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Betting on the NBA
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Introduction
This page focuses on basketball betting, particularly the NBA, using data from 6,567 matches spanning the 2013 to 2017 seasons. It is expected that the reader has a grasp of fundamental sports betting terms; if this is not the case, you may want to check out my explanation page on. sports betting first.
Betting Against the Spread
Statistically, home teams achieve victories 58.4% of the time and typically score an average of 2.70 more points than their opponents. Nonetheless, my analysis indicates that betting on road teams against the spread offers better value, as highlighted in the following table. This table is structured around a betting ratio of 11 to win 10, with the returns column illustrating the anticipated percentage of profit (or loss when negative) relative to the amount wagered. Remarkably, home team bets carry a house edge of 6.22%, while the advantage for road teams is only 2.70%.
Road or Home Team Against the Spread
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Road | 3,280 | 0.499467 | -0.026981 |
| Home | 3,159 | 0.481042 | -0.062157 |
| Push | 128 | 0.019491 | |
| Total | 6,567 | 1.000000 | -0.044569 |
The following table presents data on the outcomes of bets placed on underdogs versus favorites with respect to the spread. This analysis excludes the 61 games where the point spread was even. I had anticipated that underdogs would perform much better, but the results were only marginally in their favor. The stats indicate that the likelihood of an underdog winning was only 0.4% higher compared to favorites. The return column reflects the expected ratio of wins for the player (with losses denoted as negative) to the amount wagered, assuming a betting standard of 11 to win 10.
Comparing Underdogs and Favorites in Terms of Spread Betting
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 3,176 | 0.488165 | -0.048375 |
| Underdog | 3,202 | 0.492161 | -0.040746 |
| Push | 128 | 0.019674 | |
| Total | 6,506 | 1.000000 | -0.044560 |
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Overs and Unders
The table below reveals the frequency of games that went over, under, or landed right on the over/under line. The returns column outlines the ratio of winnings to amount wagered, assuming a standard of 11 to win 10. As expected, the data indicates that betting on the under has a slightly better value, with a winning probability that is 0.21% higher than betting on the over.
Under or Over Against the Total
| Side | Wins | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 3,232 | 0.492158 | -0.051561 |
| Under | 3,246 | 0.494290 | -0.047084 |
| Push | 89 | 0.013553 | |
| Total | 6,567 | 1.000000 | -0.044839 |
Money Line
This subsequent table presents the anticipated returns on money line bets, considering that one unit is wagered per contest. According to the data, placing bets on road teams appears to offer superior value, with an expected return exceeding that of home teams by 0.53%.
Money Line by Side
| Side | Total Bet | Total Return | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6,567 | 6,288.75 | -0.042371 |
| Road | 6,567 | 6,323.26 | -0.037115 |
| Total | 13,134 | 12,612.01 | -0.037115 |
The following table displays the expected returns on money line bets categorized by whether the team is an underdog, favorite, or evenly matched. Interestingly, the data reveals that favorites provide better value, with an anticipated return that is 0.46% higher.
Money Line by Favorite/Underdog
| Side | Total Bet | Total Return | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 6,506 | 6262.13 | -0.037483 |
| Underdog | 6,506 | 6232.14 | -0.042093 |
| Even | 122 | 117.74 | -0.034932 |
| Total | 13,134 | 12612.01 | -0.039743 |
This table outlines both actual and projected winning probabilities according to the point spread. The projected probabilities are based on logistic regression, which stabilizes the fluctuations in data.
Winning Probability Based on Point Spread
| Spread | Wins | Games | Actual Probability |
Estimated Probability |
Fair Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -15.5 | 26 | 24 | 0.923077 | 0.922718 | -1194 |
| -15 | 40 | 39 | 0.975000 | 0.916818 | -1102 |
| -14.5 | 44 | 38 | 0.863636 | 0.910510 | -1017 |
| -14 | 49 | 44 | 0.897959 | 0.903774 | -939 |
| -13.5 | 76 | 70 | 0.921053 | 0.896589 | -867 |
| -13 | 69 | 64 | 0.927536 | 0.888933 | -800 |
| -12.5 | 88 | 80 | 0.909091 | 0.880786 | -739 |
| -12 | 102 | 87 | 0.852941 | 0.872127 | -682 |
| -11.5 | 125 | 109 | 0.872000 | 0.862937 | -630 |
| -11 | 130 | 112 | 0.861538 | 0.853198 | -581 |
| -10.5 | 135 | 113 | 0.837037 | 0.842893 | -537 |
| -10 | 168 | 132 | 0.785714 | 0.832006 | -495 |
| -9.5 | 174 | 138 | 0.793103 | 0.820527 | -457 |
| -9 | 231 | 191 | 0.826840 | 0.808443 | -422 |
| -8.5 | 206 | 154 | 0.747573 | 0.795748 | -390 |
| -8 | 248 | 193 | 0.778226 | 0.782438 | -360 |
| -7.5 | 273 | 194 | 0.710623 | 0.768513 | -332 |
| -7 | 269 | 186 | 0.691450 | 0.753978 | -306 |
| -6.5 | 314 | 227 | 0.722930 | 0.738839 | -283 |
| -6 | 337 | 237 | 0.703264 | 0.723112 | -261 |
| -5.5 | 336 | 209 | 0.622024 | 0.706812 | -241 |
| -5 | 358 | 245 | 0.684358 | 0.689965 | -223 |
| -4.5 | 348 | 224 | 0.643678 | 0.672599 | -205 |
| -4 | 344 | 205 | 0.595930 | 0.654746 | -190 |
| -3.5 | 328 | 186 | 0.567073 | 0.636446 | -175 |
| -3 | 349 | 195 | 0.558739 | 0.617742 | -162 |
| -2.5 | 340 | 199 | 0.585294 | 0.598683 | -149 |
| -2 | 367 | 206 | 0.561308 | 0.579320 | -138 |
| -1.5 | 283 | 157 | 0.554770 | 0.559710 | -127 |
| -1 | 254 | 135 | 0.531496 | 0.539913 | -117 |
| 1 | 254 | 119 | 0.468504 | 0.460087 | 117 |
| 1.5 | 283 | 126 | 0.445230 | 0.440290 | 127 |
| 2 | 367 | 161 | 0.438692 | 0.420680 | 138 |
| 2.5 | 340 | 141 | 0.414706 | 0.401317 | 149 |
| 3 | 349 | 154 | 0.441261 | 0.382258 | 162 |
| 3.5 | 328 | 142 | 0.432927 | 0.363554 | 175 |
| 4 | 344 | 139 | 0.404070 | 0.345254 | 190 |
| 4.5 | 347 | 124 | 0.357349 | 0.327401 | 205 |
| 5 | 358 | 113 | 0.315642 | 0.310035 | 223 |
| 5.5 | 336 | 127 | 0.377976 | 0.293188 | 241 |
| 6 | 337 | 100 | 0.296736 | 0.276888 | 261 |
| 6.5 | 314 | 87 | 0.277070 | 0.261161 | 283 |
| 7 | 269 | 83 | 0.308550 | 0.246022 | 306 |
| 7.5 | 273 | 79 | 0.289377 | 0.231487 | 332 |
| 8 | 248 | 55 | 0.221774 | 0.217562 | 360 |
| 8.5 | 206 | 52 | 0.252427 | 0.204252 | 390 |
| 9 | 231 | 40 | 0.173160 | 0.191557 | 422 |
| 9.5 | 174 | 36 | 0.206897 | 0.179473 | 457 |
| 10 | 168 | 36 | 0.214286 | 0.167994 | 495 |
| 10.5 | 135 | 22 | 0.162963 | 0.157107 | 537 |
| 11 | 130 | 18 | 0.138462 | 0.146802 | 581 |
| 11.5 | 125 | 16 | 0.128000 | 0.137063 | 630 |
| 12 | 102 | 15 | 0.147059 | 0.127873 | 682 |
| 12.5 | 88 | 8 | 0.090909 | 0.119214 | 739 |
| 13 | 69 | 5 | 0.072464 | 0.111067 | 800 |
| 13.5 | 76 | 6 | 0.078947 | 0.103411 | 867 |
| 14 | 49 | 5 | 0.102041 | 0.096226 | 939 |
| 14.5 | 44 | 6 | 0.136364 | 0.089490 | 1017 |
| 15 | 40 | 1 | 0.025000 | 0.083182 | 1102 |
| 15.5 | 26 | 2 | 0.076923 | 0.077282 | 1194 |
In the rare instance where you come across a point spread exceeding an absolute value of 15.5, you can estimate the winning probability using the formula e^(-0.16*s)/(1+e^(-0.16*s)), where 's' represents the point spread.
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When I last revised this page in 2018, I found several outdated tables that I lacked the motivation to update. However, I felt that the effort I put into creating them originally was too significant to just discard, so I chose to separate this information. Obscure Topics in Betting the NBA .