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Super Bowl 51 -- Proposition Bets

Introduction

Super Bowl 51 -- Proposition Bets

After considerable reflection and financial losses, I've made the choice to step away from placing proposition bets on NFL games. The main reason is that the style of play has evolved compared to the early 2000s. My betting strategies were based on data from as far back as 2000, when the rules differed significantly. In an effort to enhance player safety, the NFL has introduced limitations on defensive play, which has led to a rise in overall game scores.

For instance, during the period from 2000 to 2005, the average combined score in NFL games was 41.92 points. In contrast, by the regular season of 2016, this figure rose to 45.54. While this may not appear to be a drastic change, with competitive advantages being so tight recently, an increase of 8.6% in scoring can influence how advantages are perceived. Most of my favored prop bets were tailored towards more tedious, lower-scoring matches. This shouldn't be surprising, given that recreational bettors generally lean towards prop bets that promote the opposite scenario.

Furthermore, the skill level of kickers has significantly improved over the past decade. In the 2000 season, the average was 2.92 field goals made per game, whereas this number climbed to 3.34 in the 2016 regular season. This improvement can likely be attributed to the overall increase in game scores, combined with kickers having greater kicking power. In the entire 2000 season, only 37 field goals from 50 yards or more were made, averaging 0.0714 per game. By the 2016 regular season, that number shot up to 85, or 0.166 per game. Using statistics from a time with fewer field goals to inform today's betting decisions seems risky to me.

Additionally, there's a noticeable increase in competition among skilled prop bettors. The edge that used to be over 20% is now rare. I cannot pinpoint the rise of these rivals, but it’s possible that my prior attention to NFL props has contributed to this influx. In essence, I've become a casualty of my own success.

Moreover, the Super Bowls in 2014 and 2016 ended up being total failures for my betting strategy. Although 2015 was a positive year, it's clear that the prevailing trend since I began around 2005 has been downward. The occurrence of four safeties within the last eight Super Bowls did not help my cause.

To wrap things up, I'm not stating that I will never engage in proposition betting again. I did place some wagers on the AFC and NFC championship games, which did not turn out well. I might make a few minor bets as I have every Super Bowl for nostalgia's sake, but I won't be investing thousands of dollars like I once did. Instead, my bets will likely be in the lower hundreds. Additionally, I won't be endorsing any specific bets here or on the radio. Unfortunately, for the Super Bowl 2017, you'll have to navigate the waters alone.

Prop Sheets



While I won't be providing you with my predictions this year, I encourage you to explore the options available. Here are some visuals of various prop sheets for Super Bowl 51, with more to come as we approach the event.

Boyd/Coast — Version 1



 


Boyd/Coast — Version 2



Caesars



Cantor (Venetian, Palazzo, Tropicana, Cosmopolitan)



Golden Nugget



MGM/Mirage



Stations/El Cortez



South Point

 


Westgate

You can find the full list at Comprehensive listing of Super Bowl 51 prop bets from Westgate Superbook .

William Hill



You can also find the full list at Comprehensive listing of Super Bowl 51 prop bets from Westgate Superbook .

Internal Links




External Link



  • SUPER BOWL LI (2017) PROP BETTING — Join the conversation in my forum on Wizard of Vegas
  • a href=\"https://lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-points/2017/jan/27/full-list-of-super-bowl-51-prop-bets-from-westgate/\" target=_blank>Comprehensive listing of Super Bowl 51 prop bets from Westgate Superbook available at LasVegasSun.com.

Written by: Michael Shackleford