Projection for COVID-19 Fatalities in the US as of March 12, 2020

To kick off this newsletter, I should mention that I'm not an expert in epidemiology. In fact, I've navigated through life without taking any biology classes since middle school. Honestly, I feel one frog dissection was quite enough for my educational experiences. Nevertheless, I recently participated in an event at Johns Hopkins University where I helped with the dissection of a cow's eye and heart.

However, I believe that you don’t need to be an epidemiologist to form a reasonable prediction about the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak. China had an early advantage and has successfully curtailed its spread. The accompanying chart illustrates the total cases in China up to March 8, clearly showing that the total cases have plateaued while recovery rates among those under treatment are increasing.

Source of graph: Wikipedia

Next, let’s analyze the table displaying the four countries with the highest COVID-19 death tolls, alongside the United States, which is ranked eighth as of March 11.

Country	Population	Total cases	Total deaths
China	1,439,323,776	80,790	3158
Italy	60,461,826	10,149	631
Iran	83,992,949	9,000	354
South Korea	51,269,185	7,755	60
US	331,002,651	1,016	31
Total	1,966,050,387	108,710	4,234

Source: Worldometers.info - Corona virus statistics and total population .

In China, where the number of cases appears to have peaked, the ratio of the population to infections stands at 17,816, with the ratio of population to deaths being 455,771.

Now, let’s look at Italy, which has a more troubling situation in percentage terms. There, the population to infections ratio is 5,957, and the population to deaths ratio is 95,819.

Assuming that the United States falls somewhere in between these statistics, the data suggests that with a population of 331,002,651, the potential total cases and deaths before containment could be estimated as follows:

• Total infections: 18,579 to 55,561
• Total deaths: 726 to 3,454

Currently, our numbers are relatively low, indicating that we still have a long way to go. However, should we really be engaging in panic selling of stocks or frantically buying bottled water and toilet paper? I don’t believe so. Even in a dire situation leading to 3,454 deaths, that's a stark contrast to the annual 480,000 deaths in the US attributed to tobacco (source: ). To put that into perspective, that number of fatalities from tobacco is equivalent to what would occur in just 2.6 days under that grim forecast. CDC.gov That being said, I completely endorse all measures to prevent the virus from spreading as much as possible. This includes practicing 'social distancing' and increasing our handwashing frequency, particularly when in contact with others.

In the last 16 trading days, the S&P 500 index, which I believe to be a more accurate indicator than the DOW, has seen an 18% drop. This reaction reminds me of what happened in the aftermath of 9-11, and I perceive it as an overreaction rooted in fear.

In conclusion on this matter, I want to emphasize: don’t panic. We’ve all come across various iterations of the British mantra from World War II, 'Keep Calm and Carry On.' A personal twist on that saying would be, 'Keep Calm and Wash Your Hands.'

Finally, I would like to present a mathematical challenge for this week’s newsletter.

The World Series is set to begin with a matchup between the Angels and the Braves. For those unfamiliar, this is a contest where the first team to win four games is crowned champion. All bets are even money, giving each a 50% chance of success. Instead of placing future bets, you must wager on each game individually. If you wish to bet on the Angels, your aim is to win $8,000 if they triumph in the series or lose $8,000 if the Braves win. What strategy should you employ? A correct approach will need to consider all 16 possible scenarios from previous games. Simply betting $8,000 on the first game would not suffice, as the Braves could potentially win. Your goal is to secure an $8,000 win if the Angels succeed in the series and lose otherwise.

On May 2, 2024, I revisited this newsletter out of curiosity and checked the total Coronavirus fatalities in the US up to that point. The figure had risen to 1,219,487 (source: ). Clearly, my earlier prediction was far too optimistic. Oh well.

2024 Update

There are mathematically sound strategies and insights available for a variety of casino games such as blackjack, craps, and roulette, along with many others that can be played. worldometer Please check your email for a message containing a link that you need to follow in order to complete your registration.

Written by: Michael Shackleford