Casino Royale Analysis part 3

In this edition of our newsletter, we delve further into the analysis of Casino Royale, contributed by guest author Anne Larson.

Moving on in our examination of the poker sequences from the 2006 Casino Royale film , we come to a pivotal moment. this The YouTube video clip kicks off during a poker hand that is already underway.

The dealer is articulating the players' actions following the flop, with three individuals checking out the turn: Felix Leiter, James Bond, and Le Chiffre, who is on the button.

The turn card is revealed, and we catch a quick glimpse of the board showing Jh Ks Ac Jd. As a poker enthusiast, I'd note that the board is a complete 'rainbow' without any matching suits, which rules out the likelihood of any players completing a flush. Even though no flushes can be made, players must consider their own hands and assess that their opponents might have two pair, three of a kind, a straight, a full house, or possibly quads.

Felix Leiter, the first to act, tosses his chips onto the table with a flourish, seemingly treating them like dice, and boldly declares his opening bet of '300 grand,' trying to project an aura of confidence. Typically, in serious games, it's best for players to minimize tells and keep a neutral expression.

Moreover, it’s uncommon for a poker player to declare a bet with such a specific number '300 grand.' The usual way would be simply to state '300,' or use '300 thousand.' Players are not even obligated to verbalize their bets if they place the required amount in front of them. This dramatization serves the Hollywood narrative, aiming to captivate viewers.

Bond calls Leiter’s bet, also adding some flair, while Le Chiffre matches the bet with his own call.

At the 0:27 mark of the video, the dealer flips over a King of diamonds to reveal the river, changing the tableau to Jh Ks Ac Jd Kd.

Leiter evaluates his hand before the action shifts to Bond, who peeks at his hole cards, revealing Ah Kh, indicating he possesses a powerful full house, Kings full of Aces. Bond's action of rechecking his cards seems more for the audience's benefit than typical gameplay, as experienced players usually avoid doing this to prevent giving away tells.

Green chips $5,000

Pink chips $25,000

Black chips $50,000

Red plaques $500,000

Bond proceeds to place a single red plaque in front of him, marked as his bet of $500,000, thus establishing the value of red plaques in this context.

Green chips $5,000

Pink chips $25,000

Black chips $50,000 or $100,000

Red plaques $500,000

However, mere seconds later, at the 0:57 mark, a close-up catches Le Chiffre fidgeting with his chips, showing off a 'thumb flip.' This habit is common among players but doesn’t signify a bet. The black chips now visibly showing $100,000 indicate a continuity error from earlier, where they were shown to represent $50,000. So far, the chip values are clarified as follows:

While he’s occupied with his chips, Le Chiffre mimics a gesture he used earlier in the film, placing his hand on his face. This prompts Bond’s ally, Rene Mathis, to suggest to Vesper that this gesture is indicative of a bluff, confirming Bond's suspicions.

When the dealer prompts Le Chiffre to act, he raises the stakes to $1 million. This bold move elicits gasps from the spectators, showcasing Hollywood's flair for dramatics, especially with suspenseful music amplifying the tension. Leiter opts to fold, shifting the focus to Bond, who must now decide whether to fold, call, or raise.

Predictably sensing a tell that Le Chiffre is bluffing, Bond escalates the stakes by re-raising to $2 million at the 1:50 mark. The gathering crowd reacts with an audible gasp, with even a bystander far from the table shaking her head in disbelief.

Kudos to Hollywood for their dramatic portrayal! Yet, while the filmmakers clearly aim to evoke a sense of high stakes, I can't help but dissect the scene.

At the end of this segment, around the 3:11 mark, the dealer announces a break is warranted, during which the blinds will be set at $200,000. This suggests that before the clip, the blinds were likely at $75,000/$150,000. Given that at the clip's outset, Le Chiffre was on the button with an empty chair beside him, we might speculate the previous player was eliminated, indicating only a single big blind was posted by Leiter. Assuming that those three players engaged in the hand up to that point primarily checked the flop, the pot could have reached $450,000 by this hand's turn.

Adding Leiter’s bet along with Bond and Le Chiffre’s calls during the turn ($300,000 each, totaling $900,000) combined with the initial $450,000 pot yields a total of $1.35 million by the river. Bond’s bet of $500,000 into this pot isn't remarkable by any stretch; for context, even higher bets wouldn’t have drawn a single raised eyebrow from onlookers.

A hand that Bond could beat, such as:

Secondly, with Bond’s bet pushing the pot to an estimated $1.8 million, and Le Chiffre’s subsequent $1 million raise, this too appears trivial relative to the pot size. When Bond chooses to raise Le Chiffre’s re-raise with $2 million into a $2.8 million pot, the point about perceived significance becomes clearer.

Le Chiffre, who still needs to respond to Bond’s re-raise, goes all-in at the 2:10 mark, with the dealer stating Le Chiffre's bet to be $14,500,000. Generally, a dealer can't determine a player's total bet without counting chips, yet here he briefly touched a stack before announcing the figure. Naturally, in true poker games, a dealer only counts if prompted. But for clarity’s sake, Hollywood simplifies the process here to focus on Bond’s next move.

Mathis quietly informs Vesper at the 2:25 mark that if Bond calls Le Chiffre’s all-in bet, he too will be all-in, conveying to the audience that Bond's chip count is less than Le Chiffre's, indicating a risky position.

Faced with this dilemma, what’s Bond’s best course of action? With the luxury of pausing the film, we know he has Kings full of Aces, quite a strong hand. Yet, as a skilled player backed by a hefty $10 million buy-in, he should realize he doesn’t have the best hand possible. The board showing Jh Ks Ac Jd Kd opens up various potential hands Le Chiffre could possess:

A Broadway straight that could come from QT.

Or, a hand that could have Bond beat

Aces full of Jacks (with pocket Aces), or

Quad Jacks (with pocket Jacks).

Jacks full of Kings with a hand like Jx.

Kings full of Jacks if Le Chiffre holds Kx.

A hand that could result in a split pot, like Kings full of Aces if he held AK, like Bond.

Ultimately, at the 2:32 mark, Bond chooses to call Le Chiffre’s all-in, evidently believing Le Chiffre's previous gestures hinted at a bluff. Was he correct in that assessment?

Casino Royale Analysis part 3 - Wizard of Odds

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Written by: Michael Shackleford