Insights on Hole-Carding in Three Card Poker – September 6, 2003

I apologize for the delay since my last newsletter. Things have been quite hectic as I juggle several consulting projects, and I'm also developing a couple of my own games that I plan to pitch to casinos. My goal is to file for a patent pending for these two games by the time the Global Gaming Expo rolls around on September 16. I will share more about these projects in my upcoming newsletters.

As a way to compensate for my recent newsletter silence, I’m excited to offer you some of the most valuable betting advice you'll receive from me. This is a topic I've wanted to discuss for quite a while. It's previously been explored in works like 'Mastering Three Card Poker' by Stanley Ko and 'Beyond Counting' by James Grosjean. I have personally validated all of this information.

The focus of our discussion will be the game of Three Card Poker. If you're not yet comfortable with the rules, I encourage you to visit my website . This newsletter assumes you have a grasp of the game's regulations.

One particular vulnerability in Three Card Poker is that occasionally, the dealer shows one of their bottom cards when retrieving them from the shuffler. If the player can identify just one of the dealer’s cards, they can gain a 3.48% edge, especially with the 'full pay' bonuses of 1, 4, and 5.

Here is the strategy you should employ provided you can see the dealer's visible card:

It's common to intuitively sense that the dealer has a face card, although you may not pinpoint which specific one it is. In such situations, it's advisable to raise your bet if you have a queen, jack, or a five or better. Just being able to guess whether it's an ace, face, or a non-face card gives you a player advantage of 2.41%.

I've personally encountered flashing dealers more than a dozen times. Some dealers only flash occasionally, which prompts me to leave the table. I prefer to have the opportunity to see the card at least 80% of the time. Generally, the more rundown the casino is, the higher the chances of encountering flashing dealers. However, there are exceptions; for instance, the best flasher I ever saw was at the Bellagio, yet I happened to have very little money with me at that time.

It's crucial to understand that seeing a dealer’s card doesn’t benefit you in making the Pairplus bet, so you should avoid it. Keep in mind that you may be the only person at the table opting not to place this bet. Other players might push you to make it, criticize you for your decision, or even leave in frustration. When you eventually land a three of a kind or a straight flush, you might find yourself the subject of laughter or stern lectures on your choices. This has happened to me four times already. It’s tough, but no matter how hard it is to stay quiet, don’t reveal any insider knowledge while at the casino. Using information that you’re not meant to have could lead to serious consequences, so simply act as if you're a regular player who dislikes the Pairplus bet.

It’s important to note that the player edge statistics mentioned are strictly in relation to the initial ante bet. Since you’ll often be raising, the expected gain compared to your total bet is around 55% of the player edge. This game is also rather volatile when assessed against just the ante bet. Think about the largest wager you feel comfortable placing, then consider reducing that by half and betting that on the ante. More often than not, you’ll find yourself doubling your ante bet. Typically, in games where you might encounter a flashing dealer, the maximum allowed bet on the ante is $50.

This tactic is one of my go-to advantage plays. Most casinos and their dealers are aware of this strategy, but I would estimate a random Three Card Poker table has about a 3% chance of encountering a dealer who flashes. If you partake in this often, you’ll become familiar with which casinos tend to have more flashing dealers. However, please refrain from asking me for recommendations on good Vegas casinos; I like to keep some knowledge to myself.

Thank you for taking the time to read this. Until next time, aim high with your expectations.

Written by: Michael Shackleford