Maui Vacation -- January 6, 2008

The Wizard's News

From the Wizard

It's that exciting season again for post-season NFL props. This has become a significant focus of my analysis, and it's tough not to share my insights. However, as I mention annually, the betting limits are quite low, and I face fierce competition from other knowledgeable bettors. Nevertheless, I will provide some broad advice.

Generally, it's wiser to bet on the under or the 'no' for most props.

Physical effort is just as crucial as mental effort. In the past, I've occasionally been too complacent about searching for favorable lines. This year, I intend to be more proactive and invest more time driving around to find the best opportunities.

If you're uncertain, the best choice is to avoid betting. Many establishments offer 30-cent lines on props, which means you'll be facing a hefty edge. If you're unsure about the quality of your bet and your calculations aren't solid, my suggestion is to refrain from placing it until you've analyzed it thoroughly.

Work together. If you have a friend who's also placing bets on props and you trust their judgment, talk about which options you're interested in. If your opinions differ, consider wagering against each other and share the betting juice. This principle applies to all forms of gambling.

Robbery Update

I appreciate everyone who reached out regarding the robbery I mentioned earlier. last newsletter . Sadly, I haven't received any updates from the police since their initial visit to take the report. We did manage to discover a cigarette butt, which means a smoker of Camel cigarettes may be out there with my belongings.

My 2007 gambling update

Previously, I expressed regret over a slight loss in 2007. I'm pleased to announce I've experienced some favorable luck recently and, as of December 28, I've achieved a modest profit of several thousand dollars for the year. There are still some bowl games and Week 17 of the NFL left, along with more opportunities for video poker. It's crucial for me to monitor my balance closely to avoid dipping too close to zero.

The reason for maintaining a balance close to zero at the end of the year relates to tax laws stating that you must pay taxes on your total net gambling wins, but cannot write off any annual net losses. Imagine you're perfectly even on December 31. If someone offers you +110 for a $100 bet on a coin flip, that seems ideal, but assuming you're declaring all winnings properly, you could be facing tax implications. If you're in the 25% tax bracket , corresponding to adjusted income brackets of $31,851 to $77,100 for single filers, and $63,701 to $128,500 for joint filers. If you win, you owe 25% tax on $110, leaving you with only $82.50 after taxes. Losing would mean you lose the full $100. The house edge is 8.75%. Even if you're in the lowest tax bracket of 10%, it's still advisable to decline the bet since your after-tax win would be $110 x 0.9 = $99.

Update: After penning the above, I placed bets for Week 17 in the NFL. I won't disclose specific bets or types, but I ended up losing all the stake across nine games. The bowl games I wagered on two weeks prior yielded only a minor profit. I regret crossing the breakeven line this late in the year. I acknowledge that the likelihood of losing as much as I did in Week 17 was around 1%. Consequently, I admit that my final tally for 2007 shows a loss of about $6,000. However, if we consider my overall performance, I'm still in a good position, thanks in large part to an exceptionally successful 2006.

Maui Vacation

Right before Christmas , my wife, our three children, her parents, and a mountain of luggage took a direct flight on ATA Airlines to Maui. I should pause to discuss ATA Airlines, as I had never encountered them prior to this trip. They operate as a budget airline, akin to Southwest but with assigned seating. The planes were strictly economy class, filled to capacity. While there was no complimentary meal service, snacks were available for purchase. Although I lack a ruler to measure, the legroom was notably limited, a common trait among most domestic airlines. On a positive note, both flights departed on schedule, and our baggage made it without issue, plus the ticket prices were quite reasonable. If you enjoy Southwest, you'll likely appreciate ATA as well; just make sure to pack some food.

Traveling with a family of seven, spanning ages 1 to 70, posed its challenges, so we opted for a relaxed approach on our first day. Our sole adventure involved visiting \"Big Beach.\" This stunning long stretch of sandy shoreline, located south of Wailea, is tucked away from the hustle and bustle of hotels, restaurants, and tourist activities. It's quite the sight on many postcards. Interestingly, it’s often overlooked by free tourist guides, making it a fantastic escape from the commercialization of Maui; I highly recommend Big Beach. If you feel adventurous, you can walk over a small cliff to access \"Little Beach,\" a nude beach primarily occupied by men. I’ll leave my thoughts on that to your imagination.

The following day, we celebrated my mother-in-law's birthday by reserving a spot at a lavish luau. That afternoon, we traveled from our condo in Wailea to Lahaina. Arriving early, my in-laws watched our two youngest kids beneath the magnificent banyan tree, the largest in the United States. Meanwhile, my wife and eldest daughter indulged in some window shopping. Upon returning, we found my five-year-old son, who had previously been healthy, sick and vomiting right under the glorious banyan tree. It turned out he caught an upset stomach. By then, canceling our dinner plans was no longer an option, so we went forward with it. The show was lovely, but our son spent the time between dozing off and being ill on a makeshift bed created from two chairs. My wife eventually took him to rest in the minivan, accompanying our other two children as well. We ended up spending $700 for a rather disappointing evening.

The following day, the bug spread to both my one-year-old and my in-laws. That brought us to four sick and three remaining healthy. My wife and oldest daughter engaged in a lighthearted competition to see who could remain unscathed the longest. I won't bore you with all the details, but the next three days were a whirlwind of sickness and discomfort. My oldest daughter succumbed to the bug next, followed by myself. In the end, my wife emerged victorious in the 'Survivor' challenge, and as a reward, I gifted her a Hawaiian wooden statue that resembled the tiki statue Bobby discovered on The Brady Bunch.

By our final full day, everyone was feeling well enough to leave the condo. Although I had previously made the trip, I believed the best way for our group to enjoy the day was to explore the rainy side of Maui and take the scenic road to Hana. While some may claim the road to Hana is overrated, I beg to differ. In my opinion, it's possibly the most breathtaking stretch of road in the United States. I've visited 45 states, and the only comparable sight might be the mountain pass to Skagway, Alaska. The road to Hana winds through lush rainforests alongside steep cliffs and features numerous waterfalls and gardens to admire. My favourite stop is the Haipuaene Falls, located roughly halfway between mile markers 11 and 12. The parking options by the bridge were thankfully open when we arrived. Hidden from the main road is a picturesque waterfall and swimming hole, merely a couple of minutes’ walk uphill. I only learned about this spot from the Lonely Planet guide, so enjoy it while it's still relatively unknown compared to other waterfalls in the area. We managed to get as far as the Keanae Peninsula, which is a perfect place to turn around. Here, you’ll find a rocky beach, a church primarily built from lava, and a delightful food stand. I highly recommend the taro burgers. Someday, I'll make it all the way to Hana.

In general, I found Maui to be much more commercialized than my previous visit thirteen years ago. While it's often referred to as having the best beaches in Hawaii and offers a variety of activities, I couldn't shake the feeling that it felt very much like a destination designed purely for tourists, much like Las Vegas. The only other place in Hawaii I can compare it to would be the Big Island, where we traveled four years ago. The Big Island felt more affordable, welcoming, and far less touristy. However, Maui certainly offers more activities, and its scenery is precisely what you would expect from a Hawaiian paradise.

$158 haircut

On New Year's Eve, I was invited to a luxurious party hosted by one of the prominent hotels on the Strip. They provided me with an extravagant suite, awarded me RFB status (including complimentary room, food, and drinks), and also gifted me a Tiffany crystal bowl. From my previous experiences at this same hotel, they consistently covered any charges I made to my room, even including my wife's spa services.

A week prior to the party, I tried unsuccessfully two times to book an appointment with Gina, my usual hairdresser at the Euphoria Salon located on Sahara and Rampart. By December 31, my hair was quite overdue for a trim. Believing the salon services at the hotel might be complimentary as well, and considering the typical cost was around $50, I decided to visit the salon within the Strip hotel. I won't disclose its name since I believe this scenario could be applicable anywhere, and I want to avoid coming across as ungrateful.

The haircut itself went smoothly. Despite being 42, I still find it challenging to communicate what I want when asked by the stylist. I recall once on Northern Exposure, a doctor was getting a haircut and attempted to explain his desired style. The barber interrupted him and said, 'I'll give you the haircut you need.' I've always wished a stylist would say that to me. After all, they are the experts, and I'm not knowledgeable about hair, except for the fact that mine is turning gray at an alarming rate. But I digress.

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Once again, we're approaching the season for post-season NFL prop bets. This is an area where I take great pride in my analytical skills. I genuinely wish I could share my insights with you, but as I mention yearly, the betting limits are quite low, and the competition among savvy bettors is steep. However, I can definitely offer some general advice. Runaway Bride Most of the time, the safest bet on props is to go with the under or the 'no' option.

Physical effort is just as crucial as mental effort. In previous years, I've been somewhat negligent about searching around town for favorable lines. This year, however, I intend to put in more effort by exploring a bit further afield.

Best Wishes

If you're unsure, it's best to refrain from placing a bet. Many betting locations feature 30-cent lines on props, meaning you're up against a lot of juice. If you believe a bet is decent but not exceptional, and your confidence in your calculations is wavering, I suggest holding off until you can examine it in more detail.

Ask the Wizard!

Team up with others. If you have a friend or acquaintance who is also placing prop bets and you trust their judgment, it's beneficial to talk about which sides you like, if any. If you disagree, consider betting against each other and share the juice. This applies to all forms of gambling. Ask the Wizard #200 .

I'm grateful to all who showed concern regarding the theft I mentioned. --Chuck from Mountain Top PA

However, I haven't heard a word from the authorities since they filed their report. We did manage to find a cigarette butt, indicating there's a Camel smoker somewhere with my belongings.

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From Michael Bluejay

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Previously, I expressed my disappointment over a minor loss for the year 2007. I'm pleased to announce that I've experienced a stroke of good fortune since then, and as of December 28, I am showing a modest profit of several thousand dollars for the year. There are still a few bowl games and week 17 of the NFL remaining, along with some video poker to play. I must stay vigilant about my balance to avoid dipping too close to zero.

The necessity of halting any gambling as the year concludes stems from tax regulations indicating that net winnings over the year must be reported, while net losses cannot be deducted. Imagine being even on December 31. If someone offers you +110 on a coin flip for a $100 bet, it may seem like an enticing opportunity. However, assuming you plan to report your gambling earnings as required and have enough income to incur taxes, you should decline the wager. Picture being

, which is relevant for adjusted incomes of $31,851 to $77,100 for single filers, and $63,701 to $128,500 for joint filers. If you win, you'll owe 25% tax on $110, resulting in an after-tax profit of only $82.50. Conversely, if you lose, you're down the full $100. The house's edge on this bet is 8.75%. Even in the lowest tax bracket of 10%, it's better to pass, as the winning amount after taxes would only be $110 × 0.9 = $99. Three Card Poker Update: After composing the above, I placed bets during week 17 of the NFL. I won't disclose my specific bets or types, but I lost everything I wagered across nine games. For the bowl games I bet on about two weeks ago, my winnings were minimal. Therefore, I didn't heed my own advice about staying clear of crossing the breakeven point so close to the year's end. I must admit that the probability of losing nearly everything in week 17 was a mere 1%. Accordingly, I acknowledge that 2007 resulted in a loss of about $6,000 for me. Throughout my overall life betting experience, which is the critical measure, I'm still in a good position, notably because of a highly successful 2006. Gambling 102 Just before Christmas , my wife, our three children, my in-laws, and our sizeable luggage boarded a direct flight to Maui with ATA airlines. Allow me to pause to reflect on ATA airlines, which was unfamiliar to me prior to this trip. They are certainly a budget airline, akin to Southwest but with assigned seating. Both outbound and return flights were fully booked and operated in economy class. They did not provide food service, and snacks were at an additional cost. The legroom was quite limited, typical of most domestic carriers these days. On the positive side, both flights departed on schedule, we didn't lose any luggage, and the ticket prices were quite affordable. So if you enjoy Southwest, ATA could also be a good fit if you bring your own snacks.

Traveling with a family of seven, ranging from a 1-year-old to a 70-year-old, presents its challenges, so we opted for a relaxed first day. Our sole excursion involved a trip to the spectacular 'Big Beach.' This remarkable stretch of soft sand located south of Wailea is blissfully away from the hustle of hotels, dining establishments, and various activity booths. It's frequently showcased on postcards. Interestingly, it's often overlooked in typical tourist guides, making it a perfect getaway from the commercialization of Maui; for me, Big Beach gets a resounding thumbs up. If you're adventurous, you might hike over a small cliff to reach 'Little Beach,' which is famous for its clothing-optional atmosphere, mostly frequented by men. I’ll refrain from commenting further on that.

The following day was my mother-in-law's birthday, for which we reserved a spot at an upscale luau. That afternoon, we traveled from our lodging in Wailea to Lahaina. We arrived early, which allowed my in-laws to supervise my two youngest children under the majestic banyan tree, the largest of its kind in the United States. Meanwhile, my wife and older daughter indulged in some window shopping. Upon returning, we found my five-year-old son, who had seemed fine previously, now visibly ill and vomiting beneath the beautiful banyan tree. It turned out he had caught a stomach bug. At that point, it was far too late to cancel, so we decided to attend the luau. The event featured a delightful show, but our son spent the majority of the evening alternating between sleeping and being sick on a makeshift bed we fashioned from two chairs. My wife ultimately left early to let him rest in the minivan, while our other two children opted to accompany her. Thus, our $700 evening turned out to be a bit of a disappointment.

Instant Checks Ride Again!

The following day, the illness spread to the one-year-old and both of my in-laws. With four family members down, three were left! My wife and oldest daughter turned it into a friendly competition to see who could stay healthy the longest. I won't bore you with the details, but the next few days were filled with episodes of vomiting and diarrhea. Eventually, my oldest daughter fell ill, followed by me. As it happened, my wife emerged as the winner of the 'Survivor' challenge, and I rewarded her with one of those traditional Hawaiian wooden statues that resembled the tiki that Bobby found on 'The Brady Bunch.' few options On our final full day, everyone felt well enough to leave the condo. Although I had experienced it before, I believed a great way for our group to enjoy the day was to explore the rainy side of Maui by traveling along the Road to Hana. While some might say the Road to Hana is overrated, I respectfully disagree. To me, it is arguably one of the most picturesque roads in the entire United States. Having visited 45 states, the only road that might rival it would be the mountain pass leading to Skagway, Alaska. The Road to Hana is a winding two-lane route alongside steep cliffs enveloped in lush rainforest. Along the way, you can catch glimpses of waterfalls and stunning gardens. My favorite stop is Haipuaene Falls, situated roughly midway between the 11 and 12 mile markers. At the bridge, there were only a couple of parking spaces available, which fortuitously were empty during our visit. Hidden from the view of the road is a waterfall and a swimming pool accessible with just a short uphill walk. I've only seen this gem mentioned in the Lonely Planet guide, so I recommend you check it out before it becomes too well-known, much like the other waterfalls along this route. We didn't make it all the way to Hana, but we turned around at the Keanae Peninsula, which makes for an excellent turnaround spot. Here, you can find a rocky beach, a church predominantly constructed from lava, and an excellent food stand. I'd highly suggest trying the taro burgers. One of these days, I'll make it all the way to Hana.

Overall, I found Maui to be significantly more commercialized and fast-paced than during my previous visit thirteen years ago. Maui is often heralded for having the finest beaches in Hawaii, boasting numerous activities, but much like Las Vegas, it struck me as fundamentally a tourist destination. The only other place in Hawaii I can draw a comparison to is the Big Island, which we visited four years ago. The Big Island, in contrast, is more affordable, welcoming, and far less touristy. Nonetheless, Maui offers more activities and delivers the picturesque scenery one often associates with Hawaii.

For New Year's Eve, I received an invitation to a lavish party hosted by one of the major hotels on the Strip. They accommodated me in a luxurious suite, provided RFB status (covering room, food, and beverages), and even gifted me a stunning Tiffany crystal bowl. On prior visits to this property, they also covered all expenses that I charged to my room, including spa treatments for my wife. another method A week prior to the celebration, I attempted twice, unsuccessfully, to secure an appointment with Gina, who typically cuts my hair at Euphoria Salon on Sahara and Rampart. By the time the 31st rolled around, I was long overdue for a haircut. Assuming that the haircut would likely be on the house and only about $50, I opted to visit the salon within the Strip hotel. I won't disclose the name, as this scenario could easily apply to any similar venue, and I’d prefer not to come across as ungrateful.

The haircut went well. Even though I'm 42 years old, I still struggle to articulate my desired hairstyle. I recall an episode of 'Northern Exposure' where the doctor entered a barbershop and attempted to explain his needs. The barber interrupted him, stating, \"I'll give you the haircut you really need.\" I’ve always wished a hair stylist would say something similar to me. After all, they are the professionals, while I’m just a guy whose hair seems to be turning gray more rapidly. Anyway, I digress.

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It's nearly that time of year again for NFL post-season prop bets. This is an area where I take great pride in my analytical skills. Although it's painful to keep my strategies to myself, I must remind everyone that the betting limits in this area are relatively low, and competition from other skilled bettors is fierce. Nonetheless, I will share a few general insights.

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Written by: Michael Shackleford