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Mulligan Poker
Introduction
Three Card Mulligan is an alternative version of Three Card Poker where players can swap their initial hand for a second one if they wish. This game was developed and patented by me and is distributed by Shuffle Entertainment. It first launched in January 2013 at the Cowboys Casino in Calgary, Alberta.
Rules
- A single 52-card deck is used.
- The ranking order for poker hands is outlined as follows:
- Straight flush
- Three of a kind
- Straight
- Flush
- Pair
- Ace high and less
Ante and Mulligan Pay Table
Player Hand | Pays |
---|---|
Straight flush | 6 to 1 |
Three of a kind | 4 to 1 |
Straight | 3 to 2 |
All other | 1 to 1 |
Pair Plus Pay Table
Player Original Hand | Pays |
---|---|
Straight flush | 40 to 1 |
Three of a kind | 30 to 1 |
Straight | 6 to 1 |
Flush | 3 to 1 |
Pair | 1 to 1 |
All other | Loss |
Ante Analysis
The following table outlines the probabilities and expected returns for every possible outcome of the Ante bet in Three Card Mulligan, with the bottom right cell indicating a house edge of 3.57%.
Three Card Mulligan Return Table
Event | Mulligan | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Straight flush | Yes | 12 | 0.001075 | 0.012894 |
Three of a kind | Yes | 8 | 0.001160 | 0.009284 |
Straight flush | No | 6 | 0.002169 | 0.013014 |
Three of a kind | No | 4 | 0.002341 | 0.009365 |
Straight | Yes | 3 | 0.015675 | 0.047025 |
Less than straight | Yes | 2 | 0.169427 | 0.338855 |
Straight | No | 1.5 | 0.031575 | 0.047363 |
Less than straight | No | 1 | 0.286811 | 0.286811 |
Tie | No | 0 | 0.000608 | 0.000000 |
Tie | Yes | 0 | 0.000500 | 0.000000 |
Loss | No | -1 | 0.176960 | -0.176960 |
Loss | Yes | -2 | 0.311698 | -0.623396 |
Total | 1.000000 | -0.035744 |
Players will typically place the Mulligan bet about 50.0% of the time, resulting in an average wager of 1.5 units and an Element of Risk of 2.38%.
Pair Plus Analysis
The next table depicts the probabilities and potential returns for all outcomes related to the initial Pair Plus wager in Three Card Mulligan, showing a house edge of 7.28% in the bottom right cell.
Pair Plus Analysis — Initial Hand
Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Straight flush | 40 | 48 | 0.002172 | 0.086878 |
Three of a kind | 30 | 52 | 0.002353 | 0.070588 |
Straight | 6 | 720 | 0.032579 | 0.195475 |
Flush | 3 | 1096 | 0.049593 | 0.148778 |
Pair | 1 | 3744 | 0.169412 | 0.169412 |
Loser | -1 | 16440 | 0.743891 | -0.743891 |
Total | 22100 | 1.000000 | -0.072760 |
The subsequent table illustrates the probabilities and expected returns for later Pair Plus bets in Three Card Mulligan under the assumption that players employ an optimal strategy, with the bottom right cell revealing a house edge of 7.66%. This variation in house edge occurs due to the impact of the discarded cards.
Pair Plus Analysis — Mulligan Hand
Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
Straight flush | 40 | 0.002155 | 0.086192 |
Three of a kind | 30 | 0.002335 | 0.070036 |
Straight | 6 | 0.032363 | 0.194179 |
Flush | 3 | 0.049547 | 0.148641 |
Pair | 1 | 0.169018 | 0.169018 |
Loser | -1 | 0.744582 | -0.744582 |
Total | 1.000000 | -0.076515 |
Strategy
Players should refrain from playing with hands lower than K-10; otherwise, they should consider taking a Mulligan.