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Flush Fever

Introduction

Flush Fever is a video poker game I encountered at Figaro's Pizza restaurant located in Philomath, Oregon, on June 21, 2011. It was featured on an IGT Game King machine labeled as 'Video Lottery' on the top. While the game is operated by the Oregon Lottery, the dealing of cards adheres to strict fairness and randomness, comparable to regulations in Nevada. Regulation 177-200-0070 .

Subsequently, I discovered another version of Flush Fever in Las Vegas, albeit with distinct gameplay mechanics. To differentiate between the two, I will refer to this version as the Oregon variant and the one in Las Vegas simply as the Nevada variant .

Rules

The pay table of the game is structured such that the maximum payout is capped at $600, effectively reducing returns after six coin bets. Players have the option to wager up to eight coins; however, any royal flush achieved while betting the seventh or eighth coin does not grant a reward.

Flush Fever Pay Table

Hand Pays
Royal flush 400
Straight flush 100
Four of a kind 25
Full house 10
Flush 7
Straight 5
Three of a kind 2
Two pair 1

Additionally, specific bonus rules apply to the game.

  1. Whenever a player achieves a flush, straight flush, or royal flush, they will win a total of 7 Flush Fever Games.
  2. Unlike standard free games, players are required to continue wagering an amount equal to their original bet for each of the Flush Fever Games.
  3. The suit that activates the Flush Fever bonus will henceforth be referred to as the Fever Suit.
  4. Moreover, in addition to any winnings from the pay table, each card in the final hand during a Fever Game that is of the Fever Suit will yield a sum equivalent to the player's original wager.
  5. Fever Games have the potential to award additional Fever Games, allowing a maximum total of 56 bonus games.
  6. The $600 win limit established by the Oregon Lottery pertains to every individual game initiated, including any Flush Fever Games.

Analysis

The table below illustrates the expected returns from initial spins. Note that this table does not factor in the value of bonuses acquired, but the likelihood of attaining particular hands indicates that flush, straight flush, and royal flush hands are worth about 12 additional credits due to Fever Spins. The bottom right cell indicates a return rate of 63.70% from non-bonus wins.

Flush Fever Expected Returns — Initial Spins

Hand Pays Combinations Probability Return
Royal flush 400 399,357,684 0.000020 0.008014
Straight flush 100 3,569,097,180 0.000179 0.017905
Four of a kind 25 38,423,682,000 0.001928 0.048190
Full house 10 195,735,497,760 0.009820 0.098196
Flush 7 498,970,893,696 0.025032 0.175225
Straight 5 286,894,804,944 0.014393 0.071964
Three of a kind 2 1,127,665,371,096 0.056572 0.113144
Two pair 1 2,080,119,126,888 0.104354 0.104354
Nothing 0 15,701,452,685,952 0.787702 0.000000
Total 0 19,933,230,517,200 1.000000 0.636993

The subsequent table provides an overview of anticipated returns from Fever Spins. This does not account for the additional Fever Spins acquired during Fever Spins or winnings from Fever Suits. The bottom right cell shows a return of 46.84% from non-bonus wins.

Flush Fever Expected Returns — Fever Spins

Hand Pays Combinations Probability Return
Royal flush 400 330,791,403 0.000017 0.006638
Straight flush 100 2,763,418,713 0.000139 0.013863
Four of a kind 25 26,515,426,776 0.001330 0.033255
Full house 10 157,550,073,984 0.007904 0.079039
Flush 7 349,728,539,904 0.017545 0.122815
Straight", "Three of a kind", "Two pair", "Nothing", "Total", "Type of Spin", "Spins per Initial Spin", "Ratio of Spins", "Win per Spin", "Expected Win", "Base", "Fever", "Total", "Combinations in Flush Fever Hands", "Hand", "Fever Suit", "Royal flush", "Straight flush", "Four of a kind", "Full house", "Flush", "Straight", "Three of a kind", "Two pair", "Nothing", "Combinations in Flush Fever Hands", "Expand", "Hand", "Fever Suit", "Total", "Royal flush", "Straight flush", "Four of a kind", "Full house", "Flush", "Straight", "Three of a kind", "Two pair", "Nothing", "Total", "Probabilities in Flush Fever Hands", "Hand", "Fever Suit", "Total", "Royal flush", "Straight flush", "Four of a kind", "Full house", "Flush", "Straight 5 164,126,005,884 0.008234 0.041169
Straight", "Three of a kind", "Two pair", "Nothing", "Total", "Type of Spin", "Spins per Initial Spin", "Ratio of Spins", "Win per Spin", "Expected Win", "Base", "Fever", "Total", "Combinations in Flush Fever Hands", "Hand", "Fever Suit", "Royal flush", "Straight flush", "Four of a kind", "Full house", "Flush", "Straight", "Three of a kind", "Two pair", "Nothing", "Combinations in Flush Fever Hands", "Expand", "Hand", "Fever Suit", "Total", "Royal flush", "Straight flush", "Four of a kind", "Full house", "Flush", "Straight", "Three of a kind", "Two pair", "Nothing", "Total", "Probabilities in Flush Fever Hands", "Hand", "Fever Suit", "Total", "Royal flush", "Straight flush", "Four of a kind", "Full house", "Flush", "Straight 2 871,582,046,262 0.043725 0.087450
Straight", "Three of a kind", "Two pair", "Nothing", "Total", "Type of Spin", "Spins per Initial Spin", "Ratio of Spins", "Win per Spin", "Expected Win", "Base", "Fever", "Total", "Combinations in Flush Fever Hands", "Hand", "Fever Suit", "Royal flush", "Straight flush", "Four of a kind", "Full house", "Flush", "Straight", "Three of a kind", "Two pair", "Nothing", "Combinations in Flush Fever Hands", "Expand", "Hand", "Fever Suit", "Total", "Royal flush", "Straight flush", "Four of a kind", "Full house", "Flush", "Straight", "Three of a kind", "Two pair", "Nothing", "Total", "Probabilities in Flush Fever Hands", "Hand", "Fever Suit", "Total", "Royal flush", "Straight flush", "Four of a kind", "Full house", "Flush", "Straight 1 1,677,077,080,218 0.084135 0.084135
Three of a kind 0 16,683,557,134,056 0.836972 0.000000
Two pair 0 19,933,230,517,200 1.000000 0.468364

On average, players can expect to earn approximately 2.075903 Fever Suit cards per Fever Spin. Adding to this figure, the value derived from each Fever Spin would be 0.468364 plus 2.075903, totaling 2.544267.

There are numerous factors involved in evaluating the value of a Flush Fever bonus, and this is my analytical perspective.

  • The Flush Fever bonus initiates with a total of 7 free games.
  • According to the probability data presented above, the chance of obtaining a flush, which includes both straight flushes and royal flushes, during a Flush Fever game is approximately 0.017700.
  • The predicted total number of free games can be calculated as 7 divided by (1 minus 7 times 0.017700), resulting in an expected 7.989970.
  • Although the cap of 56 maximum bonus spins is relatively insignificant, it does slightly reduce the anticipated number of Fever Spins by around 0.000639, leading to an adjusted total of 7.989331.
  • The chances of hitting a flush, straight flush, or royal flush during an initial spin stand at roughly 0.025231.
  • Consequently, the expected Fever Spins per initial spin amount to 0.025231 multiplied by 7.989331, yielding 0.201580.

The following table merges the overall expected returns from both initial spins and Fever Spins, with the bottom right cell showing a combined return of 95.70%.

Flush Fever Expected Returns — Overall

Nothing Total Returns in Flush Fever Hands Hand Fever Suit
Total 1.000000 0.832237 0.636993 0.530129
Royal flush 0.201580 0.167763 2.544267 0.426833
Straight flush 1.201580 1.000000   0.956962

For those readers with a keen analysis, who are eager to delve deeper than the average of 2.075903 Fever Cards per Fever Spin, the tables that follow will dissect potential outcomes in Fever Spins—assessing poker value against Fever Card counts. The forthcoming table outlines the payouts for each outcome in Fever Hands, categorized by the poker value and the quantity of Fever Cards.

Four of a kind

Full house Flush
0 1 2 3 4 5
Straight 400 401 402 403 404 405
Three of a kind 100 101 102 103 104 105
Two pair 25 26 27 28 29 30
Nothing 10 11 12 13 14 15
Total 7 8 9 10 11 12
Strategy 5 6 7 8 9 10
Acknowledgments 2 3 4 5 6 7
My Video Poker Offerings 1 2 3 4 5 6
Basic Video Poker Info 0 1 2 3 4 5

Next up, we present the number of combinations per hand, aligned with the number of cards in the Fever Suit for Fever Hands.

My mainVideo Poker

page Return tables:
0 1 2 3 4 5 (select a game)
Hundred Play Wheel Poker 186,582,030 0 0 0 0 144,209,373 330,791,403
Probability of Ruin 1,478,982,090 0 0 0 0 1,284,436,623 2,763,418,713
for single-play video poker 0 15,212,352,972 11,303,073,804 0 0 0 26,515,426,776
Random simulations 13,396,740,840 72,337,344,390 71,815,988,754 0 0 0 157,550,073,984
of multi-play video poker 164,758,099,950 0 0 0 0 184,970,439,954 349,728,539,904
The 23,789,293,920 44,608,669,992 55,996,972,986 31,117,146,072 8,613,922,914 0 164,126,005,884
Practice / Play Video Poker for Free 37,919,054,430 333,365,054,208 384,816,777,126 115,481,160,498 0 0 871,582,046,262
Play my 148,220,109,900 589,856,830,920 682,740,166,932 256,259,972,466 0 0 1,677,077,080,218
free video poker 1,038,682,295,280 3,498,899,059,848 5,839,957,445,298 4,667,194,006,614 1,638,824,327,016 0 16,683,557,134,056
game/trainer 1,428,431,158,440 4,554,279,312,330 7,046,630,424,900 5,070,052,285,650 1,647,438,249,930 186,399,085,950 19,933,230,517,200

The following table illustrates the probability for each hand, cross-referenced with the card count in the Fever Suit for Fever Hands.

Video Poker Calculator

Analyze Other Stuff
0 1 2 3 4 5 Jacks or Better quiz
Video poker programming tips 0.000009 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000007 0.000017
San Diego County video poker survey 0.000074 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000064 0.000139
Strategies 0.000000 0.000763 0.000567 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.001330
Full-Pay Jacks or Better: 0.000672 0.003629 0.003603 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.007904
Simple Strategy 0.008265 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.009280 0.017545
(return of 99.46%) 0.001193 0.002238 0.002809 0.001561 0.000432 0.000000 0.008234
Intermediate Strategy 0.001902 0.016724 0.019305 0.005793 0.000000 0.000000 0.043725
(return of 99.52%) 0.007436 0.029592 0.034251 0.012856 0.000000 0.000000 0.084135
Optimal Strategy 0.052108 0.175531 0.292976 0.234141 0.082216 0.000000 0.836972
(return of 99.54%) 0.071661 0.228477 0.353512 0.254352 0.082648 0.009351 1.000000

Yet another table reveals the returns from each hand correlated with the number of Fever Suit cards in Fever Hands. The bottom right cell indicates that each Fever Suit hand results in a return equivalent to 2.54 times the bet placed.

Full-Pay Deuces Wild:

Simple Strategy (return of 100.71%)
0 1 2 3 4 5 Optimal Strategy
(return of 100.76%) 0.003744 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.002930 0.006674
2 to a royal (king-high) with no penalty 0.007420 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.006766 0.014186
Quick Quads: 0.000000 0.019842 0.015310 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.035153
9/6 Jacks or Better 0.006721 0.039919 0.043234 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.089874
8/5 Bonus Poker 0.057858 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.111354 0.169213
9/7 Double Bonus 0.005967 0.013427 0.019665 0.012489 0.003889 0.000000 0.055437
9/6 Double Double Bonus 0.003805 0.050172 0.077221 0.028967 0.000000 0.000000 0.160165
8/5 Triple Bonus 0.007436 0.059183 0.102754 0.051424 0.000000 0.000000 0.220797
Other Strategies: 0.000000 0.175531 0.585952 0.702424 0.328863 0.000000 1.792770
"Not So Ugly Ducks\" 0.092951 0.358075 0.844136 0.795303 0.332752 0.121050 2.544267

8/5 Bonus Poker

The Oregon Lottery generously provides guidance on which cards to retain while playing various video poker games. The recommended cards are those currently held; should players choose to follow this advice, they can simply keep hitting the deal/draw button similar to an approach taken by slot players. Players also have the liberty to ignore this advice if they prefer.

The onscreen help messages suggest that the recommendations may not be optimized for maximum outcome. Nonetheless, I trust that IGT, the manufacturer of the Game King machine, has accurately implemented the advice feature. In Fever Spins, 82% of the returns derive from Fever Cards, implying that the optimal strategy for Fever Spins revolves around maximizing the collection of Fever Cards.

10/7 Double Bonus

  • A special thanks to IGT for assisting me with various inquiries concerning the game's rules.
  • Appreciation goes out to CrystalMath for recommending that I consider the return based on all bets instead of solely the initial wager.

10/6 Double Double Bonus