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Betting the NHL
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Introduction
This webpage is designed to assist casual hockey bettors. I analyze important betting strategies, including money line, over/under, and puck line, to identify the best opportunities for value. Additionally, I provide some interesting hockey stats for your enjoyment.
Data and Methodology
The following information encompasses every game that took place over four NHL seasons beginning with the 2017/18 timeframe. A total of 4,875 games were contested in these four periods. It is important to highlight that the season was reduced to 1,904 games as a result of the Covid pandemic. 2020/2021 season analyses for each season. The first three seasons had closely contested betting lines, likely influenced by Pinnacle Sports. The fourth season had more typical 20-cent lines. In my assessment of expected returns below, I aggregated overall returns from all data and utilized appropriate weighting to align the returns with the 4.54% expected using a 20-cent line, prevalent among most sportsbooks for hockey betting.
The data was purchased from Big Ball Data The upcoming three sections detail my evaluation of the three primary betting methods for hockey: the money line, over/under, and puck line.
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Ice Hockey NHL
Ice Hockey NHL Championship Winner
1.88
2.19
10.09
11.5
33.18
51.12
76.14
301.62
411.12
1005.15
1251.74
1529.03
2001.53
2008.35
2008.35
2037.04
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Out of the 4,875 games examined in the last four seasons, home teams won 2,627 times (53.9%), while visiting teams were victorious in 2,248 games (46.1%). The subsequent table will provide detailed insights on how money line bets fared.
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| More odds | More odds More odds |
More odds More odds |
|---|---|---|
| More odds | 96.82% | 3.18% |
| More odds | 94.09% | 5.91% |
| More odds | 95.45% | 4.55% |
| More odds | 95.45% | 4.55% |
The next table analyzes betting outcomes concerning totals. Unsurprisingly, bets placed on the under performed better, boasting a house edge that is 1.67% more favorable than those placed on the over. This isn't unexpected since bets on the under generally succeed more than the over across all sports I've researched.
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| Everygame | Everygame Casino Sign Up Bonus - Sports |
50% up to €/$200 |
|---|---|---|
| Claim | 94.82% | 5.18% |
| Everygame | 96.09% | 3.91% |
| Everygame Casino | 95.45% | 4.55% |
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The Puck Line functions similarly to the Run Line in baseball, establishing a point spread that is always set at 1.5. The favorite teams concede 1.5 goals, while the underdogs are granted the same advantage. The subsequent table reveals that the house edge when betting on the underdog is 1.61% lower compared to wagering on the favorite team.
50% up to
| €/$200 | Claim Everygame |
Everygame Casino Sign Up Bonus - Sports |
|---|---|---|
| 50% up to | 94.62% | 5.38% |
| €/$200 | 96.29% | 3.71% |
| Claim | 95.45% | 4.55% |
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I should note the extensive time I dedicated to researching puck line bets, searching for value while assuming the fairness of money line bets. To summarize, I believe sportsbooks effectively set puck lines accurately.
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| More odds | More odds More odds |
More odds More odds |
|---|---|---|
| More odds | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| More odds | 94.65% | 5.35% |
| More odds | 95.45% | 4.55% |
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The following table outlines the average goals scored by both period and overtime for regular season and playoff games.
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I believe it is crucial to evaluate these separately because there is a motive to push toward overtime in regular season matches. Specifically, if a game is resolved after three periods, the winning team gets two points, while the losing team earns none. In contrast, if the decision comes in overtime, the winning team gains two points, and the losing team receives one. Overtime is always played in sudden death, meaning the first to score wins. Data indicates that the likelihood of entering overtime in regular season games is 22.57%, dropping to 20.89% during playoffs.
The following table illustrates the probability distribution of all potential goal counts scored per period by a single team.
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| More odds | More odds More odds |
More odds | More odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.7260 | 1.5300 | 1.7106 |
| 2 | 2.0100 | 1.9530 | 2.0055 |
| 3 | 2.0151 | 1.9008 | 2.0062 |
| More odds | 0.2257 | 0.2089 | 0.2244 |
| More odds | 5.9768 | 5.5927 | 5.9467 |
Similarly, this table presents the probability distribution concerning the total number of goals scored per period across both teams combined.
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| More odds | More odds | Everygame | Everygame Casino |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42.02% | 36.04% | 37.08% |
| 1 | 37.01% | 37.84% | 35.67% |
| 2 | 15.59% | 17.94% | 19.22% |
| 3 | 4.39% | 6.50% | 6.22% |
| 4 | 0.81% | 1.41% | 1.56% |
| 5 | 0.17% | 0.24% | 0.23% |
| 6 | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.03% |
| 7 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Sign Up Bonus - Sports | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| 50% up to | 0.8553 | 1.0028 | 1.0031 |
The subsequent table presents data on the goals scored by home teams compared to road teams over the four seasons starting in 2017.
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| Claim | Everygame | Everygame Casino | Sign Up Bonus - Sports |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.68% | 12.80% | 12.21% |
| 1 | 30.75% | 26.38% | 26.87% |
| 2 | 26.77% | 28.35% | 28.33% |
| 3 | 15.77% | 18.65% | 19.43% |
| 4 | 6.58% | 9.39% | 8.88% |
| 5 | 1.78% | 3.16% | 2.81% |
| 6 | 0.51% | 0.82% | 1.15% |
| 7 | 0.06% | 0.37% | 0.29% |
| 8 | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.04% |
| 9 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 50% up to | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| €/$200 | 1.7106 | 2.0055 | 2.0062 |
Total Goals Scored by Home Teams against Road Teams
Here is a summary of the number of goals scored by winning teams against losing teams across the four seasons that commenced in 2017.
| Claim Everygame |
Everygame Casino Sign Up Bonus - Sports |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 50% up to | |
| 0 | 0 | 40 | 46 | 88 | 61 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 264 |
| 1 | 51 | 0 | 214 | 129 | 178 | 70 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 680 |
| 2 | 49 | 227 | 0 | 334 | 151 | 130 | 41 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 952 |
| 3 | 96 | 168 | 336 | 0 | 278 | 96 | 56 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1055 |
| 4 | 68 | 180 | 191 | 274 | 0 | 128 | 24 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 887 |
| 5 | 32 | 97 | 223 | 89 | 106 | 0 | 34 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 591 |
| 6 | 11 | 44 | 56 | 93 | 38 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 283 |
| 7 | 6 | 25 | 20 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| €/$200 | 316 | 786 | 1098 | 1048 | 841 | 492 | 195 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 4875 |
Goals Scored by Winning Teams against Losing Teams
This table displays the count of victory margins and their probabilities over the four seasons starting in 2017.
| Claim | More odds | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | More odds | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
| 2 | 95 | 441 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 536 |
| 3 | 184 | 297 | 670 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1151 |
| 4 | 129 | 358 | 342 | 552 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1381 |
| 5 | 52 | 167 | 353 | 185 | 234 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 991 |
| 6 | 20 | 67 | 97 | 149 | 62 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 464 |
| 7 | 6 | 35 | 38 | 49 | 40 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 |
| 8 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| More odds | 580 | 1375 | 1514 | 952 | 347 | 92 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4875 |
The following table provides various statistics per game for both away and home teams, along with the overall totals.
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| More odds | More odds | More odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2,069 | 42.44% |
| 2 | 996 | 20.43% |
| 3 | 1,095 | 22.46% |
| 4 | 451 | 9.25% |
| 5 | 172 | 3.53% |
| 6 | 71 | 1.46% |
| 7 | 14 | 0.29% |
| 8 | 4 | 0.08% |
| 9 | 3 | 0.06% |
| More odds | 4,875 | 100.00% |
Miscellaneous Statistics — Home vs. Away
In this table, you will find assorted game statistics for both regular season contests and playoff matches, together with their cumulative totals.
| More odds | More odds | More odds | More odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| More odds | 384.95 | 379.46 | 764.41 |
| More odds | 30.56 | 31.87 | 62.43 |
| More odds | 11.36 | 12.16 | 23.52 |
| More odds | 14.34 | 13.90 | 28.24 |
| More odds | 4.68 | 5.16 | 9.84 |
| More odds | 7.47 | 8.22 | 15.70 |
| More odds | 3.58 | 3.34 | 6.92 |
| More odds | 8.47 | 7.92 | 16.40 |
| More odds | 22.37 | 23.29 | 45.66 |
| More odds | 6.32 | 7.97 | 14.29 |
| More odds | 7.95 | 10.56 | 18.52 |
| More odds | 28.42 | 29.93 | 58.35 |
| More odds | 29.93 | 28.42 | 58.34 |
Miscellaneous Statistics — Regular Season Compared to Playoffs
*: It’s important to clarify that a point differs from a goal; players can earn points for assists in creating goals. During the four NHL seasons starting in 2017, the average ratio of points to goals was 2.64.
| More odds | More odds More odds |
More odds | More odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| More odds | 759.22 | 825.24 | 764.41 |
| More odds | 62.40 | 62.79 | 62.43 |
| More odds | 23.48 | 23.95 | 23.52 |
| More odds | 27.92 | 31.91 | 28.24 |
| More odds | 9.88 | 9.34 | 9.84 |
| More odds | 15.76 | 14.93 | 15.70 |
| More odds | 6.85 | 7.77 | 6.92 |
| More odds | 16.16 | 19.18 | 16.40 |
| More odds | 43.74 | 68.15 | 45.66 |
| More odds | 14.28 | 14.39 | 14.29 |
| More odds | 18.32 | 20.89 | 18.52 |
| More odds | 58.29 | 59.09 | 58.35 |
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This table displays how the goals-to-shots-on-goal ratio breaks down through different metrics.
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| Money Line | Money Line Bets in the NHL |
|---|---|
| Bet on | 9.29% |
| Expected | 9.75% |
| Return | 9.58% |
| House | 8.91% |
| Edge | 9.52% |
