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Texas Lottery
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Introduction
The Texas Lottery began its operations on May 29, 1992 ( source ). It returns 63.1% of ticket sales as prizes. From the remaining funds, 27% is allocated for educational initiatives, 9.5% covers operational costs, and 0.4% of unclaimed prizes primarily supports Veterans ( source ). However, not all games offer a 63.1% payout. The returns can fluctuate between 44% and 78%, so it's important to select your games wisely.
In a unique twist, the Texas Lottery requires players entering games with annuity grand prizes to decide between accepting an annuity or taking a lump sum at the purchase moment. I'm not sure why this question is posed to everyone.
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The rest of this page contains my analysis of the several ways to play the Texas Lottery. However, for those who just want the executive summary, here is the overall return of each game:
- Pick 3: 48% to 50%
- Daily 4: 44.3% to 50%
- Cash 5: 50%
- Lotto Texas: 50% to 51.8%
- Texas Two Step: 50%
- Triple Chance: 54.40%
- All or Nothing: 56.00%
- Powerball: 50%
- Mega Millions: 50%
- Scratch Cards: 60% to 77.8%
Here’s a brief guide on how to engage with each lottery game, especially where choices need to be made beyond simply selecting numbers:
- For Pick 3, it’s advisable to place straight 'exact order' bets rather than box 'any order' bets, or to focus on totals of 0, 3, 24, or 27.
- Daily 4 recommends straight 'exact order' bets over box 'any order' bets, or should center on totals of 3 or less or 33 and higher.
- For Lotto Texas, consider using the Extra feature, which tends to provide better returns than the standard game.
- When it comes to Scratch Cards, the potential for return increases with the ticket price. Avoid playing games that carry trademarked names.
In conclusion, I offer this general wisdom for participating in any lottery game:
- It may be best to skip playing altogether. State lotteries generally present dismal odds. With few exceptions, participating often represents the least favorable wager you can take.
- For any game that involves picking numbers, I recommend utilising the Quick Pick feature. Those who select their own numbers risk having to share the jackpot with numerous other players who have chosen the same numbers for similar reasons.
Here's an overview of my insights into each game.
Pick 3
The Pick 3 Pick 3 is a game occurring four times daily (except Sundays) where both the player and lottery select three digits from 0 to 9, with options to place bets of $0.50, $1, or $5. There’s also a 'Sum it Up' bet based on the cumulative total of the lottery's three picked numbers.
Players can opt for 'exact order' or 'any order' gameplay. Winning is more challenging when matching numbers in sequence, yet the reward is greater. Winning probabilities, and the payouts for 'any order', hinge on whether players pick three unique numbers (like 1-2-3) or a pair (like 1-1-2).
The subsequent table illustrates winning amounts, winning probabilities, and the expected return for all three play methods. The last column indicates that the expected returns are 50% for 'exact order' plays and 48% for 'any order'.
Pick 3 Return Table
Bet | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Exact order | 500 | 1 | 0.001 | 0.500 |
Any order (1-2-3) | 80 | 6 | 0.006 | 0.480 |
Any order (1-1-2) | 160 | 3 | 0.003 | 0.480 |
Another table summarizes the 'Sum it Up' betting option. The average total outcome is 13.5; thus, if you wager farther from that figure, your winnings will be larger if you succeed. The last column indicates a maximum return of 50% for totals of 0, 3, 24, and 27.
Pick 3 — Sum it Up
Bets | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 or 27 | 500 | 1 | 0.001 | 0.500 |
1 or 26 | 166 | 3 | 0.003 | 0.498 |
2 or 25 | 83 | 6 | 0.006 | 0.498 |
3 or 24 | 50 | 10 | 0.010 | 0.500 |
4 or 23 | 33 | 15 | 0.015 | 0.495 |
5 or 22 | 23 | 21 | 0.021 | 0.483 |
6 or 21 | 17 | 28 | 0.028 | 0.476 |
7 or 20 | 13 | 36 | 0.036 | 0.468 |
8 or 19 | 11 | 45 | 0.045 | 0.495 |
9 or 18 | 9 | 55 | 0.055 | 0.495 |
10 or 17 | 7 | 63 | 0.063 | 0.441 |
11 or 16 | 7 | 69 | 0.069 | 0.483 |
12 or 15 | 6 | 73 | 0.073 | 0.438 |
13 or 14 | 6 | 75 | 0.075 | 0.450 |
Daily 4
The Daily 4 Daily 4 is a game played every day except Sundays where both the lottery and player each select four digits from 0 to 9, with options for bets of $0.50, $1, or $5. Players can also place bets for matching two specific digits or for the cumulative total of all four numbers.
The following table provides the probabilities for winning each prize, the average payouts, and returns for different play styles. A dedicated line is included for each method pertaining to box bets, indicating how numbers may repeat. The sample in parentheses is merely an illustration; for instance, combinations like 1-1-2-2 signify any two pairs.
Daily 4 Return Table
Bet | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Straight | 5000 | 1 | 0.0001 | 0.50 |
Box (1-1-1-2) | 1200 | 4 | 0.0004 | 0.48 |
Box (1-1-2-2) | 800 | 6 | 0.0006 | 0.48 |
Box (1-1-2-3) | 400 | 12 | 0.0012 | 0.48 |
Box (1-2-3-4) | 200 | 24 | 0.0024 | 0.48 |
From the returns listed, the straight bet, which requires matching numbers in order, offers the best odds at a return rate of 50%.
There's a trio of Pair bets (Front Pair, Middle Pair, Back Pair), which require matching just two specific numbers. These bets payout $50 and present a 1% likelihood of winning, providing a 50% return.
The next table gives an overview of the 'Sum it Up' betting option for Daily 4. The average total is 18; thus, betting farther from this mark will yield higher payouts upon winning.
Daily 4 — Sum it Up
Bets | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 or 36 | 5000 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.500 |
1 or 35 | 1250 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.500 |
2 or 34 | 500 | 10 | 0.001 | 0.500 |
3 or 33 | 250 | 20 | 0.002 | 0.500 |
4 or 32 | 142 | 35 | 0.004 | 0.497 |
5 or 31 | 89 | 56 | 0.006 | 0.498 |
6 or 30 | 59 | 84 | 0.008 | 0.496 |
7 or 29 | 41 | 120 | 0.012 | 0.492 |
8 or 28 | 30 | 165 | 0.017 | 0.495 |
9 or 27 | 22 | 220 | 0.022 | 0.484 |
10 or 26 | 17 | 282 | 0.028 | 0.479 |
11 or 25 | 14 | 348 | 0.035 | 0.487 |
12 or 24 | 12 | 415 | 0.042 | 0.498 |
13 or 23 | 10 | 480 | 0.048 | 0.480 |
14 or 22 | 9 | 540 | 0.054 | 0.486 |
15 or 21 | 8 | 592 | 0.059 | 0.474 |
16 or 20 | 7 | 633 | 0.063 | 0.443 |
17 or 19 | 7 | 660 | 0.066 | 0.462 |
18 | 7 | 670 | 0.067 | 0.469 |
The final column indicates the maximum return is 50% for totals of 0, 1, 2, 3, 33, 34, 35, and 36.
Cash 5
Cash 5 is a straightforward $1 game offered daily where players and the lottery each select five numbers ranging from 1 to 37. Payouts are awarded for matching between 2 and 5 numbers.
At least 50% of ticket sales are earmarked to winning players (source: Texas Regulation 16.9.401.D(2) ). The top three prize levels share from the 50% pot reserved for winners. Payouts for matching 2 numbers are fixed at $2. The subsequent table outlines the distribution of these winnings.
- Match 5: 40.15%
- Match 4: 18.08%
- Match 3: 41.77%
- Match 2: $2
The next table reveals the average payouts under these guidelines, predicated on at least one winner in the five-number match category.
Cash 5 Return Table
Catch | Average Win |
Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
5 | $47,677.52 | 1 | 0.000002 | 0.109378 |
4 | $134.19 | 160 | 0.000367 | 0.049254 |
3 | $10.00 | 4,960 | 0.011379 | 0.113791 |
2 | $2.00 | 49,600 | 0.113788 | 0.227577 |
1 | $- | 179,800 | 0.412483 | 0.000000 |
0 | $- | 201,376 | 0.461981 | 0.000000 |
Total | 435,897 | 1.000000 | 0.500000 |
It often occurs that no player matches all five selected numbers. When this happens, the 40.15% share designated for matching five numbers is redistributed to those matching four. The subsequent table illustrates average prizes for each winning scenario, assuming no one hit all five numbers.
Cash 5 Return Table
Catch | Average Win |
Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
5 | $0.00 | 1 | 0.000002 | 0.000000 |
4 | $432.17 | 160 | 0.000367 | 0.158632 |
3 | $10.00 | 4,960 | 0.011379 | 0.113791 |
2 | $2.00 | 49,600 | 0.113788 | 0.227577 |
1 | $0.00 | 179,800 | 0.412483 | 0.000000 |
0 | $0.00 | 201,376 | 0.461981 | 0.000000 |
Total | 435,897 | 1.000000 | 0.500000 |
The probability of any win is 12.55%.
Lotto Texas
In Lotto Texas, a $1 game, both players and the lottery choose six numbers from 1 to 54. There's an optional 'extra' bet that enhances smaller win payouts. Drawings take place on Wednesdays and Saturdays. The jackpot is disbursed as a 30-year fixed annuity unless the lump sum option is elected.
According to the As delineated by the Texas Lottery Commission (Title 16.9.401.D.rule 401.305), the allocation of ticket sales directed to prizes follows this distribution: The next table provides insights into winning probabilities, average payouts, and contributions to the returns based on all possible winning scenarios, assuming there is at least one winner of the jackpot.
- Catch 6: 40.47%
- Catch 5: 2.23%
- Catch 4: 3.28%
- Catch 3: Fixed prize of $3
If the jackpot goes unclaimed, the 40.47% allocated will instead support winners matching five numbers. For such cases without jackpot winners, the average payout for catching five would be $38,292.36.
Lotto Texas
Catch | Average Win |
Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
6 | $10,452,253.68 | 1 | 0.00000004 | 0.404700 |
5 | $1,999.81 | 288 | 0.00001115 | 0.022300 |
4 | $50.07 | 16,920 | 0.00065512 | 0.032800 |
3 | $3.00 | 345,920 | 0.01339365 | 0.040181 |
2 | $0.00 | 2,918,700 | 0.11300892 | 0.000000 |
1 | $0.00 | 10,273,824 | 0.39779140 | 0.000000 |
0 | $0.00 | 12,271,512 | 0.47513972 | 0.000000 |
Total | 25,827,165 | 1.00000000 | 0.499981 |
The probability of any win is 1.41%.
The subsequent table aggregates the pay scale, winning probabilities, and contributions to returns associated with the Extra option. Players are not able to bet on the Extra option alone; it is an additional wager required while engaging in the base game.
In summary, the return rate for the base game is 50.00%, while the Extra bet presents a 53.70% return. Thus, my recommendation is that if you opt to play, your overall return will increase if you choose the Extra betting option.
Lotto Texas — Extra Bet
Catch | Average Win |
Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
6 | $0 | 1 | 0.00000004 | 0.000000 |
5 | $10,000.00 | 288 | 0.00001115 | 0.111510 |
4 | $100.00 | 16,920 | 0.00065512 | 0.065512 |
3 | $10.00 | 345,920 | 0.01339365 | 0.133936 |
2 | $2.00 | 2,918,700 | 0.11300892 | 0.226018 |
1 | $0 | 10,273,824 | 0.39779140 | 0.000000 |
0 | $0 | 12,271,512 | 0.47513972 | 0.000000 |
Total | 25,827,165 | 1.00000000 | 0.536977 |
The probability of any win is 12.71%.
It’s a $1 game featuring drawings every Monday and Thursday, where players must match four White Balls drawn from 1 to 35 and a Bonus Ball from a separate set of 35 balls. Winning combinations include matching only the Bonus Ball or at least three of the White Balls.
Texas Two Step
The Texas Two Step According to the Texas Lottery Commission (Title 16.9.401.D.rule 401.302), should the jackpot remain unclaimed, the funds will carry over to the ensuing draw, with a jackpot reset threshold set at $200,000.
According to the The next table illustrates average winnings for each prize level, along with the respective probabilities and contributions to the total payout. The next table provides insights into winning probabilities, average payouts, and contributions to the returns based on all possible winning scenarios, assuming there is at least one winner of the jackpot.
- Catch 4 with Bonus Ball: 23.78%
- Catch 4 without Bonus Ball: 2.79%
- Catch 3 with Bonus Ball: 0.34%
- Catch 3 without Bonus Ball: 4.6%
- Catch 2 with Bonus Ball: 3.04%
- Catch 1 with Bonus Ball: Fixed prize of $7
- Catch 0 with Bonus Ball: Fixed prize of $5
Texas Triple Chance represents a game based on selecting 10 numbers out of 55. While the lottery draws ten numbers, players only select seven. A $2 wager grants three plays. Drawings occur once daily at 10:12 PM, excluding Sundays.
The following table outlines the winnings for players matching three or more numbers. The returns are calculated by multiplying the payout by the probability and a factor of 3/2, as participants receive three tickets for every $2 bet. The bottom right corner showcases a return rate of 54.42%.
Texas Two Step
Catch | Bonus Ball |
Average Win |
Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 | Yes | $435,792.28 | 1 | 0.0000005 | 0.237800 |
4 | No | $1,503.81 | 34 | 0.0000186 | 0.027900 |
3 | Yes | $50.25 | 124 | 0.0000677 | 0.003400 |
3 | No | $20.00 | 4,216 | 0.0023006 | 0.046000 |
2 | Yes | $19.97 | 2,790 | 0.0015224 | 0.030400 |
2 | No | $- | 94,860 | 0.0517625 | 0.000000 |
1 | Yes | $7.00 | 17,980 | 0.0098112 | 0.068678 |
1 | No | $- | 611,320 | 0.3335807 | 0.000000 |
0 | Yes | $5.00 | 31,465 | 0.0171696 | 0.085848 |
0 | No | $- | 1,069,810 | 0.5837662 | 0.000000 |
Total | 1,832,600 | 1.0000000 | 0.500026 |
The probability of any win is 3.09%.
Texas Triple Chance
Each individual game presents a winning probability of 10.41%. The likelihood of at least one winning outcome over three games is 28.08%, assuming numbers are drawn independently.
The previous name for this game is a bit misleading. While players benefit most from hitting either all or none of their selected numbers, consolatory prizes exist for being close to either end. The game mechanic involves the player selecting 12 numbers from a possible range of 1 to 24 while the lottery draws a corresponding set. Each ticket costs $2. The lottery organizes four draws daily, barring Sundays.
Triple Chance
Catch | Win | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
7 | $100,000.00 | 120 | 0.000001 | 0.088702 |
6 | $500.00 | 9,450 | 0.000047 | 0.034926 |
5 | $25.00 | 249,480 | 0.001229 | 0.046103 |
4 | $5.00 | 2,979,900 | 0.014685 | 0.110134 |
3 | $2.00 | 17,879,400 | 0.088107 | 0.264322 |
2 | $- | 54,979,155 | 0.270930 | 0.000000 |
1 | $- | 81,450,600 | 0.401377 | 0.000000 |
0 | $- | 45,379,620 | 0.223625 | 0.000000 |
Total | 202,927,725 | 1.000000 | 0.544186 |
The table below displays the winnings associated with matching 0-4 or 9-12 numbers. The returns are represented through a combination of the payouts, probabilities, and a 1/2 multiplier to illustrate returns based on a $2 wager. The rightmost cell indicates a total return percentage of 55.98%.
All or Nothing
All or Nothing Texas is involved with both regional lotteries, Powerball and Mega Millions.
Per lottery guidelines, approximately half of the wagered amount is returned to the winning players (Source:
All or Nothing
Catch | Win | Combinations | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
12 | $250,000.00 | 1 | 0.000000 | 0.046225 |
11 | $500.00 | 144 | 0.000053 | 0.013313 |
10 | $50.00 | 4,356 | 0.001611 | 0.040271 |
9 | $10.00 | 48,400 | 0.017898 | 0.089492 |
8 | $2.00 | 245,025 | 0.090611 | 0.090611 |
7 | $- | 627,264 | 0.231963 | 0.000000 |
6 | $- | 853,776 | 0.315727 | 0.000000 |
5 | $- | 627,264 | 0.231963 | 0.000000 |
4 | $2.00 | 245,025 | 0.090611 | 0.090611 |
3 | $10.00 | 48,400 | 0.017898 | 0.089492 |
2 | $50.00 | 4,356 | 0.001611 | 0.040271 |
1 | $500.00 | 144 | 0.000053 | 0.013313 |
0 | $250,000.00 | 1 | 0.000000 | 0.046225 |
Total | $- | 2,704,156 | 1.000000 | 0.559823 |
The probability of a win per game is 22.03%.
Multi-State Games
For further details about that game, check the specific page. A Mega Millions overview will be provided shortly.
Scratch card games are straightforward; players simply scratch off a card to uncover their prizes. As of this writing, scratch cards are available at various price points of $1, $2, $3, $5, $10, $20, and $50. Texas Powerball Regulations and Texas Mega Millions Regulations ).
Please see my Powerball The lottery does not explicitly clarify what percentage of money goes back to players. However, they assist by revealing the number of tickets printed alongside winnings, making it simple to estimate the total number of losing tickets. Consequently, calculating the return percentage becomes straightforward; let's examine the
Scratchers
$1 ticket as a case study. They supply necessary details but omit how many tickets ended up being losers. We learn there are 11,104,650 total tickets printed, alongside 2,372,575 winning tickets, leading us to infer that 8,732,075 tickets must be losers.
We can now establish a return table for that particular game as follows: Spicy 9\"s The bottom right cell indicates a return rate of 60.05%. The likelihood of securing any prize is 100% minus 78.63%, yielding a 21.37% success rate.
Notably, different games do not all yield the same return. Generally speaking, for a specific ticket price point, returns are relatively consistent. As ticket prices increase, so do the return percentages. Here's a snapshot of the average returns for various games I've analyzed, categorized by ticket price, excluding trademarked titles:
Lucky 9\"s
Win | Tickets | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
$1,000 | 113 | 0.000010 | 0.010176 |
$500 | 251 | 0.000023 | 0.011302 |
$100 | 1,549 | 0.000139 | 0.013949 |
$50 | 1,866 | 0.000168 | 0.008402 |
$20 | 49,461 | 0.004454 | 0.089082 |
$10 | 135,589 | 0.012210 | 0.122101 |
$5 | 135,602 | 0.012211 | 0.061056 |
$3 | 258,972 | 0.023321 | 0.069963 |
$2 | 592,353 | 0.053343 | 0.106686 |
$1 | 1,196,819 | 0.107776 | 0.107776 |
Loser | 8,732,075 | 0.786344 | 0.000000 |
Total | 11,104,650 | 1.000000 | 0.600493 |
*: Excludes games recognized by Trademark.
You might be curious at this stage as to why I'm hesitant to include Trademarked games. There’s a solid reason: I believe they diminish returns by as much as 8%! However, to give them fair credit, numerous Trademarked games offer non-cash prizes through second chance sweepstakes that require online entry to win. For example, the
Texas Scratch Card Average Returns*
Bet | Average Return |
---|---|
$1 | 60.12% |
$2 | 65.01% |
$3 | 65.93% |
$5 | 68.01% |
$10 | 71.00% |
$20 | 74.97% |
$50 | 77.81% |
offers a return of 64.56%, which is 3.45% below the average for a $5 ticket from active non-trademarked games as of now. Nevertheless, players can win vacations to events like the World Series or other 'Merchandise Prize Packs' during these second-chance drawings, which appear to be exclusive to trademarked games and not universally accessible.
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Calculator for Estimating Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales
The Texas Lottery commenced its operations on May 29, 1992. Since then, it has returned 63.1% of its ticket sales as prizes. Of the remaining funds, 27% supports educational initiatives, 9.5% covers operational costs, and 0.4% from unclaimed prizes primarily benefits Veterans. It's important to note that not all games mirror this 63.1% return rate, with actual returns fluctuating between 44% and 78%; thus, careful game selection is crucial.
One unique aspect of the Texas Lottery is that players must decide to accept either an annuity or a lump sum payment for games with a grand prize structured as an annuity right at the time of their ticket purchase. The reasoning behind asking players to make this choice remains unclear.
However, this is a big \"if\" because:
- Now, I’d like to offer some concise strategies for playing various games when decisions need to be made beyond simply selecting numbers:
- For Pick 3: Opt for straight bets that require an 'exact order' rather than box bets that offer wins in 'any order', particularly targeting totals like 0, 3, 24, or 27.
- For Daily 4: Similar to Pick 3, choose straight bets in 'exact order' rather than box bets that allow for 'any order', or focus on totals of 3 or below or 33 or above.
For Lotto Texas: Consider the Extra option, which provides a enhanced return compared to the main game.
For Scratch Cards: Generally, higher-priced cards yield better returns. Avoid games that carry trademarked names.
Lotteries
Games
Related Reading
- Lottery — General page.
- Buy Lotto Online in 2025
- Are Lottery Players Smart? Lastly, here are some overarching tips for engaging in any lottery game:
- COVID and the Lottery
- It's advisable to avoid playing altogether. State lotteries often provide dismal odds, making them one of the least favorable gambling options available.
- The Lottery (Still) Sucks!
- For games that involve number selection, I recommend using the Quick Pick method. Players who select their own numbers may find themselves more likely to share a jackpot with others who have chosen the same numbers for similar reasons.
Calculators
- Powerball calculator Below is my examination of each game.
- Mega Millions calculator This game runs four times daily (with the exception of Sundays). Both the player and the Lottery choose three digits ranging from 0 to 9, with numbers being replaced after each draw. Bets can be made for amounts of $0.50, $1, or $5, and there’s an additional 'Sum it Up' bet based on the cumulative total of the three drawn numbers.
- Pick Six calculator Players can opt for 'exact order' or 'any order' when placing their bets. While it can be more challenging to win when the numbers must match in a specified order, the payouts are higher for this choice. The winning probability and potential payout for 'any order' is influenced by whether players select three distinct numbers (like 1-2-3) or a pair (such as 1-1-2).
- SuperLotto Plus — California Lottery game.
- Calculator for Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales The table presented outlines the payouts, probability of winning, and return percentages for the three different betting options. According to the right column, the expected return stands at 50% for 'exact order' play and slightly lower at 48% for 'any order'.
External Links
- Texas Lottery — Official web site.
- Texas Lottery Regulations — The fine print of the game rules.
- Wikipedia — Page on the Texas Lottery