Absolute Poker Scandal -- November 25, 2007

The Wizard's News

From the Wizard..

Absolute Poker Scandal

In October, a significant portion of my focus was on the Absolute Poker scandal involving cheating. I became aware of a series of serious allegations on poker forums by the end of September, suggesting that some players had 'Super User' accounts that allowed them to view their opponents' hole cards. I had some log files at my disposal and noticed that a player known as POTRIPPER was performing exceptionally well. Nevertheless, I didn't have enough evidence to be convinced completely.

Then the 'bloody glove' emerged online. An accuser, using the username CRAZYMARCO, unexpectedly received from Absolute Poker a tournament transcript that revealed several pieces of sensitive information, including all players' hole cards along with their IP addresses and email details. Before this disclosure, Absolute Poker had strongly denied any possibility of players being able to see their opponents' hole cards. However, it became glaringly obvious during the tournament replay that POTRIPPER indeed had that knowledge and was exploiting it to his advantage.

On October 18 I posted an analysis of the transcript Shortly after my post, Absolute Poker admitted that some players had the ability to view all hole cards of their opponents. They acknowledged that it was an internal issue and promptly terminated the consultant responsible for this breach.

For more details, please see my Absolute Poker Investigation I have also listed additional reliable resources on the matter. Currently, trust in both Absolute Poker and the broader online poker community has been significantly compromised.

Ron Paul: A presidential candidate advocating for the legalization of online gambling

You may be curious about the stance of presidential candidates regarding online gambling, especially considering the new regulations enforced last year that complicated the situation. To my knowledge, only two candidates have publicly taken a position on this topic—one supports it, while the other does not.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul is a proponent of allowing individuals to engage in online gambling freely. He was among the few who opposed H.R. 4411, known as the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act.

Conversely, Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is against online gambling. He indicated in a questionnaire that as president, he would veto any legislation aimed at lifting the recent restrictions on online gambling.

I have more information on my site.

This isn't an endorsement of Ron Paul; I'm simply providing information for those interested in the subject.

My football betting

My main source of gambling income is sports betting , and all of this comes from football. However, this season has proven to be challenging. Between college games and the NFL, I find myself up by only 1.95%. This is a stark contrast to my expectations based on past performances. Coupled with my losses in video poker and table game tournaments throughout the year, I face the possibility of ending 2007 with a net loss. Even if that occurs, I might still come out ahead overall due to my successes in previous years, but ideally, I wish to have winning results each year.

Last year, I shared stories of my favorable gambling experiences. I'm not the kind of gambler who only talks about wins while overlooking losses, so there it is.

Home Robbery

On November 20th, while I was away on vacation, my home was burglarized. Death Valley . The intruders smashed a window beside the door, reached in, and unlocked the door.

Upon returning, we discovered that most drawers had been rifled through, and scattered items filled the floor. Thankfully, there was no deliberate destruction. The thieves seemed selective, taking only my Bose CD player, around $1000 worth of jewelry, and approximately $600 in cash. Meanwhile, they left behind five computers and a large number of antique license plates. It feels as if they've been planning this for some time. I've noticed unfamiliar cars parked in the area for extended periods or slowly cruising around the neighborhood. My neighbor mentioned that on the day of the burglary, a woman lingered in her car near our residence for quite a while. It seems suspicious that they struck while I was away. Typically, I ride my bike between my two homes several times a day, and, unfortunately, the one time I was absent, I fell victim to this crime.

The LVPD conducted a scene investigation. Initially, a cadet was dispatched to prepare a report, followed by an investigator who took numerous photographs and searched for fingerprints. The case will now be escalated to a detective. The burglars appear to have strategized their opportunity and were not overly greedy. I suspect they wore gloves and will likely attempt to sell our stolen items outside of Vegas. If I had to estimate, I'd say the chance of an arrest is around 10%, at best.

In the past year alone, we’ve also experienced the theft of two bicycles and a child's scooter across three separate incidents. This, combined with other issues like poor schools and a disengaged community, makes me contemplate relocating from Las Vegas. Given the current housing market conditions, we feel somewhat trapped until homes begin selling again. Regardless, we will probably decide to stay, but implementing an alarm system may be a short-term fix, while moving to a better neighborhood could be a part of a long-term solution.

Ask the Wizard!

Here's an excerpt from the newest Ask the Wizard , column #198.

What are your thoughts on potential presidential outcomes? For instance, are there opportunities to wager on which candidate will win the primary or the general election? Is there a way to determine the house advantage? Would you consider placing real money bets on such predictions? Personally, I believe that tracking current betting odds might be more insightful than polling data for predicting election results. Do you find any merit in this approach?— Gary

Indeed, I do place bets on elections. Back in 1996, I made my largest wager thus far on Clinton against Dole, betting at even odds. This turned out to be one of my most successful bets. Since then, I've consistently wagered on every election, often against friends. At prominent online platforms that accept political wagers, I find the market to be practically efficient. In other words, I trust that the market is largely accurate and the odds reflect the chances of each candidate winning. As I compose this on November 22, the odds presented translate into specific victory probabilities. I derive these probabilities by averaging the buy and sell prices.

You can use my article on sports futures to determine the overall house edge for any form of future betting. For politics, my instinct suggests that betting on frontrunners is generally a wise choice. For instance, I would eagerly invest in a contract for Hillary Clinton if I had an account on TradeSports. That's just my perspective.

What's new on the site

• Hand Probability Dynamics in Texas Hold 'Em : What are the chances that your rival has comparable or superior hole cards?Nov 21
• Absolute Poker Investigation : This pertains to an ongoing case of suspected cheating that I've been closely monitoring for more than two weeks. I feel prepared to officially report what I’ve unraveled thus far.Oct 18
• Deuce on the Deal : The Deuces Wild video poker game guarantees players at least one deuce.Oct 1
• Video Poker Hall of Fame : I'm honored to be inducted as a 2007 member.Sep 10
• The Kelly Criterion : A primer on striking a balance between risk and reward for advantage players.Sep 10
• Ask the Wizard columns#195 , #196 , #197 , and#198 .

From Michael Bluejay..

Bodog on the presidential election

Bodog is also accepting wagers on the presidential election . Stephen Colbert began as an 800-1 longshot, but after announcing his candidacy officially, his odds were reduced to 600-1. Following his entry into the Republican primary, he now sits at a 'mere' 225-1. Go, Colbert!

Ron Paul's odds have similarly improved as his campaign gains traction, dropping from 25 to 1 down to 17 to 1, then 12 to 1, and now standing at just 8/1.

Below are the betting lines (presented in the European 'for one' format) as of November 24, 2007:

If you’ve been paying attention, you might have noticed that the formats of the numbers in my tables differ from those in the Wizard's table. Why is that? The explanation is that odds can be expressed in several forms:

• American (e.g., -588, +240)
• Decimal (e.g., 1.17, 3.40)
• Fractional (e.g., 1/6, 12/5)
• Percentage (e.g., 85.5%, 29.4%)

Each of the examples above represents the betting odds for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on Bodog. Various methods yield the same values. Bodog allows you to choose your preferred format for displaying odds (American, Decimal, or Fractional), and I opted for Decimal. Here's a calculator (link removed) that facilitates conversion between the first three formats.

I just joined the newly formed Unity08 Party . While I'm typically skeptical about third parties, I appreciate the concept of this one: Members determine which issues matter most to them via online voting, and the convention itself takes place online, with candidates selected through this digital process. I'm all for engaging in politics from the comfort of my armchair!

Other stuff you can bet on

Not interested in politics? No worries. At Bodog, you can also place bets on:

• Whether O.J. Simpson will testify at his trial (Yes +170, No -250)
• The sex of Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony's first child (Boy -110, Girl -130)
• The name of that child (with too many options to list, click the link for details)
• Which toy manufacturer will face the next recall

..and a plethora of other intriguing bets. Bodog previously offered wagers on when oil prices would reach $100 per gallon, but they've since suspended that option.

You may recall from an earlier newsletter that I placed a $50 bet that Congress wouldn't override a presidential veto in 2007. My reasoning was that I was betting against my preferred outcome, ensuring I'd win either way. If Congress overrode the president, I would lose the bet, but, hooray! Congress defied the president! Plus, if Congress failed to override the veto, I'd still walk away with some cash from my wager.

So did I come out on top? Absolutely. As I mentioned, I had nothing to lose. On November 8, Congress successfully overturned the president's veto on a water projects bill with a striking margin of 79 to 14. Most Republicans also voted for the override, underscoring just how out of touch the President is. (This was precisely why I felt confident preferring an override even before knowing the specifics of the bill.)

Here's a thought: If I had the chance to spend $50 to influence a presidential veto, would I go for it? Absolutely! That would be money well invested.

There is an issue with the Bodog platform: Their Bet History feature only stores data for 14 days. This means I can't access any bets I placed back in May. While I can verify if a particular bet was resolved, the process isn't intuitive: You have to navigate to Manage Account >> eCash Statement. (Wait, what?) Furthermore, even this option only shows bets from the last 31 days. Players should have full access to view every bet they've made along with their outcomes, and I sincerely hope Bodog addresses this oversight soon.

Big poker news at Bodog

Two significant updates are underway at Bodog Poker: a redesigned poker client and the exciting Billionth Hand promotion.

The updated poker software is filled with numerous small enhancements that improve the overall user experience, but two changes stand out. First, players can now pick their own table felt colors and brightness levels. Traditionally, internet software has used a one-size-fits-all approach, but allowing users to customize is a far superior solution. Kudos to Bodog for implementing this feature. And the second feature I really love: the player currently in action is highlighted with a spotlight. Yes, yes, yes! There's no more squinting at a countdown timer; it’s crystal clear whose turn it is, even more so than in a physical poker game.

Sadly, Bodog Poker is still not compatible with Mac systems, and it seems unlikely that it ever will be. The casino games function smoothly on Macs via browser play, and the political betting options work without issues, but poker remains exclusive to PC users.

In other exciting news, the Billionth Hand promotion is launching. All players at the table when the billionth hand is dealt will share a $10,000 prize pot. Additional prizes are also available for different events and daily drawings. Make sure to take advantage of these opportunities.", '(Translated from English using Google Translate.)

Bodog now in Spanish

Are you fed up with all the updates from Bodog in this newsletter? Too bad, there’s more to share! Bodog is now enthusiastically welcoming Spanish-speaking players. They offer a dedicated Spanish-speaking customer service number (1-866-205-3353), a friendly Spanish email address (servicio@ instead of service@ — nice touch!), and they have plans to launch a fully realized Spanish-language gaming platform. This way, Latino and Spanish players won’t have to navigate a confusing English site filled with odd dialect marks.

Feeling overwhelmed by all the Bodog news in this newsletter? Well, brace yourself, there's even more on the horizon. Bodog is opening its doors to Spanish-speaking players with a warm welcome. They provide a special customer support phone line in Spanish (1-866-205-3353), and a user-friendly Spanish email contact (servicio@ instead of service@ — how charming!), plus they’re working on launching a comprehensive Spanish-language gaming site. This will mean that Latin and Spanish players won’t need to deal with an English-centric site peppered with strange missing diacritical marks.

(The original English version.)

Intriguing developments emerged during the recent online gambling hearing.

The U.S. House Judiciary Committee held a captivating hearing on Nov. 14th regarding the legal status of online gambling:

The U.S. Attorney appeared uncertain about whether online gambling is legal or not.

• A distinguished law professor asserted that the United States is violating international law by prohibiting online gambling.
• During a clash of intellects, a professional poker player outsmarted a member of Congress.
• The Family Research Council revealed its opposition to all gambling, including lotteries, not just online gambling.
• New legislative proposals aimed at explicitly legalizing online gambling were also mentioned, intending to eliminate any confusion.
• Let’s tackle the pressing question: Is online gambling illegal or not? If you find yourself puzzled by this, you're in good company. U.S. Attorney Catherine Hanaway appears to be uncertain as well. She provided contradictory statements during the hearing.

She initially stated unequivocally that all forms of Internet gambling are illegal, encompassing sports betting, casino games, and even poker.

However, it wasn’t long before she had to change her stance.(timecode 00:24)Whoa, that seems pretty clear cut!

Isn’t it accurate that the federal regulations do not prohibit gambling on the Internet but rather prohibit running a gambling operation?

Rep. Robert C. Scott (D-VA) asked, \"It is illegal to operate a business that takes bets or wagers.Oct 18

Deuce on the Deal But.. is there a specific ban against gambling on the Internet?Oct 1

Sep 10Ah, so gambling online actually isn’t illegal after all. This comes right after she claimed it was illegal. The Kelly Criterion

Sep 10 Ask the Wizard columns, and(2:35)

Even Representative Bob Goodlatte (R-VA), a staunch advocate for banning Internet gambling, conceded that online gambling isn’t illegal:

[T]he only legislation Congress has passed pertains to the transfer of funds. We haven’t changed any laws regarding what is lawful or unlawful for gambling.

The revelations didn’t stop there. Representative Robert Wexler (D-FL) argued, (2:42)

If [all types of Internet gambling are genuinely prohibited], why aren’t we prosecuting every lottery director in the country? Why are we not taking action against those participating in offtrack horse betting facilities in the U.S.? Why haven’t we prosecuted any fantasy sports sites across America? Enlighten me, where might I be mistaken?

Has the Department of Justice shut down even one e-lottery operation in the United States? And if not, why is that the case?

From Michael Bluejay..

Hanaway acknowledged her lack of knowledge but offered to look into it and provide an update. She doesn’t know?! That’s hard to believe.

You can watch the video of the hearing (link removed) on the House of Representatives website, along with all written testimonies from expert witnesses. I also have(2:20)

some more intriguing insights available at VegasClick.com. Bodog on the presidential election This month’s winner of the Wizard’s book,

Republican Primary

• , is Keith — subscriber #5859 (in alphabetical order) out of 11,753, who joined the list back in March 2004. Congratulations to Keith! Candidate Until next time, keep your expectations elevated.
  Accurate strategic approaches and valuable information for casino games such as blackjack, craps, roulette, and many others available online.
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Rudy Giuliani Mitt Romney