Handicapping Super Bowl 57

This week, I will continue my detailed analysis of the Super Bowl, evaluating the point spread and total score. The process is straightforward. I consider the latest regular season data, excluding playoff games. For each team, I calculate their expected points based on the formula: (average points scored per game + average points allowed by opponents)/2. By subtracting these two values, I determine the point spread, and adding them results in the total score. It's really that easy. I take a systematic approach in my Feb. 2, 2022 newsletter .

This approach is applicable to any matchup. When one team has the home advantage, I typically award 1.5 points to the home team and deduct 1.5 from the visiting team. However, I skip this adjustment for the Super Bowl, as it typically takes place in a neutral location. Last year posed a challenge when the Rams played at their home ground. Nonetheless, throughout the regular season, I find this tactic rarely gives an edge. Plus, Super Bowl betting often skews towards the favorites and overs, creating counter advantages.

Before diving into my forecasts for Super Bowl 57 (I prefer not to use Roman numerals), let’s take a moment to reflect on my performance since I began analyzing the Super Bowl:

Super Bowl 56

Predicted scores:

LA Rams: 24.47

Cincinnati: 24.59

Outcome: Cincinnati wins by 0.12 points.

Total points: 49.06

Lines:

LA Rams: -4/-4.5

Over/under: 48/49

Actual score:

LA Rams: 23

Cincinnati: 20

Ultimately, I believed that the over/under was set accurately, with no clear edge either way; however, I was excited about betting on the Bengals at +4.5 points. As it turned out, they covered the spread.

The basis for my predictions can be found in my newsletter from Feb. 2, 2022 .

Super Bowl 55

Predicted scores:

Kansas City: 24.63

Tampa Bay: 25.21

Outcome: Tampa Bay wins by 0.58 points.

Total points: 49.83

Lines:

Kansas City -3.5

Over/under: 57.5

Actual score:

Tampa Bay: 31

Kansas City: 9

In conclusion, I favored both Tampa Bay +3.5 and under 57.5, which proved to be winning bets.

Source of prediction: Wizard of Vegas .

Super Bowl 54

Predicted scores:

Kansas City: 23.78

San Francisco: 24.59

Outcome: San Francisco wins by 0.81 points.

Total points: 48.37

Lines:

Kansas City -1.5

Over/under: 53

Actual score:

Kansas City: 31

San Francisco: 20

While crafting my game forecast, I didn't directly recommend a specific wager. However, I suggested it was a close matchup. Additionally, my projected total points were 4.63 lower than the over/under line, which was worth considering for a bet.

Source of prediction: Wizard of Vegas .

Super Bowl 53

Predicted scores:

Patriots total points: 25.625

LA Rams total points: 26.625

Winner of game: Rams wins by 1 point.

Total points: 52.25

Lines:

Patriots -1.5

Over/under: 56.5

Actual score:

Patriots: 13

LA Rams: 3

Once again, I assessed the game as quite balanced and lacked a strong opinion on the point spread. Nonetheless, I believed the over/under line was set 4.25 points too high, making it worthwhile to bet on the under. Ultimately, only 16 total points were scored, leading to a significant under victory.

Source of prediction: Wizard of Vegas .

Super Bowl 52

Predicted scores:

Patriots total points: 23.5

Eagles total points: 23.55

Winner of game: Eagles by 0.05 points.

Total points: 47.05

Lines:

Patriots -4.5

Over/under: 48

Actual score:

Patriots: 33

Eagles: 41

This time around, I strongly backed the Eagles at +4.5, thinking it was a closely contested match. I chose not to bet on the under since it was only a point away from my projection. In the end, the Eagles not only covered the spread but also emerged as winners.

Source of prediction: Wizard of Vegas .

Super Bowl 51

Predicted scores:

Patriots total points: 26.47

Falcons total points: 24.69

Winner of game: Patriots by 1.78 points.

Total points: 51.16

Lines:

Patriots -3

Over/under: 58-59

Actual score:

Patriots: 34

Falcons:28

I felt that the line was fairly accurate this time, so I didn't commit to either side. However, I was keen on the under! Even now, I’m puzzled as to why the line was set so high. I had anticipated the total would be 7 or 8 points lower.

Source of prediction: Wizard of Vegas .

I believe my use of this method began with Super Bowl 51, and over the course of six Super Bowls, it has proven beneficial. In instances where I felt that the line or total was significantly inaccurate—by three points or more—my record stands at a perfect 7-0.

Super Bowl 57

After all the anticipation, what are my thoughts on Super Bowl 57?

I project the total points for each team to be:

Eagles: 24.88

Chiefs: 24.71

I estimate the Eagles to win by a mere 0.17 points, indicating a tightly matched contest. I predict the total points to be around 49.59.

The going odds are:

Eagles -1.5/-2

Over/under: 49.5

Unfortunately, I don’t see a substantial enough advantage to justify laying the 10% vig. Thus, I won’t be making a prediction this year. If you're curious, I assess the probability of KC+1.5 winning at 51.7%, which isn't sufficient to overcome the vigorish. For KC+2, I show a 52.8% win chance (excluding ties). Against a 10% vig, this essentially levels out to a fair bet, with a tiny 0.9% edge—not enough to wager on.

In summary, I don’t have any official picks for this year. Personally, if I can find someone to bet on the Eagles -2, I'll consider taking the opposite side at even odds.

To wrap up, I would like to pay tribute to Cindy Williams, who portrayed Shirley in Laverne & Shirley. That show was one of my favorites from the late 70s. Typically, I would host a trivia challenge in her memory around this time, but due to the urgent nature of this week’s topic, I’ll have to postpone that for a week or two, depending on whether I decide to explore proposition bets next week.

Written by: Michael Shackleford