Lucky Larry's Lobstermania

Introduction

In an ongoing effort to demystify the operation of slot machines, I provide a detailed analysis of the IGT game Lucky Larry's Lobstermania, using insights from an academic study. The document titled 'PAR Sheets, Probabilities, and Slot Machine Play: Implications for Problem and Non-Problem Gambling' was authored by Kevin A. Harrigan and Mike Dixon from the University of Waterloo, located in Ontario, Canada. This research came to light via the Canadian Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act, for which I commend the Canadian government. This webpage aims to deepen the analysis of Lobstermania beyond the findings shared in Harrigan and Dixon's paper.

The authors of the paper obtained par sheets It's important to recognize that there are various versions of Lobstermania that feature subtle variations in the paytable and bonus round specifics.

Harrigan and Dixon provided the symbol distributions for two Lobstermania versions, corresponding to return rates of 85.0% and 96.2%. It’s evident that the higher payout version contains a greater quantity of high-value symbols and that those symbols are spread out more evenly across the five reels. For instance, the 85.0% version has the clams distributed as 10, 8, 3, 4, 7 across the reels, while the 96.2% version distributes them as 6, 6, 5, 6, 6. Nevertheless, the counts for the key symbols like wilds, scatters, and bonuses are identical in both iterations.

Reel Strips

Lobstermania Symbol Distribution — 85.0%

Lobstermania Symbol Distribution — 85.0% Reel Strips

Below is the pay table for Lobstermania. All winning combinations must align from the left. The wild symbol works as a substitute for any symbol that contributes to a win.

Pay Table

There are a total of 47 × 46 × 48 × 50 × 50 = 259,440,000 different potential outcomes in Lobstermania. The following table outlines how many of these combinations yield each specific win. These results were computed using a program that involved five nested loops to tally winnings from all possible combinations.

Line Pay Math

Lobstermania Line Pay Combinations

Lobstermania Line Pay Probabilities

Players receive a credit for a scatter pay symbol if it appears anywhere on the screen. Scatter wins are determined based on the total amount wagered. The next table illustrates the figure of scatter symbols per reel, total symbols present on each reel, and the probability of encountering a scatter on that reel, calculated as 3 × (column 2)/(column 3). The multiplication by 3 accounts for the three visible positions on every reel.

Scatter Pay

The subsequent table outlines the probabilities and contributions to the return for having between 0 to 5 scatter symbols. The lower right corner reveals that the scatter pay feature provides a 10.65% return in the game's overall return.

Lobstermania Scatter Pay Probabilities and Returns

Bonus

The bonus game consists of three segments, elaborated as follows:

There are three potential outcomes for the number of lobster traps: 2, 3, and 4, each being equally likely. Therefore, the expected number of traps is 3.

• Number of lobster traps.
• Number of lobsters per trap.
• Size/win of each lobster.

Each trap may yield either 2 or 3 lobsters, with both possibilities equally probable. As a result, the average number of lobsters per trap is 2.5.

The value of each lobster can range from 5 to 250. Each prize has an associated weighting, as outlined in the accompanying table. The game might select a random integer from 1 to 322 and correspond it to a weight based on this table. The expected average winning per lobster is noted to be 44.02.

The average win from the bonus can be calculated with the formula (average traps) × (average lobsters per trap) × (average win per lobster) = 3 × 2.5 × 44.021739, resulting in an average of approximately 330.16.

The expected return for the bonus feature can be calculated as (bonus probability) × (average win per bonus), yielding approximately 0.190890.

The following table summarizes the various winning avenues available in the game. The bottom right cell indicates an expected return of 85.012%. In other words, for every dollar wagered, the player can anticipate a return of around 85 cents.

Summary

The paper by Harrigan and Dixon stated that they received par sheets for seven different versions of Lobstermania, with available return rates of 85.0%, 87.5%, 90.0%, 92.5%, 94.0%, 95.0%, and 96.2%.

Enjoy the video below, where I demonstrate how to analyze Lucky Larry's Lobstermania using Excel.

Video

I have extensively analyzed numerous slot machines. Here’s a compilation of my findings:

Direct link: https://youtu.be/XyWex4nMjq0?si=ni68uo2_E4_MK8Ig .

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Written by: Michael Shackleford