risk of losing money altogether. The dynamics of this promotion do not provide that guarantee; depending on the line adjustments, the two participants betting offsets will likely incur losses on most games.
2.) The underdog holds an overwhelmingly greater value in this promotion compared to the favorite. Presently, the favorite doesn't seem to offer any promising returns on average. It may prove positive as we approach the season, having been favorable in 2018, but the value of simply having two players both betting on underdogs is significantly higher than offsetting bets.
2021 Season, Week 13:
Alright, we have a clearer vision of the trajectory we are taking here; let’s transition into the following season.
The 2018 season offered much greater results than 2017. The underdogs shifted from being exceptionally valuable for this promotion to nearly unparalleled. Notably, even the favorites, previously viewed with skepticism according to the 2017 results, managed to garner slight profitability with this promotion.
2021 Season, Week 14:
We took a deep dive into the realm of offset betting, and while we will revisit this option in the final sections of this page, my usual stance is to advocate for offset betting only when there's an absolute guarantee of profit regardless of any outcomes, which isn't generally applicable in this instance. This fundamentally undermines the purpose of offset betting for me.
Additionally, the exceptional value of underdogs with this promotion is so overwhelmingly strong that justifying offsets—even with a 100% assurance of profit—would be incredibly challenging. Having two individuals both backing underdogs is immensely more beneficial in this scenario.
2021 Season, Week 15:
1.) Buffalo @ New York Jets–The Jets narrowly lost this match with a final score of 17-16, even though they had a substantial lead at one point, up 16-0 in the third quarter.
Initially, the Jets were 2.5 point favorites, translating to a Moneyline of around -142 if one were to bet straight up.
2.) Washington @ Philadelphia—The Washington Whatever-The-Hells started strongly, holding a 10-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, yet eventually succumbed to the Eagles, finishing the match at 32-27. Washington had maintained a commanding position with a 20-7 lead by halftime.
This game had a clear Moneyline for Washington at +385, making it rather appealing if you had access to this promotion!
3.) Houston @ New Orleans–For the season's inaugural Monday night game, the Texans secured a 14-3 advantage at halftime, only for circumstances to evolve unfavorably, concluding with a score of 30-28.
As 6.5 point underdogs, the Texans covered, leading to a Moneyline in the ballpark of +224.
2021 Season, Week 16:
4.) Kansas City @ Oakland–This game was particularly captivating as all scoring occurred in the initial half. Oakland raced ahead with a 10-0 lead, but Kansas City exploded with 28 points in the second quarter, sealing the deal.
As seven point underdogs, the Raiders had a Moneyline of around +249.
***Regardless of whether Oakland was rebranded as Las Vegas this year, the website I am referencing consistently lists them as Las Vegas, and this doesn’t alter the analysis. I recognize they represent Las Vegas from 2020 onward.
5.) New York Giants @ Tampa Bay–In the rare situation where the Giants manage to win, it often seems to be from a trailing position. In this case, Tampa Bay led 28-10 at halftime, but the Giants rallied on offense and limited the Buccaneers to merely one field goal on defense, ultimately edging out a 32-31 victory.
2021 Season, Week 17:
As five point favorites, Tampa Bay had a Moneyline that appeared around -234.
6.) Houston @ Los Angeles Chargers–This matchup was straightforward; the Chargers were up 17-7 at the half, but in a surprising twist, the Texans came back to snatch a 27-20 victory. This will be the conclusion of Watson jokes on this page, I assure you.
Again, the Chargers were the team giving away the points, specifically 3.5, which suggests a Moneyline of around -191, albeit not precisely.
To put it differently, if we consider the average loss that would occur from making blind bets on every underdog under typical conditions, thanks to this promotion, instead of losing $2,502.40, you would actually end up with a profit of $17,450.10.
We're placing the same wager of $64,000, aiming for a return of $81,450.10, so let's calculate our profit percentage:
Now, let’s take a moment to examine our ongoing statistics:
You might be curious about the terms 'Gain Offsets' and 'Gain Percentage Offsets.' Allow me to clarify their meanings:
When I mention 'Offsets,' I am referring to a situation where two individuals are engaged in the same promotion and are making opposing bets on the Moneyline. Typically, with offers like 'Risk-Free' bets or cash back promotions, the advantage is that one player wins while the other loses. However, I must point out that merely betting on underdogs tends to yield much better expected value (EV).
2021 Season, Week 18 (Finally!):
Moreover, when I analyze offsets, I usually aim to ensure a profit is guaranteed, which isn't the case here. In fact, every game where a team does not take a lead of at least 10 points will result in a loss, and financial gain will only occur in the games where that threshold is met.
Thus, I only find offsets beneficial if both teams—favorites and underdogs—are generally positive bets to begin with. If that is not the reality, as seen in 2018 (unlike in 2017), then offsets would result in a net loss, as you would be wagering more and diminishing your value.
While it's true that using offsets in 2018 may have superficially decreased your percentage value, since both sides would have been profitable under any conditions if you had access to this promotion throughout the season, betting offsets would have actually yielded greater profits.
Clearly, two individuals consistently betting on underdogs would provide a far superior outcome compared to one person betting on underdogs while the other offsetting those bets.
| Season | Week | Game | Losing Team +10 and MoneyLine | Favorites | Dogs |
| 2021 | 1 | PIT @ BUF | -286 | 1 | 0 |
| 2021 | 1 | CLE @ KC | 197 | 1 | 1 |
| 2021 | 1 | BAL @ LV | -179 | 2 | 1 |
| 2021 | 2 | MIN @ ARZ | 163 | 2 | 2 |
| 2021 | 2 | TEN @ SEA | -278 | 3 | 2 |
| 2021 | 2 | KC @ BAL | -196 | 4 | 2 |
| 2021 | 3 | MIA @ LV | 151 | 4 | 3 |
| 2021 | 3 | SEA @ MIN | -127 | 5 | 3 |
| 2021 | 4 | JAX @ CIN | 270 | 5 | 4 |
| 2021 | 4 | WASH @ ATL | 107 | 5 | 5 |
| 2021 | 4 | NYG @ NO | -333 | 6 | 5 |
| 2021 | 5 | PHI @ CAR | -141 | 7 | 5 |
| 2021 | 5 | NE @ HOU | 296 | 7 | 6 |
| 2021 | 5 | CLE @ LAC | 114 | 7 | 7 |
| 2021 | 5 | IND @ BAL | 278 | 7 | 8 |
| 2021 | 6 | MIA @ JAX | -128 | 8 | 8 |
| 2021 | 7 | DET @ LAR | 786 | 8 | 9 |
| 2021 | 8 | TEN @ IND | -154 | 9 | 9 |
| 2021 | 8 | CIN @ NYJ | -556 | 10 | 9 |
| 2021 | 9 | MIN @ BAL | 253 | 10 | 10 |
| 2021 | 12 | NYJ @ HOU | -145 | 11 | 10 |
| 2021 | 12 | TB @ IND | 130 | 11 | 11 |
| 2021 | 13 | SF @ SEA | -131 | 12 | 11 |
| 2021 | 14 | CHI @ GB | 461 | 12 | 12 |
| 2021 | 15 | NYJ @ MIA | 343 | 12 | 13 |
| 2021 | 15 | TEN @ PIT | -104 | 13 | 13 |
| 2021 | 15 | WASH @ PHI | 351 | 13 | 14 |
| 2021 | 16 | SF @ TEN | -175 | 14 | 14 |
| 2021 | 16 | CHI @ SEA | -312 | 15 | 14 |
| 2021 | 17 | KC @ CIN | -185 | 16 | 14 |
| 2021 | 17 | TB @ NYJ | 580 | 16 | 15 |
| 2021 | 17 | PHI @ WASH | 206 | 16 | 16 |
| 2021 | 17 | LAR @ BAL | 253 | 16 | 17 |
| 2021 | 17 | CHI @ MIN | 157 | 16 | 18 |
| 2021 | 17 | SF @ LAR | -179 | 17 | 18 |
2021 SEASON PERTINENT BREAKDOWN
Put simply, my exploration of offsets stems from a place of curiosity, yet I firmly advise against utilizing offsets for this promotion unless you have the opportunity to participate for an entire season. Even then, having both participants bet on underdogs exclusively is a better approach.
It's particularly ill-advised to offset this promotion against someone who is choosing the opposite for just one game, given that there is over an 85% probability that the losing team will not have claimed a lead of ten points at any stage, resulting in a guaranteed loss.
Total Games: 272
Total Lead by 10+ and Lose: 35
Frequency: 35/272 = 0.12867647058 or 12.868%
Total Number of Favorites: 272
Total Number of Dogs: 272
Frequency, Favorites: 17/272 = .0625 or 6.25%
Frequency, Dogs: 18/272 = 0.06617647058 or 6.618%
ANALYSIS:
For instance, let us study the Moneylines for an NFL matchup in Week 1:
In the game between New Orleans and Atlanta, the consensus lines are as follows:
Let’s get down to business:
272 * 250 * .0624 = $4243.20
Now, suppose both you and a friend are making offsetting bets on this game and New Orleans comes out on top:
Next, we need to analyze the implied probabilities of winning, which can be sourced from BoydsBets. We'll take the consensus spreads from VI and apply WoO to convert these into winning probabilities:
At this point, we have our potential financial outcomes alongside our winning probabilities, so let's see the results:
1.) -286 = $87.41
2.) -179 = $139.67
3.) -278 = $89.93
4.) -196 = $127.55
5.) -127 = $196.85
6.) -333 = $75.08
7.) -141 = $177.30
8.) -128 = $195.31
9.) -154 = $162.35
10.) -556 = $44.96
11.) -145 = $172.43
12.) -131 = $190.84
13.) -104 = $240.38
14.) -175 = $142.85
15.) -312 = $80.13
16.) -185 = $135.14
17.) -179 = $139.66
6.8 + 87.41 + 139.67 + 89.93 + 127.55 + 196.85 + 75.08 + 177.30 + 195.31 + 162.35 + 44.96 + 172.43 + 190.84 + 240.38 + 142.85 + 80.13 + 135.14 + 139.66 = $2,404.64 (Profit)
As illustrated, the overall expectation indicates a loss of $26.388, which makes sense given a total of $500 being wagered, translating to an anticipated loss rate of 5.2776% on the total amount betted.
1.) Slightly lower frequency.
2.) We made more bets, overall.
Now, if we slightly adjust our probabilities using figures from 2018, here's what we discover:
In effect, we're looking at an expected profit of around $54.77528125 through offsetting with this promotion, which translates to an anticipated gain percentage of approximately 10.955%. This amount comes up a little lower than our expected gain percentages from offsets in 2018, but this fluctuation is expected due to variations in individual game lines.
The equation above may need a bit of clarification, so let’s break it down step by step:
Set 1: This indicates the profit realized from offsetting if the Falcons win and New Orleans never manages to secure a lead of 10 points or more, based on the modified probabilities.
1.) 197 = $492.50
2.) 163 = $407.50
3.) 151 = $377.50
4.) 270 = $675.00
5.) 107 = $267.50
6.) 296 = $740.00
7.) 114 = $285.00
8.) 278 = $695.00
9.) 786 = $1,965.00
10.) 253 = $632.50
11.) 130 = $325.00
12.) 461 = $1,152.50
13.) 343 = $857.50
14.) 351 = $877.50
15.) 580 = $1,450.00
16.) 206 = $515.00
17.) 253 = $632.50
18.) 157 = $392.50
1841.2 + 492.5 + 407.5 + 377.5 + 675 + 267.5 + 740 + 285 + 695 + 1965 + 632.5 + 325 + 1152.5 + 857.5 + 877.5 + 1450 + 515 + 632.5 + 392.5 = $14,581.20
Set 2: This is indicative of the Falcons securing a victory while the Saints have held a lead of at least 10 at some point in the game. The $589.80 reflects the total profit amount, derived from $482.50 if the Falcons win, plus another $107.30 from a Saints win, as both bets result in profits.
***You might wonder, 'What about the $250 we no longer lose?' That amount is already accounted for in the profit calculation. There is a distinction between not losing $250 and actually gaining $250; hence, the profit of $107.30 for the New Orleans bet transforms what would have been a loss into a win.
| Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| Games | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 272 |
| Games Betting Favorites | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 272 |
| Games Betting Dogs | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 272 |
| Promotion Swing % Favorites | 3.13% | 4.30% | 5.08% | 6.64% | 6.25% |
| Promotion Swing % Dogs | 6.25% | 8.98% | 7.81% | 10.16% | 6.62% |
| Gain(Loss) Favorites | ($1,056.36) | $360.33 | $479.56 | $2,642.68 | $2,404.64 |
| Gain (Loss) % Favorites | -1.65% | 0.56% | 0.75% | 4.13% | 3.54% |
| Gain Dogs | $10,177.63 | $17,450.10 | $15,407.68 | $20,885.10 | $14,581.20 |
| Gain % Dogs | 15.90% | 27.27% | 24.08% | 32.63% | 21.44% |
| Gain Offsets | $9,121.27 | $17,810.43 | $15,887.24 | $23,527.78 | $16,985.84 |
| Gain % Offsets | 7.13% | 13.91% | 12.41% | 18.38% | 12.49% |
***Furthermore, you might question, 'Why do you include that $250 back in the primary example?' The explanation is that the $250, in effect, represents potential gains. When we discuss offsets, disregarding ties, one $250 will be lost or the other—this is the fundamental concept behind offsetting—one bet or the other will always lose while its opposing bet wins.
Set 3: This mirrors the previous scenario, but this time features New Orleans winning while the Falcons have managed a lead of 10 or more at any point in the match. Both bets win, leading to profits equivalent to those in Set 2.
Set 4: This reflects a scenario where New Orleans wins, and the Falcons do not manage to lead at all.
THE TIES
Offset Analysis—The breakdown shows we incur a loss of $142.70 roughly 60% of the time if New Orleans wins and Atlanta does not lead by 10 or more. We gain $232.50 when Atlanta wins without New Orleans ever establishing a lead of 10 points, which occurs 26.7% of the time; however, this would be a futile betting strategy in any other scenario. Approximately 13.28% of the time, while offsetting, one team prevails while the other had led by 10 points at some stage during the game, and here it matters little what either team accomplishes (with offsets) because both bets yield wins.
In summary, we'll evaluate what the data from the past three seasons reveals, but I typically advise against using offsets for this promotion for several reasons:
1.) My stance on offsets is that I only support them if there is a foolproof guarantee of profit or no risk of monetary loss. This promotion does not offer that assurance, as the two opposing bettors will likely lose money on most occasions depending on the betting lines.
2.) The underdogs offer significantly more value under this promotion than the favorites do. In fact, it seems the favorites may not even break even on average at this point. While they might yield a net positive in the future, potentially like in 2018, the value remains vastly better when both individuals simply bet on underdogs as opposed to offsetting their bets.
All things considered, it seems we have a solid understanding of where this is headed; let’s progress to the upcoming season.
The 2018 season proved to be substantially better for us compared to 2017. Underdogs shifted from being impressive under this promotion to being almost unbeatable. Even the favorites, which previously seemed unpromising according to 2017 results, became marginally profitable within this framework.
We conducted an exhaustive examination of offset betting; however, we will touch further on this topic in the concluding sections of this page. Generally, I only endorse offset betting when there is a 100% guaranteed likelihood of profitability regardless of outcomes, but that isn't likely the case here, which counters the very purpose of offset betting for me.
Additionally, the value of underdogs with this promotion is so extraordinarily pronounced that it becomes challenging to justify offsets, even in situations where there's a 100% profit expectation. Two individuals solely betting on underdogs is simply a far superior strategy in this context.
1.) Buffalo vs. New York Jets–In this matchup, the Jets ultimately fell short with a score of 17-16, despite holding a significant 16-0 lead during the third quarter.
Although the Jets were favored by 2.5 points to win, this would translate roughly to a Moneyline of around -142 if you considered a straight bet.
2.) Washington vs. Philadelphia—Washington actually led the game 10-0 after the first quarter but ultimately succumbed to the Eagles, losing 32-27. In fact, they held a strong 20-7 lead as both teams exited the field at halftime.
For this matchup, the Moneyline for Washington was +385, making it a potentially lucrative scenario if you'd leveraged this promotion!
3.) Houston vs. New Orleans–In the opening Monday night fixture of the season, the Texans established a 14-3 halftime advantage, but after various distractions, they faltered, leading to a final score of 30-28.
| Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Ties (ALL) | TOTALS |
| Games | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 272 | 1296 | 1296 |
| Games Betting Favorites | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 272 | 1296 | 1296 |
| Games Betting Dogs | 256 | 256 | 256 | 256 | 272 | 1296 | 1296 |
| Promotion Swing % Favorites | 3.13% | 4.30% | 5.08% | 6.64% | 6.25% | 0.00% | 5.32% |
| Promotion Swing % Dogs | 6.25% | 8.98% | 7.81% | 10.16% | 6.62% | 0% | 7.95% |
| Gain(Loss) Favorites | ($1,056.36) | $360.33 | $479.56 | $2,642.68 | $2,404.64 | $524.85 | $5,355.70 |
| Gain (Loss) % Favorites | -1.65% | 0.56% | 0.75% | 4.13% | 3.54% | X* | 1.65% |
| Gain Dogs | $10,177.63 | $17,450.10 | $15,407.68 | $20,885.10 | $14,581.20 | $0 | $78,501.71 |
| Gain % Dogs | 15.90% | 27.27% | 24.08% | 32.63% | 21.44% | X | 24.23% |
| Gain Offsets | $9,121.27 | $17,810.43 | $15,887.24 | $23,527.78 | $16,985.84 | X* | $83,857.41 |
| Gain % Offsets | 7.13% | 13.91% | 12.41% | 18.38% | 12.49% | X* | 12.94% |
As 6.5-point underdogs, the Texans covered the spread and would have had a Moneyline around +224.
FINAL BREAKDOWN
Favorites:
4.) Kansas City vs. Oakland–This game was marked by explosive scoring in the first half. Despite the Raiders jumping to a 10-0 lead initially, KC responded with 28 points in the second quarter, sealing their victory.
As seven-point underdogs in this game, the Moneyline for the Raiders would hover around +249.
***While Oakland may now be recognized as Las Vegas, the analysis presented continues to refer to them as Las Vegas regardless of the change, and this doesn’t alter any relevant outcomes here; they officially became Las Vegas starting in 2020.
1296 * 250 * .0624 = $20,217.60 (Loss)
5.) New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay–In the rare instance that the Giants do secure a victory, they appear to thrive under pressure. This time they entered halftime trailing 28-10 but rallied back on offense, restricting the Buccaneers to just a field goal and clinching the game with a final score of 32-31.
The Buccaneers, favored by five points in this matchup, would have a Moneyline around -234.
6.) Houston vs. Los Angeles Chargers–This scenario is straightforward; the Chargers led this contest 17-7 at halftime, but (alleged) distractions rejuvenated Watson, leading the Texans to a comeback victory at 27-20. This will mark the last time we reference Watson humor here, I assure you.
Underdogs:
In this instance, the Chargers were the favorites, giving 3.5 points, which correlates to an estimated Moneyline of -191, despite the approximation.
To put it differently, if the anticipated percentage loss for consistently wagering on every underdog under regular conditions remains consistent, this promotion could shift your outcome from a loss of $2,502.40 to a gain of $17,450.10.
Offsets:
We are placing the same total bet of $64,000 with the aim of receiving $81,450.10 back; now let’s calculate the profit margin:
Now, let's compile some current statistics:
You might be curious about the terms 'Gain Offsets' and 'Gain Percentage Offsets.' Let me clarify what they mean:
When I mention 'Offsets,' I’m discussing scenarios where two or more participants engage in the same promotion but select opposing teams on the Moneyline. Typically, in a scenario such as a 'Risk-Free' wager or cashback offer, either one player wins while the other loses. However, it's worth noting that betting solely on underdogs generally provides significantly better expected value.
Additionally, when considering offsets, my goal is usually to ensure a guaranteed profit, which is certainly not what you get by utilizing these offsets. In fact, you’ll incur losses on every game where a team does not have a lead of at least 10 points, and profits will only occur when this condition is met.
QUESTIONS THAT COULD BE ASKED
With that said, I only view offsets favorably when we see that both sides, the favorite and the underdog, are likely to yield positive outcomes overall. If that scenario doesn't play out—as it did in 2018, but not in 2017—then using offsets would negatively affect your total earnings since you're increasing your bets and diminishing overall value.
It's true that offsets in 2018 may have outwardly reduced your percentage return, but given that both teams would have yielded a profit if you could have placed bets on this promotion at any point, the offsets would actually have proven to be more lucrative.
Naturally, if two individuals were to consistently bet on underdogs instead of one person betting on favorites while the other offsets, they would have significantly better outcomes.
To summarize, I explore offsets mainly out of academic interest, yet my core guidance is to never engage in offsetting this promotion unless you can fully commit to it for an entire season; and even then, it’s much better for both players to simply back underdogs.
Moreover, you should particularly avoid offsetting this promotion by going against someone else for just one game. There’s an overwhelming probability—over 85%—that the team that ultimately loses will never have been ahead by 10 points, which means you could end up losing your bet.
Denver -278 Seattle +225
Let’s take a look at the Moneylines for an NFL game in Week 1:
The consensus lines for the match between New Orleans and Atlanta are as follows:
If Denver wins: $150 - $100 = $50
If Seattle wins: $337.50 - 278 = $59.50
Now imagine you and a friend decide to make opposing bets on this game, and New Orleans comes out on top:
Next, we need to determine the implied winning probabilities, which can be sourced from BoydsBets. We will assess the consensus spreads on VI and use WoO to convert them into winning probabilities:
Now that we have estimated both potential financial outcomes and win percentages, let’s delve into the results:
1.) Underdogs are just way too good.
From this data, we can forecast a net expected loss of $26.388, which aligns with the understanding that we are betting a total of $500, amounting to an expected loss of 5.2776% across all bets placed.
If we tweak our probabilities slightly to reflect figures from 2018, here’s what the outcome becomes:
In simpler terms, if we can leverage the offsets associated with this promotion, we anticipate a profit of approximately $54.77528125, translating to an expected gain percentage of around 10.955%. This falls slightly short of the expected gain percentage from 2018, but that variability can be attributed to the fluctuating lines in individual matchups.
The previous equation may need some elaboration, so let's break it down stepwise:
Set 1: This signifies the profit involved with offsets if the Falcons triumph while New Orleans never achieves a 10-point lead, based on the adjusted probability.
Set 2: This denotes the scenario of the Falcons winning with the Saints having a lead of 10 points or more at some point. The total profit of $589.80 is derived from $482.50 gained when the Falcons win plus $107.30 from the Saints' victory, since both bets win.
You may be asking, 'What happens to that $250 we avoided losing?' That amount has already been taken into account within the overall profit figure. The distinction lies in that avoiding a loss of $250 does not equate to gaining that amount; thus, $107.30 represents the true profit from the New Orleans wager, which would have been a loss otherwise.
You might question, 'Why do you reinstate the $250 that isn’t lost in the primary scenario?' The reasoning is that this $250 represents gains. In the context of offsets, without considering ties, you will lose either this $250 or the other—it’s the essence of offset betting. Essentially, one bet will lose while its counterpart will win, which is the fundamental concept of offsetting.
Set 3: Identical to the previous sets, except this one is about New Orleans winning while the Falcons maintain a lead of ten points or more at some stage. Both bets yield profits, reflecting the same outcome as Set 2.
Set 4: Here, New Orleans wins, and the Falcons never have the lead.
5.) Was this difficult to do?
Breakdown of Offsets–We effectively experience a loss of $142.70 around 60% of the time because New Orleans wins and Atlanta never holds a 10-point advantage. Conversely, we gain $232.50 if Atlanta wins without New Orleans leading at any point, which occurs 26.7% of the time, but would prove entirely ineffective in a different betting situation. Roughly 13.28% of the time, if both teams score at least once and the losing side had a lead of 10+, it doesn’t matter which team prevailed since both bets simply win.
6.) What is your favorite color?
-Orange.
Overall, we’ll assess the insights gathered over the last three seasons, but I generally advise against using offsets for this promotion for several reasons:
1.) I usually only endorse offsets if they guarantee a profit or ensure there’s no potential for a financial loss. Offsetting in this instance does not provide that assurance; depending on the betting lines, both offsetters are likely to incur losses in most matches.
2.) The value associated with betting on underdogs in this promotion is markedly superior compared to backing the favorites. In fact, averages indicate that the favorites may not presently yield positive results. It’s conceivable things could shift to become net positive as they did in 2018, but the value of two individuals betting solely on underdogs vastly outweighs that of two people engaging in offsets.
Alright, it appears we have a solid grasp of the direction we’re headed; let's proceed to the next season.
3.) According to Sports Illustrated The 2018 season proved to be significantly more favorable for us compared to 2017. Underdogs transitioned from being exceptionally beneficial under this promotion to nearly unbelievable. Even favorites, which were not seen as promising from 2017’s results, became marginally profitable through this promotion.
We conducted what was likely the most in-depth analysis of offset betting, although we will touch on that topic further along on this page. In general, I only support the use of offsets when the probability of making a profit is exactly 100%, regardless of the outcome. Unfortunately, this situation rarely applies here, which negates the primary advantage of offset betting for me.
Moreover, the value of underdogs in this promotion is so extraordinarily high that it would be difficult to justify employing offsets even if there was a 100% certainty of making a profit. Two separate individuals just backing underdogs is definitively far stronger in this scenario.
1.) Buffalo against the New York Jets–The Jets lost this contest with a final score of 17-16, despite holding an impressive lead of 16-0 at one point in the third quarter.
In fact, the Jets were favored by 2.5 points to win, which translates to a Moneyline of roughly -142 if you were betting straight up.
2.) Washington versus Philadelphia—Washington took an early lead of 10-0 in the first quarter, but ultimately succumbed to the Eagles with a final score of 32-27. Washington even led with a convincing 20-7 score as the teams headed into halftime.
For this game, we have an actual Moneyline showing Washington at +385, making it quite appealing if you were part of this promotion!
3.) Houston and New Orleans–In the inaugural Monday night game of the season, the Texans entered halftime leading 14-3, but surrendered the advantage in a nail-biting finish, ending at 30-28.
As 6.5 point underdogs, the Texans covered the spread and would have had a Moneyline of approximately +224.
4.) Kansas City versus Oakland–This match was notable for all the scoring occurring in the first half. Oakland surged to a 10-0 lead early on, but Kansas City responded by scoring 28 points in the second quarter, sealing the victory.
As seven point underdogs entering the game, the Moneyline for the Raiders would have been about +249.
While Oakland may now be Las Vegas, the site I am using lists them as Las Vegas regardless of the change, and it won’t materially affect anything for our purposes. I acknowledge their current affiliation starting in 2020.
5.) New York Giants against Tampa Bay–In a rare instance when the Giants pull off a win, it seems they prefer coming from behind. Here, Tampa Bay held a 28-10 lead at halftime, but New York made a comeback, limiting the Buccaneers to a single field goal on defense and winning 32-31.
Laying down five points as the favorites, the Moneyline for Tampa Bay likely appeared around -234.
6.) Houston versus Los Angeles Chargers–This situation is straightforward; the Chargers were ahead 17-7 as they reached halftime, but some alleged off-field distractions helped Watson lead the Texans to a comeback victory at 27-20. I assure you this will be the last lighthearted remark about Watson on this page.
As with previous instances, the Chargers were giving 3.5 points, translating to an estimated Moneyline of around -191.
7.) Philadelphia @ Green Bay – The Packers held a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter, but the Eagles took control subsequently, ultimately securing a victory with a score of 34-27.
As underdogs by 3.5 points, the Eagles would have had odds around +156 for a straight bet.
12.) Why are underdogs so strong?
8.) Kansas City @ Detroit – No need for a scoring recap here! The Lions started strong with a 10-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, but ultimately succumbed to the stronger Chiefs, ending the game at 34-30. Still, Detroit displayed commendable performance in this match.
Detroit managed to surpass the 7.5 point spread they were given and would have won if using the money line, which would be approximately +268.
9.) Jacksonville @ Denver – Another game that doesn’t require a full scoring breakdown; the Broncos entered halftime with a 17-6 advantage but ended up losing 26-24. Jacksonville only outperformed in the third quarter, winning it 14-0, which was sufficient.
In this matchup, Denver actually had a Moneyline of -139, so we’ll refer to that.
10.) Seattle @ Cleveland – Although the Browns missed a PAT, they must have felt optimistic with a 20-6 early lead in the second quarter. However, the Seahawks overcame them, finishing at 32-28.
+100 to +200
+201 to +300
+301 to +400
+401 to +500
+501 or more
Cleveland was slightly favored on the Moneyline at an actual value of -108, so that’s what we’ll note.
11.) Houston @ Kansas City – The Chiefs started strong with a 17-3 lead going into the second quarter, but the Texans took charge, scoring 20 unanswered points for the remainder of the period, ultimately winning 31-24.
-Betting on the underdog instead.
The Chiefs were favored by 3.5 points coming into this game, which would indicate a Moneyline of about -191. Meanwhile, the Texans managed to cover the spread, which was likely upsetting for Kansas City straight bettors unless they capitalized on this promotion.
12.) Detroit @ Green Bay – In the Monday Night match, the Lions shocked fans by taking a 10-0 lead in the first quarter. Despite this, Green Bay squeezed out a narrow 23-22 victory in a tense game.
-101 to -200
-201 to -300
-301 to -400
-401 to -500
-501 or more
Detroit covered the 3.5 point spread in this game, but straight bettors would have faced a rough night with the estimated +156 line without the benefit of this promotion.
13.) Denver @ Indianapolis – You might not anticipate seeing a game end with a score of 15-13, much less one like this, but Denver was ahead 13-3 at one point in the third quarter before ultimately losing to the Colts.
Being six-point underdogs, Denver comfortably covered the spread, and we noted an actual Moneyline of +218 for this contest. It appeared to be a solid value bet, but with this promotion, it could have been an outstanding value—and a winning bet.
16.) How long did this take?
-Long enough.
17.) Why $250 bets?
14.) Miami @ Pittsburgh – Another instance of a team only performing well in one quarter. The Dolphins took an early 14-0 advantage before the Steelers scored 27 unanswered points to take control of the game.
CONCLUSION
The Dolphins, as 14-point underdogs, had an actual Moneyline of +562, which would have excited spread bettors, but I imagine they were quite anxious after feeling that their initial success guaranteed a win; fortunately, this promotion might have offered them some relief if that first quarter had them hopeful.
15.) Tampa Bay @ Seattle – In a high-scoring affair, the Buccaneers actually led 21-7 midway through the second quarter, but the Seahawks turned the game around to tie at 21 and then dictated the match, finishing with a 40-34 win.
The favorite secured the win and managed to cover the four-point spread given to Tampa Bay, making the Moneyline for those betting on the Buccaneers approximately +171.
16.) Kansas City @ Tennessee – This straightforward game saw the Chiefs take a 10-0 lead after the first quarter, but it was the Titans who emerged victorious with a final score of 35-32.