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Lesser-Known Topics in Major League Baseball Betting

Last updated: Apr 16, 2025

Lesser-Known Topics in Major League Baseball Betting

Introduction

This section serves as a supplementary material to my primary page regarding Betting Major League Baseball When I initially designed that page, it utilized data from the MLB seasons spanning 2000 to 2009. In September 2018, I made revisions that took into account the information from the 2016 and 2017 seasons. However, there were some intricate tables I hadn't updated. I had invested a significant amount of time on them, so I decided to transfer that information to this separate page instead of discarding it.

Source of Data

The foundation of this analysis stems from the games played in Major League Baseball from 2000 to 2009. I had to eliminate a few games due to issues with incomplete or corrupted data.

Run Line Bets

Regrettably, my analysis does not cover run line bets. Nevertheless, I have prepared tables that can help you identify the fair run line based on the fair money line (F.M.L.) and the total. I applied logistic regression to develop these tables, which was quite a challenging process.

The initial table focuses on away underdogs receiving +1.5 runs. To obtain the fair money line for a home favorite with -1.5 runs, simply take the opposing line by multiplying it by -1.

Fair Run Lines for Away Underdogs +1.5

F.M.L.	Total
F.M.L.	7	7.5	8	8.5	9	9.5	10	10.5	11	11.5	12
100	-212	-207	-203	-199	-195	-191	-187	-183	-180	-176	-173
105	-203	-199	-195	-191	-187	-183	-179	-176	-172	-169	-165
110	-195	-191	-187	-183	-180	-176	-172	-169	-165	-162	-159
115	-188	-184	-180	-176	-173	-169	-166	-163	-159	-156	-153
120	-181	-177	-174	-170	-167	-163	-160	-157	-154	-150	-147
125	-175	-171	-168	-164	-161	-158	-154	-151	-148	-145	-142
130	-169	-165	-162	-159	-156	-152	-149	-146	-143	-140	-138
135	-164	-160	-157	-154	-151	-148	-145	-142	-139	-136	-133
140	-159	-155	-152	-149	-146	-143	-140	-137	-135	-132	-129
145	-154	-151	-148	-145	-142	-139	-136	-133	-131	-128	-125
150	-150	-147	-144	-141	-138	-135	-132	-130	-127	-124	-122
155	-146	-143	-140	-137	-134	-131	-129	-126	-124	-121	-119
160	-142	-139	-136	-133	-131	-128	-125	-123	-120	-118	-116
165	-138	-136	-133	-130	-127	-125	-122	-120	-117	-115	-113
170	-135	-132	-130	-127	-124	-122	-119	-117	-115	-112	-110
175	-132	-129	-127	-124	-122	-119	-117	-114	-112	-110	-108
180	-129	-126	-124	-121	-119	-116	-114	-112	-109	-107	-105
185	-126	-124	-121	-119	-116	-114	-112	-109	-107	-105	-103
190	-124	-121	-119	-116	-114	-112	-109	-107	-105	-103	-101
195	-121	-119	-116	-114	-112	-109	-107	-105	-103	-101	101
200	-119	-116	-114	-112	-109	-107	-105	-103	-101	101	103
210	-114	-112	-110	-108	-105	-103	-101	101	103	105	107
220	-110	-108	-106	-104	-102	100	102	104	107	109	111
230	-107	-105	-103	-101	102	104	106	108	110	112	115
240	-104	-102	101	103	105	107	109	111	114	116	118
250	-101	101	103	106	108	110	112	115	117	119	122
260	102	104	106	109	111	113	115	118	120	123	125
270	105	107	109	111	114	116	118	121	123	126	129
280	107	110	112	114	117	119	121	124	127	129	132
290	110	112	115	117	119	122	124	127	130	132	135
300	112	115	117	120	122	125	127	130	132	135	138
310	115	117	120	122	125	127	130	133	135	138	141
320	117	120	122	125	127	130	132	135	138	141	144
330	119	122	124	127	130	132	135	138	141	144	147
340	122	124	127	129	132	135	138	140	143	146	149
350	124	126	129	132	134	137	140	143	146	149	152
360	126	128	131	134	137	139	142	145	148	151	154
370	128	131	133	136	139	142	145	148	151	154	157
380	130	133	135	138	141	144	147	150	153	156	159
390	132	135	137	140	143	146	149	152	155	159	162
400	134	136	139	142	145	148	151	154	158	161	164

Let's go through an example to understand how to utilize the table properly. On April 6, 2010, the Las Vegas Hilton provided betting options for the Yankees against the Red Sox. As is customary, the home team is noted last in the matchup.

Yankees vs. Red Sox

Team	Money Line	Total	Run Line
Yankees	125	9.5	-170
Red Sox	-135	9.5	150

The fair money line for the Yankees would be +130, which is determined by evenly distributing the juice between the two clubs. Then, you would need to look up the corresponding value for +130 and 9.5 in the table, which shows -152. Consequently, the fair run line wagers would be:

Yankees +1.5 -152
Red Sox -1.5 +152

The actual run lines recorded were -170 and +150. Based on my analysis, the house edge for the Yankees' run line would be 4.20%, while for the Red Sox it would be 0.79%.

By the way, the final score of the game was Yankees 6, Red Sox 4 .

The next table reflects the fair run lines for home underdogs. The notable disparity with the away underdog table arises because gaining an extra 1.5 runs is significantly more advantageous for an away team. This is because the game concludes after any decisive play from the home team in the 9th inning or later, leading to numerous instances where the home team wins by just one run.

Fair Run Lines for Home Underdogs +1.5

F.M.L.	Total
F.M.L.	7	7.5	8	8.5	9	9.5	10	10.5	11	11.5	12
100	-171	-169	-168	-166	-165	-163	-162	-160	-159	-157	-156
105	-164	-162	-161	-159	-158	-156	-155	-153	-152	-150	-149
110	-157	-156	-154	-153	-151	-150	-148	-147	-146	-144	-143
115	-151	-150	-148	-147	-145	-144	-143	-141	-140	-139	-137
120	-145	-144	-143	-141	-140	-139	-137	-136	-135	-134	-132
125	-140	-139	-138	-136	-135	-134	-133	-131	-130	-129	-128
130	-136	-134	-133	-132	-130	-129	-128	-127	-126	-124	-123
135	-131	-130	-129	-127	-126	-125	-124	-123	-122	-120	-119
140	-127	-126	-125	-123	-122	-121	-120	-119	-118	-117	-116
145	-123	-122	-121	-120	-119	-118	-116	-115	-114	-113	-112
150	-120	-119	-117	-116	-115	-114	-113	-112	-111	-110	-109
155	-116	-115	-114	-113	-112	-111	-110	-109	-108	-107	-106
160	-113	-112	-111	-110	-109	-108	-107	-106	-105	-104	-103
165	-110	-109	-108	-107	-106	-105	-104	-103	-102	-101	-100
170	-108	-107	-106	-105	-104	-103	-102	-101	100	101	102
175	-105	-104	-103	-102	-101	-100	101	102	103	104	105
180	-103	-102	-101	100	101	102	103	104	105	106	107
185	-100	100	101	102	103	104	105	106	107	108	109
190	102	103	104	105	106	107	108	109	110	111	112
195	104	105	106	107	108	109	110	111	112	113	114
200	106	107	108	109	110	111	112	113	114	115	117
210	110	111	112	113	114	115	117	118	119	120	121
220	114	115	116	117	119	120	121	122	123	124	126
230	118	119	120	121	123	124	125	126	127	129	130
240	122	123	124	125	127	128	129	130	132	133	134
250	126	127	128	129	130	132	133	134	136	137	138
260	129	130	132	133	134	136	137	138	139	141	142
270	133	134	135	137	138	139	141	142	143	145	146
280	136	137	139	140	141	143	144	145	147	148	150
290	139	141	142	143	145	146	148	149	150	152	153
300	143	144	145	147	148	150	151	152	154	155	157
310	146	147	149	150	151	153	154	156	157	159	160
320	149	150	152	153	155	156	158	159	161	162	164
330	152	153	155	156	158	159	161	162	164	165	167
340	155	156	158	159	161	162	164	165	167	169	170
350	158	159	161	162	164	165	167	168	170	172	173
360	160	162	163	165	167	168	170	171	173	175	176
370	163	165	166	168	169	171	173	174	176	178	179
380	166	167	169	170	172	174	175	177	179	180	182
390	168	170	171	173	175	176	178	180	181	183	185
400	171	172	174	175	177	179	181	182	184	186	188

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Alternate Totals

It's common to encounter different totals when you plan to place an over or under bet in baseball, such as 7.5 and 8. Naturally, a higher cost is associated with securing the half-point in your favor. The cost varies depending on whether you are buying or selling an odd or even number, as odd totals tend to be more frequent in baseball. During the zeros decade (a term waiting to be coined), 59.2% of Major League Baseball games wrapped up with an odd total. I trust the reasons for this are clear. The subsequent tables outline the fair price to pay for purchasing an additional half-point on either an over or under wager.

To utilize the table effectively, check the lower line if you're betting on the under and the higher line if you're wagering on the over. The usage of the second or third column will depend on whether you're examining an over or under bet and whether the base line is odd, even, odd +0.5, or even +0.5. Specifically, for under bets, refer to the second column for an odd or even +0.5 base number; otherwise, consult the third column. In contrast, for over bets, use the second column for an odd or odd +0.5 base number; otherwise, refer to the third column.

Alternative Totals for Purchasing a Half Point

Market Line	Off the Under
	Odd, Even +0.5	Even, Odd +0.5
	Off the Over
	Odd or Odd +0.5	Even or Even +0.5
-140	-177	-165
-135	-170	-159
-130	-164	-153
-125	-157	-147
-120	-151	-141
-115	-144	-135
-110	-138	-129
-105	-131	-123
100	-125	-117
105	-119	-111
110	-114	-106
115	-109	-102
120	-104	103
125	-100	107
130	104	111
135	108	115
140	112	119

Let’s consider an example of applying the table. For instance, during the Astros vs. Marlins game today (August 20, 2010), the Hilton has an under option at 7.5 for -105 while the MGM offers under 8 at -135. Which bet is more advantageous? The figure 7.5 is categorized as an 'odd +0.5' number. The row for -105 and the column for 'even, odd +0.5' converge at -123. This implies that there is no significant preference between betting under 7.5 at -105 and under 8 at -123. As the actual MGM price stands at -135, the better bet in this case would be under 7.5 at -105 offered by the Hilton.

The next table illustrates the fair price to consider if you wish to purchase a half-point on an over wager. For example, in the context of the same Astros vs. Marlins game, you have the option to bet over 7.5 at -115 at the Hilton and over 8 at +115 at the MGM. Which option is superior? We should base our evaluation on the line of 8, as the alternative of 7.5 is half a point more favorable. By examining the +115 row along with the 'even or even +0.5' column, we find that the fair equivalent is -102. The Hilton's price for over 7.5 being -115 is less favorable than the -102, thus making over 8 at +115 from the MGM the preferable bet.

Let’s explore a few additional examples for clarity. Here are betting lines from the Braves vs. Cubs game.

Hilton: Over 10 -115, Under 10 -105
MGM: Over 10.5 EV, Under 10.5 -120

If we assume under 10 at -105 to be reasonable, then the equivalent line would be under 10.5 at -123. Thus, the under 10.5 at -120 at the MGM would be the better option. Conversely, if we consider over 10.5 to be fair, the correlated line would be over 10 at -117, making the over 10 at -115 from the Hilton the better choice.

Next, let's take a look at the lines from the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox game.

Stations: Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115
Hilton: Over 8 -125, Under 8 +105

Assuming under 8 at +105 to be fair would mean the equivalent price is under 8.5 at -111. Since under 8.5 at -115 found at Stations is less attractive, under 8 at +105 is the more favorable bet. Similarly, if we decide that over 8.5 at -105 is fair, then the equivalent line would be over 8 at -123, leading us to conclude that the over 8 at -125 from the Hilton is not as favorable, with the over 8 at -105 being the better choice.

Total Runs, Hits, and Errors

During the post-season, betting establishments may provide a combined over/under prop on the total runs, hits, and errors combined. I have observed a relatively linear correlation between project totals and the actual results of runs, hits, and errors. The least-squares regression line representing the estimated total runs, hits, and errors can be expressed as 12.45 + 1.817 × t, with t symbolizing the projected total.

The table that follows presents the estimates for total runs, hits, and errors in accordance with the forecasted total runs.

Uncommon Subjects Related to Wagering on Major League Baseball

Total	Sample Size	Estimated	Actual
6	1	23.35	14.00
6.5	71	24.26	24.46
7	610	25.17	24.81
7.5	1635	26.08	26.36
8	2393	26.98	26.74
8.5	4122	27.89	27.80
9	5337	28.80	28.88
9.5	4472	29.71	29.92
10	2395	30.62	30.53
10.5	1736	31.53	31.42
11	747	32.43	32.22
11.5	285	33.34	33.75
12	131	34.25	33.80
12.5	102	35.16	33.61
13	77	36.07	35.97
13.5	55	36.98	36.73
14	47	37.89	35.96
14.5	35	38.79	40.29
15	15	39.70	45.33

Run Scored in First Inning

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Run Scored in First Inning Data

Total	RSFI	Total Games	Ratio
5	0	1	0.00%
5.5	13	17	76.47%
6	30	68	44.12%
6.5	134	335	40.00%
7	537	1127	47.65%
7.5	1093	2313	47.25%
8	1544	3109	49.66%
8.5	2603	5039	51.66%
9	3054	5859	52.12%
9.5	2415	4403	54.85%
10	1199	2163	55.43%
10.5	811	1358	59.72%
11	313	516	60.66%
11.5	128	206	62.14%
12	72	112	64.29%
12.5	64	103	62.14%
13	47	68	69.12%
13.5	26	41	63.41%
14	10	16	62.50%
14.5	8	12	66.67%
15	1	1	100.00%
Total	14102	26867	52.49%

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This section serves as a supplementary resource to my primary webpage on

When I initially developed that webpage, it utilized information from the seasons spanning from 2000 to 2009. In September 2018, I refreshed it to incorporate stats from the 2016 and 2017 seasons. Yet, there were some obscure statistics that I didn't get around to updating. Since I had invested significant time into them, I decided to store the content on this separate page instead of discarding it.

p = 0.2554 + 0.0304×t + 0.000724×f , where

p = Probability of first-inning run
t = Projected game total
f = Favoritism points on the over

The insights in this analysis derive from Major League Baseball games conducted between 2000 and 2009. Some games had to be excluded from my study due to incomplete or corrupted data.

Favoritism Points on the Over

Money Line on Over	Favoritism Points
130	-40
125	-35
120	-30
115	-25
110	-20
105	-15
100	-10
-105	-5
-110	0
-115	5
-120	10
-125	15
-130	20
-135	25
-140	30
-145	35
-150	40

Sadly, my data doesn't provide insights into run line bets. However, I’ve created tables that can assist in calculating the fair run line based on the fair money line (F.M.L.) and total. Compiling these tables required the application of logistic regression, which was quite challenging.

The initial table pertains to away underdogs with a spread of +1.5 runs. To find the fair money line for a home favorite with a spread of -1.5 runs, simply take the opposite line by multiplying by -1.

Let’s consider an example to illustrate how to utilize the table. On April 6, 2010, the Las Vegas Hilton provided betting options for the match between the Yankees and the Red Sox, with the home team being listed last.

The equitable line for the Yankees stands at +130, calculated by splitting the juice evenly between the two teams. Next, check the table for the +130 and 9.5 values, resulting in -152. Consequently, the fair run line bets would be:

In reality, the run lines were -170 and +150. If my analysis holds true, the house edge for the Yankees run line would be 4.20%, while for the Red Sox, it would be 0.79%.

By the way, the final score of the match was

The subsequent table outlines the fair run lines for home underdogs. The significant variation compared to the prior table for away underdogs stems from the extra 1.5 runs being of greater utility for an away side. This is because the home team's winning play in the 9th inning or later can conclude the game, resulting in many instances where the home team prevails by a single run.

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Written by: Michael Shackleford