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Video Poker Jackpot that Can’t Be Hit

On February 16, 2024, a user named Luckylucyano created a post on the forum discussing a video poker game that seemed to offer a surprising expected return of 134%. The title of the post is Video Poker Jackpot that Can’t Be Hit. This particular game was a $0.25 progressive Triple Triple Bonus machine located at the newly opened Durango casino in Las Vegas. Notably, two jackpots were interconnected among six machines within a cluster of eight.

Video poker progressive games that seem impossible to win

The table below contains the payout structure at the moment of the post. Notably, the third and fourth wins from the top line featured progressive jackpots amounting to $1,234.45 and $5,953.01, which I multiplied by 4 in my calculations to reflect the number of quarters disbursed by the jackpot. The bottom right cell indicates an anticipated return of 134.2751%, translating to a player edge of 34%! It's important to highlight that out of this 134% return, a striking 49% is derived from the jackpot for achieving four of a kind with 2’s to 4’s and an ace kicker.

Event Win Three of a Kind Probability Return
Royal Flush 4,000 38,662,511 0.000023 0.018620
Straight Flush 250 172,495,096 0.000104 0.005192
Four Aces with any 2,3,4 4,937 123,732,227 0.000074 0.073549
Four 2s, 3s, 4s with an Ace 23,812 169,520,132 0.000102 0.486016
Four 2s, 3s, 4s with any 2,3,4 2,000 136,759,406 0.000082 0.032932
Four Aces 800 212,687,389 0.000128 0.020486
Four 2s, 3s, 4s 400 613,934,824 0.000370 0.029568
Four 5s thru Ks 250 2,585,702,832 0.001557 0.077831
Full House 30 14,878,770,786 0.008957 0.053743
Flush 25 16,832,203,833 0.010133 0.050666
Straight 15 17,053,680,141 0.010266 0.030799
Three of a Kind 10 124,556,436,362 0.074984 0.149968
Two Pair 5 180,096,974,658 0.108420 0.108420
Jacks or Better 5 340,458,026,808 0.204959 0.204959
All Other 0 963,172,956,095 0.579840 0.000000
Totals   1,661,102,543,100 1.000000 1.342751

Nevertheless, the same forum member revealed that he and several proficient video poker enthusiasts had already tried to capitalize on this seemingly lucrative opportunity, but with unsettling results. The progressive for hitting four aces with a 2-4 kicker did trigger and reset as intended, yet there were no winners for four of a kind in 2’s to 4’s with an ace kicker. Numerous players reported strange glitches when dealt hands just one card shy of the significant jackpot. After a reset, the game displayed a losing hand.

Let’s delve into the math regarding the likelihood of the jackpot escalating to this amount based on the jackpot figures mentioned in the original post. Excluding the progressive aspect, this game awards 4,000 coins for achieving four 2’s-4’s with an ace kicker on a five-coin wager. I will assume the progressive began at this rate. The incremental growth was 19,812 quarters, equating to $4,953. The progressive meter increases by 0.75% relative to total wagers. Therefore, it can be inferred that $660,400 has been bet since the progressive feature was activated. It's worth noting that Durango is a new establishment, and it appears this particular machine was also newly installed, suggesting this jackpot likely had never been won previously.

When playing at a cost of $1.25 per five-coin bet necessary to unlock the jackpot, this totals to 528,320 bets placed. If we conservatively presume players are applying standard strategy for a non-progressive Triple Triple Bonus with a 6-5 payout, the odds of landing four 2’s to 4’s alongside an ace kicker are approximately 1 in 12,773. By dividing the total bets of 528,320 by the cycle of 12,773 for a potential jackpot, it indicates that the jackpot should have been successfully struck around 41.36 times. If players aggressively pursued the jackpot, this number would increase, but we will maintain the conservative assumption. The likelihood of going through 41.36 cycles without a win reaches 8.75 standard deviations below what is expected. The odds of encountering such a scenario are an astounding 1 in 920,655,462,590,263,000. To give some perspective, purchasing one Powerball ticket alongside one Mega Millions ticket would yield a 10.4 times greater chance of winning both compared to the improbability of the jackpot climbing to such heights without being hit.

I became aware of this situation on February 19, just three days after the original forum post. Unfortunately, I was a bit late to join the conversation as I had been on a three-day kayaking expedition down the Colorado River. Within hours of returning, I headed over to Durango for a firsthand investigation. My time there amounted to nearly four hours where I wagered $2,610 and lost $600 in the process. Despite employing a high-risk strategy aimed at winning the jackpot, I was unable to secure it. Each time I found myself merely two cards away from the big win, I recorded a video of the draw in hopes of capturing any malfunctions while they occurred. Even with my aggressive play style, the odds of hitting the jackpot remained around 1 in 9,800 per attempt. Given the amount of my gameplay, my chances still stood at merely 5%.

While I was playing, a friend of the forum user Luckylucyano recognized me. We engaged in an enjoyable discussion regarding the game. He reached out to Luckylucyano via phone, who kindly addressed my queries. It was great to have a fellow enthusiast playing alongside me for the last hour, but my frustration with continually losing funds led me to decide to walk away. I can at least confirm that the meter is indeed rising at a rate of 0.75%, based on the logs I kept while being the sole player at the six machines linked to the progressive feature. The accompanying image showcases the machines at the point of my departure, with the major jackpot climbing to $6,324.97.

Gaming Control Board

That evening, I shared my experiences on the forum. The following day, I sent off a complaint email regarding the game to the Nevada Gaming Control Board. I also expressed my concerns to the senior product manager responsible for video poker and keno content at IGT, the manufacturer of the machine, whose contact card I’ve kept with me for many years.

I was pleasantly surprised to receive a response from the Gaming Control Board about three hours later. The message read as follows:

"We have received your complaint regarding the Nevada Gaming Control Board. An agent will be assigned to inspect the relevant machines to ensure compliance with payout regulations. According to Regulation 14.040, machines must return at least 75% of funds wagered. Please note that, as per NRS 463.120, we are unable to disclose the results of our investigation to the public. Should you have any further inquiries, do not hesitate to get in touch with us.\"

While I appreciated the swift response and their seriousness in addressing the issue, I was worried they may have misunderstood the essence of my complaint. I am not asserting that the game violates Regulation 14.040. Even if the sizeable jackpot appears unachievable, the game would still provide a return of about 87%, contingent on the playing strategy used.

Later that evening, I felt a sense of relief when it was reported on my forum that the bank of eight machines, including two that didn’t offer the game in question, were taken out of service! The next image illustrates them displaying the \"out of service\" notice.

Out of service

I hope the shutdown was authorized by a gaming investigator, allowing a thorough examination to uncover the underlying issues. This process may involve sifting through extensive code and conducting numerous tests, so requesting a complete and proper investigation is quite ambitious. I would like to believe that IGT is equally concerned about this matter, but I have yet to receive a reply to my email or voicemail.

I want to clarify that I am not accusing anyone of wrongdoing. I have great respect for IGT and trust in their dedication to fair play within the gaming industry. What I suspect is happening may involve an unintended technical glitch.

I created a YouTube video detailing my findings from the investigation, including 56 instances where I was just two cards away after the deal.

I would like to extend my gratitude to Luckylucyano for initially bringing this issue to light and for his assistance with my investigation.

As I near the deadline for my newsletter, this is all the information I have available to share. I will follow up with any new developments in my newsletter next week.