Prop on Total Kickoffs in Super Bowl 43

Introduction

Each year, Super Bowl betting markets present numerous proposition bets. Most of these bets clearly indicate who the likely winner is. In Nevada, the majority of sportsbooks refer to the Associated Press for game statistics if any ambiguity arises. It seems reasonable to rely on a neutral source for wagering evaluations. Allowing sportsbooks to make these judgments independently could lead to bias, as they may favor outcomes that maximize their profit.

During Super Bowl 43, various sportsbooks offered props related to the kickoffs. These props took different forms, such as predicting the total number of kickoffs, which team would have more kickoffs, and even specific props for the Steelers and the Cardinals. Some sportsbooks created similar props for kickoff returns, recognizing that some kickoffs may not result in a return due to various circumstances.

The next visual displays the assessed props from the Golden Nugget regarding the total kickoffs by the Steelers. It indicated that there were exactly six, resulting in a push for all involved bets.

The subsequent image was extracted from the prop sheet from the Plaza, which operates under the Lucky's sportsbooks brand. While I lack images to substantiate it, I can affirm that Stations, Hilton, and Wynn have similarly assessed kickoff props as if the total was ten.

The Pinnacle offshore sportsbook offered a betting line for either over or under 9.5 kickoffs. They initially declared the under as winning, then the over, followed by the under again, and ultimately declared both sides as winners. They communicated to a bettor who wagered on the over, stating, We acknowledge that there has been some misunderstanding regarding the 'over-under on kick-offs' prop for the Super Bowl. Due to this confusion, we will grade all bets as winners.

NFL.com distinguishes between a kickoff following a safety and a standard kickoff, labeling it as a 'free kick.' This type of kick can either be a place-kick or a punt, unlike regular kickoffs, which are strictly place-kicks.

In the game statistics, there is a section that provides the total kickoff returns (which amounted to 9 in this Super Bowl). For a kickoff return to occur, there must have been a kickoff. By this reasoning, it appears the NFL includes the kickoff return following a safety as a valid 'kickoff return,' hence resulting in a total of ten kickoffs: one at the beginning of each half, one after the safety, and seven following scores. Among the eight scores (6 TDs plus 2 FGs), one scored just before the half concluded, which means there was no kickoff afterward.

I applaud Pinnacle for this decision.

It is undisputed that the Cardinals had four kickoffs: three from touchdowns and one at the start of the first half. However, the number of kickoffs for the Steelers is more contentious. They had one kickoff following two touchdowns, two field goals, and one at the start of the second half. The second touchdown occurred at the end of the first half, eliminating the following kickoff from that score. The debate primarily revolves around whether or not to include the free kick after the safety.

Proponents for counting the free kick argue that NFL.com states there were six kickoffs by the Steelers. Additionally, the free kick, which was caught by Steve Breaston, was returned for 9 yards. Per the play-by-play account, Breaston caught kicks three separate times: a punt for 34 yards in the second quarter, a punt for 0 yards in the fourth, and the post-safety kick return for 9 yards. The statistics indicate 34 yards in punt returns and 9 in kickoff returns for Breaston. Including those 9 yards in kickoff returns suggests the free kick should be classified as a kickoff. Moreover, the term 'kick' is utilized in the play-by-play for the free kick, as it is for kickoffs, while other types of plays like punts, field goals, and extra points do not use the term 'kick.' This usage reinforces the idea that free kicks should be considered kickoffs.

On the flip side, critics argue that traditional kickoffs use a tee for the ball. In windy conditions, one player may hold the ball with a finger. However, on a safety's free kick, a tee is not allowed per NFL rules, which state, 'On a safety kick, the team scored upon puts the ball in play by a punt, dropkick, or placekick without a tee.' In most situations, the punt is favored, but it doesn’t contribute to the total number of punts. Thus, since they didn't choose to perform a kickoff using a tee, it shouldn't be classified as such. Some may argue further that even if they opted for a kickoff, the absence of the tee disqualifies it. But others counter that hand-held kickoffs due to strong winds should still count.

The guidelines on NFL.com remain ambiguous regarding the classification of a free kick. They mention, 'In addition to a kickoff, the other free kick is a kick after a safety (safety kick).' This could imply that a free kick is a distinct entity from a kickoff. However, the section addressing safety kicks is categorically listed under 'kickoff' on their website.

Initially, newspapers reported that the Steelers completed six kickoffs. Here are some extracts from the Las Vegas Review Journal and the Journal News (from Rockland County, NY) showing box scores dated February 2.

Yet, between February 3 and 4, the Las Vegas Review Journal revised their online box score to indicate five kickoffs for Pittsburgh. Similarly, the New York Times now states five in their online account, which is managed by an outside source. Sports Network .

My understanding is that sportsbooks won't accept any adjustments made post-event for wagering purposes. A historical example of such changes is the notorious baseball match from 1983. Regardless of any changes the NFL may implement regarding kickoff counts, I doubt anyone in Nevada would willingly alter how they grade this particular prop. Nevertheless, bettors who feel the grading was erroneous can appeal to the Nevada Gaming Control Board. pine tar If I had to choose, I would say that the free kick following the safety should be counted as a kickoff. This might appear to go against conventional football regulations, but I believe the manner in which the NFL and newspapers first recorded the game statistics should take precedence. Traditionally, modifications made after the game day should be disregarded.

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Additional Reading

Prop Payoff Is in the Details , from the February 12, 2009, Las Vegas Sun.

Written by: Michael Shackleford