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Is the Shopping Spree jackpot of $4 million worth pursuing based on its expected value?

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Introduction

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As of the latest update, the most substantial online slot jackpot belongs to the Shopping Spree game, having escalated to $4,017,954 as of August 29, 2019. This section aims to assess the chances of winning and the game's overall payout potential . Bovada Bovada Casino has garnered a user rating of 4 out of 5 stars.

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What We Know

According to our sister site, Casino Listings , we know the following:

  • Current jackpot = $4,017,954*
  • Requirement to qualify for the jackpot = Landing five diamond rings on one of the nine available paylines.
  • This jackpot has previously been won just once , amounting to $1,244,529 on December 4, 2011.
  • Jackpot seed at $100,000.
  • Winnerz Casino received a user rating of 4.1 out of 5 stars.

*: As of August 29, 2019.

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No Bonus Casino achieved a rating of 3.9 out of 5 stars from players.
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#AD. The cash back will be calculated the next day between 10:00 and 12:00 CET. Players who lost all their deposits during the previous day (from 00:00 to 23:59 CET) will receive 10% cash back credited to their account. To qualify, deposited balances will be checked to ensure they are no more than €10. This cash back offer remains valid for a period of ten (10) days and must either be withdrawn or staked again. Player activity will be monitored prior to cash back approval.
Introduction

Bovada

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18+. Bovada Casino In general, it can be quite challenging to accurately determine the odds for slot machines. Occasionally, casinos will share their theoretical return percentages, but unfortunately, Bovada does not disclose this information.
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With that being noted, I will estimate the overall return for this game at 95% , factoring in the average value of progressive payouts.

A crucial point of curiosity is the likelihood of hitting the jackpot with each spin. To investigate this, a member from the forum and I documented 850 spins, keeping track of the frequency of diamond rings appearing on any of the three reel positions. Here are the findings:

Using common industry expectations, I will assume a meter increase of 1.5% .

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1 83
2 68
3 64
4 86
5 88

Video slots operate using strips of symbols on reels. The game selects a random number for each reel to determine stopping points, which then displays the corresponding symbols to the player. Payouts are issued based on what is shown on the screen.

What We Know

If we take the observation of the Diamond Ring appearance on each reel as the accurate probability, then the likelihood of landing a Diamond Ring on all five reels can be calculated as (83/850)×(68/850)×(64/850)×(86/850)×(88/850) = 1 in 162,311.

However, achieving the jackpot necessitates that the five Diamond Rings are positioned on one of the nine active paylines. Since there are a total of 3, which equates to 243 paylines, the probability that five scattered Diamond Rings, with one appearing on each reel, land on an active payline is 9/243 = 1 in 27. Consequently, the total probability of securing five Diamond Rings on an active payline is (1/162311) × (1/27) = 1 in 4,382,383.

With the current jackpot sum of $4,017,954 and a winning probability of 1/4,382,383, the anticipated payout from the jackpot per spin comes to approximately 92 cents. When factoring in the required wager of $11.25, the return from the jackpot translates to 8.15%.5As previously noted, the jackpot's initial value was positioned at $100,000. The player’s benefit calculation is $100,000 × 9 × (1/36) / $11.25 = 0.13%. Assuming a meter increment of 1.5% and a total return of 95%, that would leave 95% - 0.13% - 1.5% = 93.37% allocated for all other winning outcomes.

In summary, this translates to a fixed win value of 93.37% alongside 8.15% for the progressive aspect, totaling to 101.45% . Keep in mind that these calculations rely on some rough estimations, so it's wise to approach this information with a degree of skepticism.

Additionally, I determine the break-even point for the jackpot to be at $3,304,617.5Understanding the Break-Even Amounts for Online Jackpots and Real-Time RTP Figures.

Gaining an online advantage (when the player has favorable conditions).

— A comprehensive collection of data on Shopping Spree and several other progressive jackpots.

Join the discussion about Shopping Spree in my forum at

According to our sister site, Casino Listings , we know the following: Current jackpot = $4,017,954* Jackpot seed at $100,000.  
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