100% Rebate on Slot Losses

Introduction

Last year, I learned about two casinos that provided a 100% reimbursement for slot losses as part of their promotions. This implies that any documented losses from slot machines will be fully returned during the promotional timeframe. Typically, these refunds are issued as free play and may be divided into installments to encourage repeated visits.

Such promotional offers can be extremely beneficial for players. This page aims to illustrate potential winnings for players and suggest realistic winning targets.

Strategy

If a slot loss rebate program permits video poker, players might want to consider that option. However, savvy casino management may choose to either exclude video poker or disallow high-denomination machines from qualifying. It’s possible that high-denomination slots could yield better outcomes under a 100% loss rebate scheme, based on specific rules and availability of games.

Generally, volatility can hinder the advantage player, but when aiming to leverage a loss rebate, it actually works in your favor. It's crucial to avoid the house edge diminishing your bankroll. Your objective should be to reach a winning target swiftly or risk losing it all. To achieve this, you should place the highest possible bets, which typically would amount to 2 or 3 credits on a single-line $100 game. The example referenced here is the single-line Double Diamond slot.

Understanding the set return rate of a slot machine is essential to make informed decisions about your winning target. Unfortunately, players rarely have access to this information. High-denomination slots often have a higher payout rate, typically around 95% for $25 and above in Las Vegas. However, in smart casinos, machines might be temporarily adjusted to lower payouts during promotions. Generally, the minimum return on slots is around 85%. Thus, during a 100% loss rebate promo, it would be wise to conservatively estimate an 85% return.

For those who are new to slot machines, it’s important to note that these returns are only theoretical averages and don’t guarantee short-term outcomes. Each slot spin is independent. Probability states that if a machine offers a 95% expected return, the more it’s played, the closer the actual return will hover around that percentage over time. This principle applies universally in gambling. Law of Large Numbers .

Example

For an 85% payout machine with a maximum loss of 800 credits, the ideal winning goal is 120 units, with a projected win of 72.74 units and a success rate of 28.05%. Yet, keep in mind that the expected win remains relatively high for smaller targets as well. Considering factors such as time lost returning to collect the rebate, setting a reasonable target around half the optimal winning goal seems practical. Kelly Criterion In case you're unfamiliar with my use of 'unit', it represents the total amount wagered. For instance, if you place a bet of 2 credits on a single $100 game, a unit in this scenario is $200. A winning target of 60 units would correlate to an expected gain of 67.16 credits. So, with a $200 wager, your anticipated return would be $200 multiplied by 67.16, amounting to $13,432.

In all the tables presented, the optimal goal has been marked in green to the nearest ten units.

800-Credit Bankroll

This analysis utilizes the Double Diamond machine data

400-Credit Bankroll

200-Credit Bankroll

100-Credit Bankroll

50-Credit Bankroll

25-Credit Bankroll

Methodology

and is based on numerous random simulations. These simulations relied on par sheets mathematically sound strategies and information relevant to various casino games, including blackjack, craps, roulette, and many others. Mersenne Twister random number generator.

Written by: Michael Shackleford