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Modifications to the Mega Millions Lottery Rules

Logic Puzzle

Before diving into our discussion about this week’s updates on the Mega Millions lottery, let's solve a quick logic challenge. Imagine you have ten coins arranged in groups of 1, 2, 3, and 4 from left to right, with their colors being irrelevant. Can you flip the arrangement so it goes from 4 to 1 by moving just one single coin? The solution will be revealed at the end of this newsletter.

Mega Millions Rule Changes

Starting from April 5, 2025, the Mega Millions lottery implements several key revisions.

  1. Cost of a ticket increased from $2 to $5.
  2. The Megaplier feature is now included automatically instead of being an optional add-on that players had to pay an additional dollar for.
  3. The Megaplier can now reach up to 10 times the original winnings, with a typical value around 3 times.
  4. The pool of gold (Mega) balls has been decreased from 25 to 24.
  5. The winnings for matching one white ball along with the Mega ball has increased from $4 to $7.
  6. For players who match no white balls but do match the Mega ball, the payout has risen from $2 to $5.
  7. Reseed jackpot increased to $50 million.

The table below outlines the probability and distribution of each Megaplier. Remember, the Megaplier is a multiplier that enhances all winnings excluding the jackpot. In the bottom right cell, the average Megaplier is recorded as 3 times.

MEGAPLIER WEIGHT PROBABILITY RETURN
10 1 0.031250 0.312500
5 2 0.062500 0.312500
4 4 0.125000 0.500000
3 10 0.312500 0.937500
2 15 0.468750 0.937500
TOTAL 32 1.000000 3.000000

The subsequent table delineates the probability and contribution to the overall return for all fixed prizes. This return represents the ratio of the anticipated winnings to the amount wagered, based on a 3x Megaplier. In the bottom right cell, you can see that fixed prizes account for 22.37% of the total return, contrasting with the previous rules which provided 24.70%.


WHITEBALLS GOLD BALL COMBINATIONS PROBABILITY PAYS RETURN
5 1 1 0.0000000034 Jackpot ?
5 0 23 0.0000000792 1000000 0.047509
4 1 325 0.0000011189 10000 0.006713
4 0 7475 0.0000257339 500 0.007720
3 1 20800 0.0000716075 200 0.008593
3 0 478400 0.0016469727 10 0.009882
2 1 436800 0.0015037577 10 0.009023
1 1 3385200 0.0116541219 7 0.048947
0 1 8259888 0.0284360573 5 0.085308
2 or less 0 277883424 0.9566605475 0 0.000000
TOTAL   290472336 1.0000000000   0.223695

For every additional $100 million added to the jackpot, the potential return increases by 6.89%, not accounting for the annuity, taxes, or shared winnings.

If opting for the lump sum payout leads to halving the jackpot and considering the highest marginal tax rate of 37%, the break-even jackpot amount lands at $3,579,287,810. When shared, jackpots do not yield a positive outcome, given the direct link between jackpot amounts and ticket sales.

Ultimately, the Mega Millions game remains just as poor of a bet as it has always been. You should only engage in playing if you find entertainment value that is approximately 50% of the ticket price, even in the event of a loss. If you feel compelled to play the lottery, scratch-off tickets tend to offer the best value. Their returns improve with the ticket price; for instance, buying one $20 ticket has a better expected return compared to purchasing twenty $1 tickets, yet that return is still only about 77%.

Below are some links to my recent content concerning Mega Millions on Wizard of Odds.

Mega Millions page: https://internetradiomercedes.com/games/lottery/mega-millions

Mega Millions calculator (2025 rules): https://internetradiomercedes.com/games/mega-millions-calculator-2025-rulescalculator

Solution to logic puzzle

Shift the second blue coin from the right to the position between the red and green coins.