Handicapping the Super Bowl

I trust that everyone enjoyed a wonderful Chinese New Year and Groundhog Day. To start off this newsletter, I want to clarify that I don’t classify myself as a sports handicapper, nor have I ever thought of myself as such. In my view, there are simpler methods to win in sports betting. Nevertheless, the Super Bowl tends to attract more casual bettors than any regular-season game, leading me to believe that the betting lines may not be as accurate during the Super Bowl.

When I do analyze games, my approach is straightforward. I calculate the estimated points for each team using this formula:

(average points each team scores per game + average points given up by the opponent) / 2.

For the 2021 season, we need to consider the raw scoring data:

Total points scored by Bengals = 460

Total points allowed by Bengals = 376

Total points scored by Rams = 460

Total points allowed by Rams = 372

Source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/standings

Indeed, both teams have the same total scoring figures. The points conceded by the teams differ by only four. When we divide these totals by the 17 regular-season games each team played, we derive the averages.

Average points scored by Bengals = 27.06

Average points allowed by Bengals = 22.12

Average points scored by Rams = 27.06

Average points allowed by Rams = 21.88

Returning to the earlier formula, I predict that the Bengals will score about (27.06+21.88)/2 = 24.47 points. Similarly, the Rams are expected to score (27.06+22.12)/2 = 24.59 points.

Subtracting these figures, I anticipate the Rams will narrowly defeat the Bengals by 0.12 points. Essentially, both teams appear to be quite evenly matched.

"What about the advantage of the Rams playing at home?\" you may wonder. I dismiss that notion. I feel that the home field advantage mainly stems from referee bias favoring the home side across all sports. While referees would likely deny any wrongdoing, professional sports is ultimately a business, and financial interests drive decisions. Home stadiums are filled predominantly with fans of the local team who contribute to the referees' pay and would prefer to experience a victorious game. If you're skeptical, I recommend reading the book Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim, which statistically supports this claim.

Having grown up in the Los Angeles area, I can assert that the football fandom here is rather lackluster, particularly for the previously disloyal Rams, who abandoned LA in 1995 for St. Louis. When they made their return in 2016, no one really celebrated their comeback. Moreover, their team uniforms aren't particularly appealing.

I predict that the fan turnout will be roughly balanced between supporters of both teams, and the referees will recognize that this game has a broad national audience, leading them to remain neutral regarding the outcome. However, I wouldn't completely disregard the home field advantage in this instance. I might concede one point in favor of the Rams due to it.

As I write this on February 1, the betting lines show Bengals at +4 to +4.5, with the over/under set between 48 and 49.

Therefore, I believe that betting on Bengals +4 is a smart choice! Detractors will certainly have their own reasons for believing that the Bengals aren't worthy of being here and may praise the Rams’ formidable defense. Yet, as I have demonstrated, the statistics indicate that both teams are fairly equal in their offensive and defensive performances.

Regarding the over/under, if we sum the projected points each team is likely to score, I come to a total estimate of 49.06 points. Thus, the over/under line of 49 to 50 seems accurate, and I choose not to take a position on that.

I want to reiterate my earlier disclaimer: I am not a professional handicapper and I do not guarantee any outcomes. Therefore, take my advice lightly. When it comes to recreational betting, it’s best to engage primarily for enjoyment.

Next week, I aim to explore some proposition bets. Until then, I wish you the best of luck.

Written by: Michael Shackleford