Handicapping the NFL -- September 29, 2005

The Wizard's News

September 29, 2005

From the Wizard..

I'm handicapping the NFL

With the football season now underway, I haven't been playing much video poker lately. My focus has shifted almost entirely to the NFL. In contrast to the past three seasons where I relied heavily on prop bets, I'm now venturing into the realm of sports handicapping for the first time.

Over the summer, I communicated with Don Schlesinger about my approach to sports betting, which involved assuming that the point spread and total were accurate, and then using that data to forecast prop outcomes based on historically comparable matches. Don responded that this method was too simplistic for serious bettors. His comment initially bothered me, but after mulling it over for several months, I decided to explore handicapping myself.

Honestly, if you asked me to name ten current NFL players, I'd struggle a bit. Often, women around me have a far greater understanding of the game than I do. As I attempt to navigate NFL handicapping, I'm treating it more like a mathematical card game. I won't dive too deep into my methods, but the sole elements I factor into my predictions are historical scores and home field advantage. From there, I apply a confidential mathematical formula to assess the likelihood of each team winning and to establish a fair point spread that aligns with those probabilities.

Initially, I was convinced that my efforts would result in a significant gap between my predicted lines and the actual outcomes. However, I was pleasantly surprised to discover that my basic model's predictions were within a two-point range of the actual lines about 60% of the time. Whenever I notice a discrepancy between the current line and my predictions, I mark it as an official selection.

I have established a new webpage to document and share my findings my NFL picks . After the first three weeks of betting, I've achieved a record of 13 wins and 7 losses against the spread, giving me a success rate of 65%. Although my main picks are against the spread, I have an insider tip for those subscribed to my newsletter: instead of placing bets on underdogs with the points (most of my selections are indeed underdogs), you often obtain better value by betting on them straight up.

I'm running the Las Vegas Marathon

In other developments, my webmaster, Michael Bluejay, and I are gearing up to participate in the Las Vegas marathon scheduled for December 4. This year, the course takes a beautiful route down the Strip and through downtown, unlike past years. If you're in the area that Sunday, I would love for you to cheer us on—or even better, join us in the marathon! The race kicks off and concludes at Mandalay Bay. With a start time of 6:00 AM, I anticipate finishing between 11 AM and noon, just in time to catch the conclusion of the 10:00 games.

Ask the Wizard!

After taking a four-month hiatus, I've revived the beloved Ask the Wizard column. Here's a snippet from a recent entry:

Why do table games like Roulette have betting limits? A friend told me it's to stop players from doubling down on losing bets when wagering on red or black. I disagree, as the odds remain unchanged and the strategy yields poor outcomes. Why are there maximum limits at these tables? - Mark from New York

Every casino enforces some kind of limits to safeguard against incurring losses that exceed their comfort levels. However, in most gaming areas, the maximum bet is significantly lower compared to high-limit sections. This isn't designed to protect against players using the Martingale betting system; any experienced casino manager understands these strategies result in losses over time. I asked a senior executive from a prominent Las Vegas casino, who requested anonymity, why a casino wouldn't accept a $10,000 bet in the main gaming area while being willing to do so in the high-limit room. He explained that managers only trust a select number of employees, preferring to have high-stakes action monitored by those individuals.

(Read more Ask the Wizard .)

What's new on the site

I've been diligently adding a wealth of new content to the website. Alongside my NFL predictions, you'll also discover:

• Ask the Wizard — The revival of this popular column dedicated to answering your inquiries.
• Wan Doy — An evaluation of a new card game available at WagerWorks online casinos.
• Two Up — an Australian coin-flipping game
• Casino Holdem — An updated analysis stemming from a unique one-month computer simulation.
• Draw 6 Poker — A variation of video poker where players may occasionally receive six cards on the initial draw.
• Tequila Poker — An exciting new game featured at the Hard Rock Casino.
• What's new — The 'What's New' section in the sidebar is being updated on a regular basis.

Until we meet again, aim high with your expectations.

From Michael Bluejay..

You're receiving the entire newsletter this time, rather than just a brief announcement.

A significant number of mail servers block our newsletters, categorizing them as spam. In the previous issue, we attempted sending a plain-text message that let you know the newsletter was accessible online, including a direct link. While more of you successfully received that message, fewer clicked through to read the newsletter. Hence, we're reverting to sending out the newsletter directly because that method has proven to lead to more readers, even though many may not receive it at all.

Free book by the Wizard

In each newsletter for the foreseeable future, one fortunate subscriber will win a complimentary copy of the Wizard's latest book. The winner from the last issue was Tom Mags, and this month's recipient is subscriber #3684 (out of 8426), JJLBT. I wish I could attach a real name to that. Gambling 102 As is customary, this month one participant won while 8,425 did not. This indicates that most of you are on the losing end. However, don't worry, as you have another opportunity to win next month. Also, your entry is completely free, and you are automatically entered once again.

If you calculate your expected value for winning the $14.95 book plus $3 shipping, it rates at $17.95 / 8426 = $0.00213. With a free entry every month, your winning odds over the course of a year are 1-(8425 ÷ 8246), equating to 0.0042, or one chance in 703. Thus, your expected annual value is $17.95 / 703 = about two and a half cents. My question to you is, who other than the Wizard would so generously offer you a value of just 2.5 cents out of the blue? And if someone else made a similar offer, would you accept it? Naturally, you would, as it's free value and you're wise enough to recognize it. At least, that's what your neighbors would likely say.

Bluejay's Internet tip for this month: The Internet Archive¹² Curious about what a website used to look like in the past? Your curiosity can be satisfied, thanks to the

. The dedicated team at the archive captures periodic snapshots of millions of websites across the internet and makes them accessible for everyone. It's a fantastic service that's entirely free.

. In earlier versions, graphics might be absent since the archive didn't consistently capture images, especially from the earlier years. Internet Archive You'll observe that the archive for Wizard of Odds only traces back to early 2003. That's because prior to that, we operated under THEWnternetradiomercedes.com. You can also access the archive for

Here you can see old versions of Wnternetradiomercedes.com , which goes as far back as 1999. The Wizard has been online since 1997, albeit at a different initial address, and while the archive only began capturing data from that site in early 1999, it has provided valuable insights.

Here’s THEWnternetradiomercedes.com the very first version of Wizard of Odds The archive typically lags behind by 6 to 12 months on new entries, explaining the missing data for many websites from 2005. that's archived, from January 1999.

Methods for concealing email addresses on web pages to protect against spambots.

Previous Internet tips:

• What is the energy consumption of my computer?
• Ways to use Google to search within specific websites.
• How to eliminate those bothersome animated advertisements.
• Firefox offers tabbed web browsing
• The www is optional
• Proven mathematical strategies and information relevant to casino games such as blackjack, craps, roulette, and many others available for play.

Written by: Michael Shackleford