Dream Card Controversy

Introduction

There has been ongoing discussion regarding whether a player is always dealt the best possible card when they receive the Dream Card . In his piece A Look at DreamCard — Part II of II, Bob Dancer mentions, \"I have played this game extensively, and I have never encountered a scenario where the DC isn't optimal — or at least among the best options." Nevertheless, in certain instances, the guidance can be misleading. For instance, here’s a screenshot from the 9/6 jacks game featured on videopoker.com. VideoPoker.com In the scenario presented, I was dealt the Q♣, providing me with three cards toward a royal flush. However, selecting any jack or king would have resulted in a stronger hand due to a high pair. Below are the expected values for the proposed move and the more advantageous choice:

Generally speaking, the game offers sound advice. Bob Dancer's article A Look at DreamCard — Part I of II points out that when two or more cards are even in value, sometimes the game entices players with a card that could lead to a misplay. Here are two screenshots from VideoPoker.com for clarification. In the left one, the game correctly supplied a card needed to complete the straight, but realistically, any six or jack would work. I suspect the choice of a heart was not by chance, as it tempted me towards the straight flush. On the right, while the game accurately completed the flush with any spade, it specifically delivered the jack of spades, luring me to aim for the royal.

9♥J♣ K♣4♥Q♣: expected value = 7.5902 coins
9♥J♣ K♣4♥J♠: expected value = 7.6827 coins

Below are additional examples of flawed suggestions from the Dream Card feature on VideoPoker.com.

In the example provided, the Q♥ was dealt, which created a high pair. Opting for either the 5♠ or 6♠ would have been a significantly better choice, providing four to a straight flush.

Once again, the game offered me the Q♥, giving me a high pair. However, choosing any spade would have allowed for a completed flush.

8♠ 4♠ Q♣ 7♠Q♥: expected value = 7.6827 coins
8♠ 4♠ Q♣ 7♠ 5♠: expected value = 11.7021 coins

In this scenario, I was dealt the 2♠, which offered a pat straight or four cards towards a straight flush draw. Instead, receiving the ten of clubs would yield four cards towards a natural royal.

Q♠ 7♠ 3♠ 2♠Q♥: expected value = 7.6827 coins
Q♠ 7♠ 3♠ 2♠ A♠: expected value = 30.0000 coins

Here, I was presented with the Q♠ for three toward a natural royal flush or a high pair. It would have been wiser to select any two or the jack for an assured straight.

J♣ K♣ Q♣ A♠ 2♠: expected value = 18.8298 coins
J♣ K♣ Q♣ A♠ 10♣: expected value = 99.6809 coins

Demonstrations of Dream Card are available, but you will need to register to participate.

K♠ 10♠9♥ Q♥Q♠: expected value = 7.0490 coins
K♠ 10♠9♥ Q♥J♣: expected value = 10.0000 coins

Internal Links

• Main Dream Card page .

External Links

• VideoPoker.com A Look at DreamCard — Part I of II written by Bob Dancer.

Sources

• A Look at DreamCard — Part II of II authored by Bob Dancer.
• Correct mathematical strategies and resources for casino games such as blackjack, craps, roulette, and countless others you can play.

Written by: Michael Shackleford