Lucky 8's

Introduction

I first encountered Lucky 8's back in June 2016 at the Venetian. This game introduced a fresh concept in the world of table games, which is increasingly rare these days due to the prevalence of imitations. Its betting format resembles that of Three Card Poker, incorporating a choice to either raise or fold, with a requirement for the dealer to possess a qualifying hand. Scoring is uniquely based on how many sets of 8-point combinations can be formed from a hand of eight cards.

Rules

Here are the rules to Lucky 8's.

1. The game utilizes two specially modified decks of cards. Each deck includes only the cards from aces to eights along with a single joker, bringing the total number of cards to 66.
2. In this game, aces are valued at one point, while the joker is worth eight points. All other cards maintain their pip value for scoring purposes.
3. The action begins as the player places an Ante bet and may also opt for an additional Lucky 8 side bet.
4. The dealer subsequently distributes eight cards to both the player and themselves.
5. Upon receiving their cards, the player will assess them to identify the most advantageous combinations of eight-point groups they can form. A grouping can consist of any number of cards, even just a single card. If there are various methods to achieve the same number of groupings, the player should choose the option that uses the highest number of cards.
6. At this stage, the player must decide to either fold or make an In to Win bet, which must exactly match the amount of the Ante bet.
7. If the player chooses to raise, they should organize their cards into two distinct groups: one group for cards part of an eight-point combination and another for remaining cards, known as the Side Cards. Should the player choose not to raise, the dealer will take the Ante bet.
8. After the players have made their decisions, if none have folded, the dealer will reveal their hand to check for at least one natural eight card or a joker. The dealer requires at least one of these to be considered qualified. If they do not qualify, the Ante bet pays out at a rate of 1 to 1, and the In to Win bet is returned.
9. If the dealer does qualify, they will organize their hand with the same goal as the player: to maximize the number of eight-point sets. If multiple configurations exist for achieving this, the dealer will aim to minimize the number of Side Cards while still maximizing their set count.
10. The hands of the player and dealer will then be compared, and the winner is determined by who has the most sets of eight points. In cases where both have the same number of sets, the winner is the one with fewer Side Cards.
11. Should the player win, both the Ante and In to Win bets will result in a payout at 1 to 1.
12. If the dealer wins or the round ends in a tie, both the Ante and In to Win bets will be lost.
13. The outcome of the Lucky 8's bet is determined based on how many natural eights are present in the player's hand (the categories being eights or jokers). The dealer's hand is irrelevant in this instance, and the Lucky 8's bet is resolved regardless of whether the player raises or folds.

Take a look at this rack card. You can click on either image for a larger view.

Strategy

The strategy hinges on the number of eight-point sets the player can successfully create, as well as the Side Cards, outlined as follows:

• 1 or less sets: Always fold.
• With two sets established, raise the bet if there are two or fewer Side Cards; otherwise, it's best to fold.
• 3 or more sets: Always raise.

Analysis

The table below illustrates the probabilities and potential returns of all conceivable outcomes for the Ante bet. The bottom right cell indicates a house edge of 2.03%.

When employing optimal strategy, players will raise their bets approximately 80.9% of the time, resulting in an average total bet of 1.809 units. This leads to an Element of Risk, calculated as the ratio of expected loss to the average total bet, equating to 2.03%/1.809, which is approximately 1.12%.

The following table presents the probability and its contribution to the return for all possible outcomes associated with the Lucky 8 bet. The bottom right cell shows a house edge of 10.66%.

Acknowledgement

I would like to thank Score Gaming I would like to express my gratitude for their assistance in the creation of this webpage by providing me with the GLI math report. This significantly expedited my analysis process.

External Links

Discussion of Lucky 8 in my forum at Wizard of Vegas .

Written by: Michael Shackleford