Betting the Academy Awards -- March 16, 2004

The Wizard's News
March 16, 2004

Five thousand subscribers

As I share this update, The Wizard's News has reached a milestone of 5,000 subscribers.

Academy Awards bets

Since the Super Bowl, my gambling activity has decreased significantly, which explains the delay in the latest newsletter. I placed a few bets on the Academy Awards using the remaining balance in my Pinnacle Sports account. The betting odds for going against the favorites were astonishing:

For those who may not be familiar with how the odds work, placing a $100 bet against Return of the Kings winning best picture would lead to a payout of $426, in addition to the initial $100 stake. Conversely, to win $100 on Capturing the Friedman, you would need to bet $118, plus the return of your initial wager.

I've watched all three films in the Lord of the Rings series and found them to be equally entertaining. In past Academy Awards, the first film, The Fellowship of the Ring, received four minor accolades (for cinematography, makeup, music, and visual effects), while the second film, The Two Towers, won only two minor awards (sound editing and visual effects). Therefore, I was puzzled as to why the third installment, Return of the Kings, was being heavily favored for Best Picture. However, if the +426 odds are accurate, Pinnacle has estimated the chances of Return of the Kings winning at 81%. Personally, I just couldn't agree that Return of the Kings had an 81% chance of winning; if the odds were lower than that, then placing a bet seemed wise.

Looking at the odds, the favorites in other categories didn’t appear as strong. The odds against frontrunner Sean Penn for best actor were not compelling, and I felt that Bill Murray was the only reasonable alternative, so I placed a bet on him as well. Before finalizing my wagers, I consulted with a minor actor acquaintance, who believed Return of the Kings would not win and regarded all odds as favorable, except those against Charlize Theron.

So, what was the outcome? Every single favorite won, with the sole exception being Capturing the Friedman for best documentary. I ended up losing 84.7% of my bankroll set aside for the Academy Awards. It feels like something is off in Hollywood. If the voting process is meant to be confidential, how were the results so eerily predictable?

After making my bets and discussing them with a few professional gamblers, they all remarked that I had made a significant error. Though they weren’t certain why, they claimed that the outcomes for most categories are often known well in advance, resulting in such unfavorable odds for the favorites. I learned that the New York Times conducts a survey of eligible voters that helped them accurately predict the winners in the previous year. However, I placed my bets 28 days prior to the event, well before any such article surfaced this year. This article may have been the reason Pinnacle stopped taking bets a week before the awards ceremony.

As I mentioned in the last newsletter, I am not one to gloat after a win and remain silent after a loss. This situation ranks among my worst gambling experiences in terms of percentage loss. Fortunately, my total wagers were not too high, approximately $1,000. I am hopeful for better results from my bets on the presidential election. I have a significant amount riding on Bush losing, with odds ranging from +165 to +250. While he is likely to win, I believe it will be a close race.

New Advertiser

Lastly, I want to extend a warm welcome to our newest advertiser, Giant Vegas. They offer a broad range of bonus options:

• 100% bonus up to bonus of $125. 15x play required.
• 30% bonus up to bonus of $600. 9x play required.
• Receive a 200% bonus up to $500. A playthrough of 15x is required. Slots only.

The first two promotions exclude games such as Pontoon, Baccarat, Craps, Multi-Player Poker, Video Poker, Bingo, and Roulette. Double play is needed for blackjack. Don't forget to enter the coupon code before making your deposit.

On February 25, 2004, I played the initial bonus in full for $125. The bonus was issued instantly. Despite the double play requirement, I still viewed blackjack as my best option. Unfortunately, I lost my entire $250 balance in about 10 minutes while playing $25 blackjack. As regular readers are aware, my usual strategy for playing bonuses tends to be aiming for a substantial goal, like doubling my bankroll, or going all-in and risking it all. This approach typically leads to losses most of the time, but when I do win, I win big.

Written by: Michael Shackleford