Sports Betting Basic Strategy

When it comes to betting on sports, my straightforward strategy can be summarized with the terms 'underdogs' and 'the under.' If you adhere to this advice, I guarantee you'll outperform most betting experts, and the beauty of it is that it's completely free. Frankly, flipping a coin might yield you better results than paying for tips from so-called experts, but let's stay focused on the main topic here.

Recently, I dedicated a significant amount of time to creating a new section focused on wagering strategies for the NHL. National Hockey League In the past, I have worked on similar guides for other sports leagues. NFL , MLB , and the NBA With this new analysis of the NHL, I aim to provide a comprehensive overview of my strategies applicable to all four major sports leagues.

The table provided illustrates the house edge for betting in the four primary sports. In the NFL and NBA, my focus is on spreads and money lines, while in MLB and NHL, I examine money lines as well as run and puck lines.

LEAGUE/BET	UNDERDOG	FAVORITE	DIFFERENCE
NFL (SPREAD)	0.57%	8.36%	7.79%
NFL (MONEY LINE)	3.91%	6.24%	2.33%
NBA (SPREAD)	4.07%	4.84%	0.76%
NBA (MONEY LINE)	3.71%	4.24%	0.53%
MLB (MONEY LINE)	1.51%	2.21%	0.70%
MLB (RUN LINE)	3.66%	3.10%	-0.56%
NHL (MONEY LINE)	3.18%	5.91%	2.73%
NHL (PUCK LINE)	3.74%	5.35%	1.61%

The data presented above indicates that underdogs have outperformed favorites in seven out of eight betting categories. The only exception was in baseball, where the difference was marginal.

The next table evaluates the house edge for over/under bets across the same four sports.

League	Under	Over	Difference
NFL	4.76%	4.17%	-0.59%
NBA	4.71%	5.16%	0.45%
MLB	3.20%	5.45%	2.25%
NHL	3.71%	5.38%	1.67%

According to the previous table, under bets showed stronger performance in three of the four sports. I suspect that over bets in the NFL had a slight edge due to the limited sample size, which consisted of only 3,220 games spanning from 2006 to 2018. I plan to refresh my NFL content before the forthcoming season kicks off in September.

Perhaps I should simplify my betting approach to just three terms: underdogs, under, and away games. I believe that the betting audience often overestimates the impact of home field advantage. The forthcoming table compares the performance of road teams versus home teams across the same four sports, specifically in bets against the spread and money line within the NBA.

LEAGUE/BET	ROAD	HOME	DIFFERENCE
NFL (SPREAD)	-1.34%	10.28%	5.10%
NBA (SPREAD)	2.70%	6.22%	3.52%
NBA (MONEY LINE)	3.71%	4.24%	0.53%
MLB (MONEY LINE)	1.70%	2.01%	0.31%
NHL (MONEY LINE)	5.18%	3.91%	-1.27%

The earlier table demonstrates that road teams excelled in four out of five evaluated categories. The noticeable player advantage for road teams in the NFL can likely be attributed to the same small sample size issue I referenced earlier.

To wrap up, I maintain that my fundamental strategy focused on underdogs and the under performs admirably. There are some exceptions, but the house edge discrepancies are minimal.

Until we meet again next week, may favorable odds accompany you!

Written by: Michael Shackleford