Wizard Pai Gow Basic Strategy

Introduction

This section presents a straightforward approach to playing pai gow. The strategy is designed to be easy to grasp while also reducing mistakes compared to the most effective method. I suggest this tactic for novice and intermediate players.

The Basic Strategy

When facing conflicting rules, prioritize the one that appears first in the guidelines.

In this strategy, score hands with 9 points or fewer based directly on their point values. Consider Gongs as equivalent to 10 points, Wongs as 11 points, and pairs as 12 points.

1. If one method of playing a hand outperforms the other two options, make that your choice.
2. Pairs
   
   
   • Never split 10\"s or 11\"s.
   • If splitting a pair yields a higher score than keeping it intact, proceed with the split.
   • If keeping or splitting a pair results in the same score and that score is below 15, opt to split the pair.
   • Otherwise, retain the pair
3. One High-9, Gong, or Wong Possible
   
   
   • Play the best high.
4. Strategies for Playing High-9, Gong, or Wong in Two or Three Ways
   
   
   • Always play the 12 tile in the high hand when you have both the 2 and 12 tiles.
   • When your total points are 10 or 11, aim to maximize your high hand.
   • With a total of 12 points, prioritize maximizing the high, unless you have a High-8 Gong, in which case, strive for a balanced hand.
   • If your total is 13 points, focus on maximizing the high unless it’s a High-8 Gong, in which case play a High-9.
   • For totals of 14 points or more, aim to play a High-9; if that's not possible, then opt for the Low-8 Gong and 5 in the low if feasible, otherwise play the best low possible.
5. All Other
   
   
   • With 6 or less total points, balance.
   • With 7 to 9 points, play best high.
   • With a score of 10 to 15 points, if you can achieve 5 or more in the low, then balance your play. If not, select the best high option available.
   • With 16 or more points, play best high.

Analysis

The table below illustrates how the Wizard Basic Strategy holds up against the optimal strategy when the dealer is banking. The last row indicates that the basic strategy has a house edge of 1.98%, while the optimal strategy has a lower edge of 1.66%. The bottom right cell reflects the error cost for the Basic Strategy when not banking, which is 0.32%.

This table displays a comparison between the Wizard Basic Strategy and the optimal strategy when the player is banking. The final row reveals that the basic strategy maintains a house edge of 0.08%, while the optimal strategy offers a better edge of -0.18%. The bottom right cell shows that the error cost while utilizing the Basic Strategy, when not banking, stands at 0.26%.

H9/G/W = High-9, Gong, or Wong

Assuming the player banks fifty percent of the time, the overall house edge with the Basic Strategy sits at 1.03%, which is 0.29% greater than the 0.74% associated with the optimal strategy.

Acknowledgements

I want to express my gratitude to J.B. for providing a spreadsheet that outlines the expected value of all three approaches to playing each of the 3,620 possible pai gow hand classes, significantly simplifying and enhancing the development of this strategy.

Written by: Michael Shackleford