Super Bowl Experiment

Before diving into the details, I want to remind you of a previous point I made. Feb. 1 newsletter .

"The over/under line is set at 47.5, which I find appealing. My personal assessment shows a difference of 4.7 points compared to the line, which is substantial enough for me to confidently place a wager on the under. Thus, this qualifies as an official recommendation from the Wizard – I’m backing the under at 47.5 points.\"

You’re welcome!

In the past, I dedicated a significant amount of time and financial resources to proposition bets during the Super Bowl. However, I discovered that, upon analyzing over 100 popular proposition bets each year, the overwhelming majority related to events that were unlikely to occur. I formulated a theory suggesting that consistently betting on outcomes featuring 'no' or 'under' would nearly break even, and with some research, a profit might be plausible.

I decided to put my theory into practice for this year’s Super Bowl. Visiting the Rampart casino, which adheres to South Point lines, I placed bets exclusively on wagers containing the terms 'no' or 'under.' Each bet was $20, leading to a total of 175 wagers, amounting to $3,500 invested in this experiment.

As I observed the tense matchup unfold, I grew increasingly anxious about the possibility of the game going into overtime following a touchdown by Kansas City in the third quarter, making the score SF 10, KC 13. My worries eased somewhat when San Francisco managed to score a touchdown in the fourth quarter. If they successfully converted the extra point, the score would have stood at SF 17, KC 13, making overtime unlikely due to the four-point lead. Unfortunately, disaster struck when the extra point was missed, restoring the score to a narrow 3-point difference: SF 16, KC 13. Had San Francisco made the extra point, I believe they would have seized victory and my bets would have performed well. Following that failed attempt, Kansas City managed to score two field goals while San Francisco only added one, leading the game into the dreaded overtime.

Why is all this significant? Importantly, every single one of my bets revolved around occurrences that I didn't think would happen. Many were tied to total rushing or passing yards, and given that more plays generally result in higher totals, that was not beneficial for my bets. Furthermore, several were based on counts of specific events like field goals, interceptions, sacks, fumbles, or individual players scoring touchdowns. Counting accurately, I noted that there were 132 plays within the first four quarters, with an additional 26 during overtime, yielding a 20% increase in plays.

Now, enough with the justifications. Below, you will find a complete list of all 175 bets I made along with their outcomes. I regret any errors or shorthand included.

Number	Description	Odds	W/L	Win ($)
3030	Total points under 35.5	475	L	-20.00
3032	Total points under 40.5	240	L	-20.00
3034	Total points under 56.5	-320	W	6.25
3036	Total points under 63.5	-550	W	3.65
3038	Total points by 49\"ers in game un 24.5	-120	W	16.65
3040	Total points by Chiefs un 24	-120	L	-20.00
3042	Total points in first half by 49\"ers un 11.5	105	W	21.00
3044	Under 10.5 total points by the Chiefs in the first half	-105	W	19.05
3048	Safety -- NO	-1200	W	1.65
3050	Overtime -- No	-1200	L	-20.00
3052	Successful two point conversion -- NO	-320	W	6.25
3066	Three unanswered scores -- NO	145	L	-20.00
3068	No points scored in the last two minutes of the first half – NO	280	L	-20.00
3072	Shortest TD of game under 1.5	-145	L	-20.00
3074	Longest TD of game under 39.5	-110	W	18.20
3084	Game decided by 3 points? -- NO	-475	L	-20.00
3086	Will team to score first win -- NO	150	W	30.00
3090	Was roughing the passer called during the game? – NO	-240	W	8.35
3092	Defensive of special teams TD -- NO	-300	W	6.65
3100	Will last play of game be QB rush? -- NO	155	W	31.00
3102	Did both teams hold the lead at any point in the first half? – NO	-155	W	12.90
3106	Team to score last wins -- NO	200	L	-20.00
3112	Total interceptions under 1.5	-125	W	16.00
3114	Total fumbles lost in game under 1.5	-240	L	-20.00
3116	Scoreless quarter -- No	-360	L	-20.00
3124	Missed extra point in game -- NO	-400	L	-20.00
3128	Under 2.5 players will complete a pass	-270	L	-20.00
3130	Total punts under 7.5	-155	L	-20.00
3132	Largest lead under 14.5 points	-150	W	13.35
3134	Total net yards by both teams under 715.5	-110	L	-20.00
3136	Total combined TD's in game under 5.5	-110	W	18.20
3138	Distance of first TD scored under 7.5	-110	L	-20.00
3140	Distance of last TD scored under 7.5	-110	W	18.20
3144	Score in first 5:30 of game -- No	-140	W	14.30
3146	Game tied after 0-0 -- NO	-105	L	-20.00
3148	Longest FG under 47.5	-105	L	-20.00
3150	Shortest FG under 27.5 yards	-110	W	18.20
3152	Both teams make 33+ yard FG -- NO	120	L	-20.00
3154	Under 3.5 field goals	-140	L	-20.00
3158	Distance of first FG made under 36.5	100	L	-20.00
3160	Under 118.5 total FG yards	-110	L	-20.00
3162	Distance of last FG made under 37.5	-110	W	18.20
3164	FG is first quarter -- No	100	W	20.00
3166	Any team scoring a field goal in the second quarter? – NO	240	L	-20.00
3168	Any team scoring a field goal in the third quarter? – NO	-110	L	-20.00
3170	Any team scoring a field goal in the fourth quarter? – NO	140	L	-20.00
3198	SF TD in first quarter -- NO	-120	W	16.65
3200	SF TD in second quarter -- NO	145	L	-20.00
3202	SF TD in third quarter -- NO	-120	W	16.65
3204	SF TD in fourth quarter -- NO	145	L	-20.00
3206	KC TD in first quarter -- NO	-140	W	14.30
3208	KC TD in second quarter -- NO	130	W	26.00
3210	KC TD in third quarter -- NO	-120	L	-20.00
3212	KC TD in fourth quarter -- NO	130	W	26.00
3214	SF scores in every quarter -- NO	-230	W	8.70
3216	KC scores in every quarter -- NO	-280	W	7.15
3218	SF score a rushing TD -- NO	245	W	49.00
3220	Will the Chiefs score a rushing touchdown during the game? – NO	110	W	22.00
3222	Will the 49ers score a rushing touchdown in the first half? – NO	115	W	23.00
3224	Did the Chiefs score a rushing touchdown in the first half? – NO	-220	W	9.10
3226	Total first downs by SF un 21.5	-115	L	-20.00
3228	Total first downs by KC un 21	-120	L	-20.00
3230	Total TD's by SF un 2.5	120	W	24.00
3232	Total TD's by KC un 2.5	100	W	20.00
3234	Net yards in game by SF un 366.5	-110	L	-20.00
3236	Net yards in game by KC under 361.5	-110	L	-20.00
3238	Rushing yards by SF under 129.5	-110	W	18.20
3240	Rushing yards by KC under 106.5	-110	L	-20.00
3242	Total sacks by SF defense under 2.5	-220	L	-20.00
3244	Total sacks by KC defense under 2.5	-130	W	15.40
3246	Under 4 players from the 49ers will have a rushing attempt	110	L	-20.00
3248	Under 4 different players from the Chiefs will get a rushing attempt	-115	P	0.00
3250	Will the 49ers convert a fourth down (excluding penalties)? – NO	-105	L	-20.00
3252	Will the Chiefs convert a fourth down (excluding penalties)? – NO	125	L	-20.00
3254	Total 49ers to have a reception under 6	100	L	-20.00
3256	Total 49ers to have a reception under 7.5	100	L	-20.00
3262	Will Purdy throw an interception? – NO	120	W	24.00
3264	Will Mahomes throw an interception? – NO	-115	L	-20.00
3266	Total completions by Purdy under 20.5	100	L	-20.00
3268	Total completions by Mahomes under 25.5	-110	L	-20.00
3270	Total passing yards by Purdy under 244.5	-110	L	-20.00
3272	Gross passing yards by Mahomes under 263.5	-110	L	-20.00
3274	Total pass attempts by Purdy under 29.5	-105	L	-20.00
3276	Total pass attempts by Mahomes under 36.5	100	L	-20.00
3278	Longest completion by Purdy under 36.5	-110	W	18.20
3280	Longest completion by Mahomes under 36.5	-105	L	-20.00
3282	Total TD passes by Purdy under 1.5	100	W	20.00
3284	Total TD passes by Mahomes under 1.5	130	L	-20.00
3290	Will Purdy (SF) throw a touchdown pass in the first quarter? – NO	-270	W	7.40
3292	Will Purdy (SF) throw a touchdown pass in the second quarter? – NO	-150	W	13.35
3294	Will Purdy (SF) throw a touchdown pass in the third quarter? – NO	-240	W	8.35
3296	Will Purdy (SF) throw a touchdown pass in the third quarter? – NO	-165	L	-20.00
3298	Will Mahomes (KC) throw a touchdown pass in the first quarter? – NO	-240	W	8.35
3300	Will Mahomes (KC) throw a touchdown pass in the second quarter? – NO	-130	W	15.40
3302	Will Mahomes (KC) throw a touchdown pass in the third quarter? – NO	-190	L	-20.00
3304	Will Mahomes (KC) throw a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter? – NO	-135	W	14.80
3306	Distance of first TD pass by Purdy under 9.5	130	L	-20.00
3308	Under 9.5 yards for the distance of the first touchdown pass by P. Mahomes	-125	L	-20.00
3310	Total rushing yards by B. Purdy (SF) under 11.5	-110	L	-20.00
3312	Under 25.5 rushing yards for P. Mahomes (KC)	-110	L	-20.00
3314	Under 3.5 for C. McCaffrey's first rushing attempt (SF)	110	L	-20.00
3316	Longest rush by C. McCaffrey (SF) un 18.5	-110	W	18.20
3318	Under 19.5 for total rushing attempts by C. McCaffrey (SF)	-115	L	-20.00
3320	Under 94.5 for total rushing yards by C. McCaffrey (SF)	-110	W	18.20
3322	Under 35.5 for total receiving yards by C. McCaffrey (SF)	-110	L	-20.00
3324	Total receptions by C McCaffrey (SF) un 4.5	110	L	-20.00
3326	Will C. McCaffrey (SF) score a touchdown in the game? – NO	200	L	-20.00
3328	Under 2.5 for E. Mitchell's first rushing attempt (SF)	-105	L	-20.00
3330	Longest rush by E. Mitchell (SF) un 3.5	-110	L	-20.00
3332	Under 1.5 for total rushing attempts by E. Mitchell (SF)	-115	L	-20.00
3334	Under 4.5 for total rushing yards by E. Mitchell (SF)	-120	L	-20.00
3338	Will E. Mitchell (SF) score a touchdown in the game? – NO	-900	W	2.20
3340	Under 3.5 for I. Pacheco's first rushing attempt (KC)	-110	W	18.20
3342	Longest rush by I. Pacheco (KC) un 15.5	-110	W	18.20
3344	Under 15.5 for total rushing attempts by I. Pacheco (KC)	-110	L	-20.00
3346	Under 69.5 for total rushing yards by I. Pacheco (KC)	-110	W	18.20
3348	Total receptions by I Pacheco (KC) un 2.5	120	L	-20.00
3350	Under 16.5 for total receiving yards by I. Pacheco (KC)	-110	L	-20.00
3352	Will I. Pacheco (KC) score a touchdown in the game? – NO	-105	W	19.05
3354	Under 13.5 for C. Edwards-Helaire's first rushing attempt	-135	W	14.80
3356	Under 1.5 for total receptions by C. Edwards-Helaire (KC)	-240	W	8.35
3358	Under 4.5 for total receiving yards by C. Edwards-Helaire	-110	W	18.20
3360	Under 5.5 for total rushing yards by C. Edwards-Helaire (KC)	-110	W	18.20
3362	Will C. Edwards-Helaire (KC) score a touchdown in the game? – NO	-800	W	2.50
3402	First reception by G. Kittle (SF) un 10.5	-120	W	16.65
3404	Total receptions by G. Kittle (SF) un 3.5	135	W	27.00
3406	Under 51.5 for total receiving yards by G. Kittle (SF)	-110	W	18.20
3408	Longest reception by G. Kittle (SF) un 21.5	-110	W	18.20
3410	Will G. Kittle (SF) score a touchdown in the game? – NO	-190	W	10.55
3412	First reception by D. Samuel (SF) un 9.5	-110	L	-20.00
3414	Total receptions by D. Samuel (SF) un 4.5	125	W	25.00
3416	Under 61.5 for total receiving yards by D. Samuel (SF)	-110	W	18.20
3418	Longest reception by D. Samuel (SF) un 21.5	-110	W	18.20
3420	Will D. Samuel (SF) score a touchdown in the game? – NO	-150	W	13.35
3422	First reception by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 12.5	-105	L	-20.00
3424	Total receptions by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 4.5	-150	W	13.35
3426	Under 61.5 for total receiving yards by B. Aiyuk (SF)	-110	W	18.20
3428	Longest reception by B. Aiyuk (SF) un 23.5	-110	W	18.20
3430	Will B. Aiyuk (SF) score a TD in game -- NO	-185	W	10.80
3444	Total receptions by J. Jennings (SF) un 1.5	-145	L	-20.00
3446	Under 14.5 for total receiving yards by J. Jennings (SF)	-110	L	-20.00
3448	Longest reception by J. Jennings (SF) un 12.5	-110	L	-20.00
3450	Will J. Jennings (SF) score a touchdown in the game? – NO	-750	L	-20.00
3452	First reception by T. Kelce (KC) un 8.5	-110	W	18.20
3454	Total receptions by T. Kelce (KC) un 7.5	-160	L	-20.00
3456	Under 71.5 for total receiving yards by T. Kelce (KC)	-110	L	-20.00
3458	Longest reception by T. Kelce (KC) un 21.5	-110	L	-20.00
3460	Will T. Kelce score a TD in game -- NO	105	W	21.00
3462	First reception by R. Rice (KC) un 8.5	-110	W	18.20
3464	Total receptions by R. Rice (KC) un 6.5	-115	W	17.40
3466	Total receiving yards by R. Rice (KC) un 68.5	-110	W	18.20
3468	Longest reception by R. Rice (KC) un 20.5	-110	W	18.20
3470	Will R. Rice (KC) score a TD -- NO	-165	W	12.10
3472	Under 16.5 for total receiving yards by J. Watson (KC)	-110	L	-20.00
3474	Will J. Watson (KC) score a TD -- NO	-700	W	2.85
3476	Total receiving yards by N. Gray (KC) under 13.5	-110	L	-20.00
3478	Will N. Gray (KC) score a TD -- NO	-1000	W	2.00
3502	Field Goals by J. Moody (SF) under 1.5	-110	L	-20.00
3504	Total kicking points by J. Moody (SF) under 7.5	-135	L	-20.00
3506	Total Field Goals by Butker (KC) under 1.5	105	L	-20.00
3508	Total kicking points by H Butker (KC) under 7.5	-120	L	-20.00
3510	Total punts by M. Wishnowsky (SF) under 3.5	-120	L	-20.00
3512	Total punts by T. Townsend (KC) under 3.5	100	L	-20.00
3514	Longest punt by Wishnowsky (SF) under 57.5	-115	W	17.40
3516	Longest punt by T. Townsend (KC) under 56.5	100	L	-20.00
3522	Under 7.5 for total solo and assisted tackles by D. Greenlaw (SF)	100	W	20.00
3522	Under 7.5 for total solo and assisted tackles by D. Greenlaw (SF)	100	W	20.00
3524	Under 8.5 for total solo and assisted tackles by N. Bolton (KC)	105	L	-20.00
3528	Under 8.5 for total solo and assisted tackles by F. Warner (SF)	-140	L	-20.00
3530	Under 5.5 for total tackles (solo + assisted) by J. Reid (KC)	125	L	-20.00
3532	Under 5.5 for total tackles (solo + assisted) by J. Brown (SF)	115	L	-20.00
3534	The total number of tackles, both solo and assisted, made by T. McDuffie from Kansas City is recorded at 4.5.	-115	W	17.40
3536	The prediction is that T. McDuffie (KC) will not achieve an interception during the game.	-1000	W	2.00
3538	There is an expectation that C. Ward (SF) will also not secure an interception in this match.	-800	W	2.50
3540	M. Edwards is anticipated to finish the game without an interception as well.	-800	W	2.50
3542	It is unlikely that L. Sneed will make an interception during the game.	-750	W	2.65
Total				-423.15

In the bottom right corner, it indicates a financial loss of $423.15, which represents approximately 12.1% of the total amount wagered. Honestly, this outcome wasn't as severe as I had feared. I intend to replicate this experiment next year.

You can find all the evaluated bets from South Point/Rampart compiled at this location. Wizard of Odds

I am planning to release the second part of the highly discussed poker argument involving Garrett Adelstein and Robbi Jade Lew next week.