Mega Millions

Introduction

The Mega Millions is a collaborative lottery spanning multiple states, renowned for its exceptionally high jackpot prizes. It first launched in 1996 under the name 'The Big Game,' eventually evolving through several name changes to its current title, 'Mega Millions.' Over the years, many adjustments to the rules have been made. This document outlines the current regulations that became effective after the latest adjustments on April 5, 2025.

2025 Rules

On April 5, 2025, there was another revision to the game rules, which included the following adjustments.

• Cost of ticket increased from $2 to $5.
• The quantity of Gold balls was reduced from 25 to 24.
• 10x multiplier added to the Megaplier.
• The Megaplier has now become a standard feature instead of an optional add-on costing an additional $1.
• The initial jackpot amount has been raised significantly from $20 million to $50 million.

Here are the comprehensive new regulations, which take effect on April 5, 2025.

1. The cost of a ticket is $5.
2. Players must select five unique numbers ranging from 1 to 70 and one 'Mega Ball' from a selection of 1 to 24.
3. The Lottery will randomly select a Megaplier based on the table provided below. This Megaplier acts as a multiplier for all prizes except for the jackpot.
4. Every Tuesday and Friday at 11:00 PM Eastern time, the lottery will conduct a draw consisting of five white balls numbered from 1 to 70 and one gold Mega Ball selected from 1 to 24.
5. Winning is determined by how many of the player's chosen balls match those drawn by the Lottery, as detailed in the subsequent pay table.
6. The jackpot shall reset at $50 million.

The following chart details the prizes awarded based on the number of matching white and gold balls. These payouts are calculated prior to any application of the Megaplier.

White Balls	Gold Balls	Pays
5	1	Jackpot
5	0	$1,000,000
4	1	$10,000
4	0	$500
3	1	$200
3	0	$10
2	1	$10
1	1	$7
0	1	$5

The next table outlines the probabilities and distributions for each available Megaplier option.

Megaplier	Weight	Probability
10	1	0.03125
5	2	0.06250
4	4	0.12500
3	10	0.31250
2	15	0.46875
Total	32	1.00000

2025 Analysis

The table below represents an analysis I've conducted regarding the Megaplier. Notably, the average Megaplier shown in the lower right corner is 3.0.

Megaplier	Weight	Probability	Expected
10	1	0.03125	0.31250
5	2	0.06250	0.31250
4	4	0.12500	0.50000
3	10	0.31250	0.93750
2	15	0.46875	0.93750
Total	32	1.00000	3.00000

Presented next is a table displaying the probabilities and contributions to returns from all fixed prizes. This calculation assumes an average Megaplier of 3x. The expected return reflects the proportion of winnings relative to the $5 ticket price, with the last cell indicating that fixed prizes constitute 22.37% of the total return.

White Balls	Gold Balls	Combinations	Probability	Pays	Expected Return
5	1	1	0.0000000034	Jackpot	?
5	0	23	0.0000000792	1000000	0.047509
4	1	325	0.0000011189	10000	0.006713
4	0	7,475	0.0000257339	500	0.007720
3	1	20,800	0.0000716075	200	0.008593
3	0	478,400	0.0016469727	10	0.009882
2	1	436,800	0.0015037577	10	0.009023
1	1	3,385,200	0.0116541219	7	0.048947
0	1	8,259,888	0.0284360573	5	0.085308
2 or less	0	277,883,424	0.9566605475	0	0.000000
Total	0	290,472,336	1.0000000000		0.223695

Before factoring in aspects like annuities, taxes, and jackpot distributions, the value derived from each $100 million jackpot yields an extra 6.89% in return.

Disregarding annuity, tax implications, and jackpot splits entirely, the breakeven point for the jackpot lies at $1,127,475,660. Factoring in a reduction for a lump sum payout and the highest marginal tax rate of 37%, this breakeven figure escalates to $3,579,287,810. When considering the sharing of jackpot amounts, the game remains uncertainly profitable due to increased ticket sales and a higher number of anticipated winners as the jackpot grows.

2017 Rules

The rules saw modifications on October 28, 2017, raising the ticket price from $1 to $2, thereby making it more challenging to win the jackpot. This change was likely a strategic move to amplify the jackpot sizes amidst rising competition. Powerball Lottery Players need to select five distinct numbers within the range of 1 to 70 and one 'Mega Ball' from a group of 1 to 25.

1. The cost of a ticket is $2.
2. On every Tuesday and Friday at 11:00 PM Eastern time, the lottery draws five white balls numbered from 1 to 70 and a single gold Mega Ball from 1 to 25.
3. Rewards for players are contingent upon the number of their picked balls that align with the drawn results, as illustrated in the following table.
4. If the player opts to pay an additional $1, they can activate the Megaplier feature, except in California. When this is chosen, any secondary prizes (excluding the jackpot) will be multiplied by a factor ranging from 2 to 5, based on the probabilities listed in the accompanying table.

   Pay Table

   White Balls Match	Mega Ball Matches	Win
   5	Yes	Jackpot
   5	No	$1,000,000
   4	Yes	$10,000
   4	No	$500
   3	Yes	$200
   3	No	$10
   2	Yes	$10
   1	Yes	$4
   0	Yes	$2
   0 to 2	No	$0

5. An alternative option enables the player to purchase two tickets for the price of $3, but both will only be eligible for the jackpot.

   Megaplier

   Multiplier	Weight	Probability
   5	1	0.066667
   4	3	0.200000
   3	6	0.400000
   2	5	0.333333
   Total	15	1.000000

6. The advertised jackpot amounts are structured as a 30-year annuity, where the first installment is processed immediately at 1.5051435% of the total payout, increasing by 5% annually thereafter.
7. Instead of the annuity, the winner may select a lump sum payment, which is typically around 62.5% of the total jackpot value.
8. In California, the pay table differs as all winnings need to be distributed on a pari-mutuel basis within the state.
9. As is customary with lotteries having significant progressive jackpots, if there are multiple winners, the jackpot will be evenly divided among them.
10. In any lottery yielding large rewards, if a commonly selected set of numbers wins, such as 4-8-15-16-23-42, the prizes, including fixed amounts, may be subject to reductions.
11. Jackpot payouts are distributed as a 30-year annuity, offering annual payments that increase each year by 5%. The initial payment will equal 1.50514% of the total jackpot. Additionally, players have the option for a lump sum payout, which, as of October 16, 2018, for a $654 million jackpot, was approximately $372 million, representing 56.88% of the total prize amount. This ratio may fluctuate. Lost The subsequent table presents the probabilities and expected returns associated with all potential outcomes, provided the player did not select the Megaplier feature and assuming a jackpot size of $40 million. The return figures are calculated by multiplying the winnings, their probability, and a factor of 0.5. This calculation accounts for the $2 ticket price. The following analysis elaborates on the table.
12. Mega Millions Return Overview — Without Megaplier

Analysis

The lower right section of the preceding table indicates that a player can anticipate recovering 18.96% of their investment with a jackpot set at $40 million. For every additional $100 million added to the jackpot, the rate of return increases by 16.52%. The point of break-even, where the expected return equals the initial investment, is approximately $530,420,124. The likelihood of securing any win stands at 4.17%.

The forthcoming table elaborates on the probabilities linked to each Megaplier multiplier. The average multiplier, as shown in the rightmost cell, is 3.00.

Next, the table illustrates the probabilities and anticipated returns based on all possible outcomes assuming the player opted for the Megaplier feature with a jackpot of $40 million. The wins are depicted before applying the Megaplier. The returns are calculated by multiplying the winnings, their probabilities, the average Megaplier, and a third since the ticket cost becomes $3 when including the Megaplier. This table does not take taxes, jackpots, or shared winnings into account. Further commentary follows the table.

Megaplier Analysis

Mega Millions Return Overview — With Megaplier

As noted in the lower right section of the previous table, a player can expect to retrieve 29.10% of their money when the jackpot is priced at $40 million. The return rate rises by 11.02% for each additional $100 million added to the jackpot when the Megaplier is activated. If we disregard annuities, taxes, and jackpot splitting, the break-even point where the expected returns reach 100% sits at $224,191,728.

As the jackpot totals rise, the challenge from other players intensifies. Interestingly, purchasing tickets when the jackpot amounts to $400 million proves to offer better value than at $1 billion, as larger jackpots tend to be divided amongst a greater number of winners.

Just the Jackpot Analysis

In detail, there appears to be an exponential correlation between the jackpot amount and the number of tickets sold when the jackpot is up to 400 million. The graph below visualizes ticket sales (on the vertical axis) against jackpot amounts (on the horizontal axis).

Jackpot Competition

For jackpots exceeding 400 million, data is limited, especially for amounts nearing a billion, as demonstrated in the accompanying graph. The black line provides a logarithmic fit for the various data points.

I have incorporated these least-squares regression equations into my analysis, which could assist in determining how many others you might share a jackpot with, depending on its size. Furthermore, some online sports betting platforms accept wagers on whether a jackpot will be claimed.

Until now, all analyses have been conducted without considering the implications of annuities, taxes, and lottery shares. It is now time to factor in these considerations.

The most complex issue regarding potential dilution of value is the division of the jackpot. The following table delineates, based on jackpot size (in millions), the estimated ticket sales, the likelihood of at least one winner, the anticipated jackpot share per winner, and expected values post-division. Calculator for Estimating Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales In the provided table, observe that the maximum value in the last column occurs at $732 million for a jackpot size of 1.3 billion. A more accurate assessment of maximum possible jackpot value after splitting is $1.255 billion. Beyond this threshold, value diminishes due to heightened ticket demands, leading to an increase in winners and further divisions. For these calculations, I employ parabolic regression models for jackpots exceeding $300 million.

Other Factors

Calculating the annuity factor is straightforward. Winners can either take the annuity (as detailed in the previous rules section) or opt for a lump sum that equals a specified percentage of the jackpot, which as of October 16, 2018, was 56.88%. Most individuals prefer the lump sum option. Notably, excluding all variables aside from interest rates, choosing the lump sum is more advantageous when the interest rate exceeds 3.40%. Otherwise, the lump sum is preferable. On the date mentioned, the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 3.27%. To simplify the calculations, let's assume the winner selects the lump sum payout.

Tax calculations are quite manageable. As of this writing, the highest federal income tax rate is 37%. State taxes vary significantly, but for estimation purposes, assume an average of 8% for state and local taxes, which results in a total tax deduction of 45% for the winner.

Mega Millions Lottery - A Guide to Participation, Odds, and Tactics

Explore Premier Online Casinos Available in Your Region Treasury Bill rate Calculator for Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales

Mega Millions is a well-known lottery across multiple states, famous for its enormous jackpot prizes. It originally began in 1996 under the name 'The Big Game.' Over time, it has been rebranded as 'The Big Game Mega Millions' and eventually simplified to 'Mega Millions.' There have also been several modifications to its rules since inception. This document outlines the current rules that came into effect following a change on April 5, 2025.

On April 5, 2025, several updates to the game rules were implemented as outlined below.

Strategy

There are three ways to play, as follows:

• Normal tickets at $2 each.
• Tickets with the Megaplier at $3 each
• "Just the Jackpot\" tickets at two for $3.

The count of gold balls was reduced from 25 to 24.

The Megaplier feature is now included automatically, eliminating the need for an additional $1 fee previously required to opt-in.

The initial jackpot prize was raised dramatically from $20 million to $50 million.

Conclusion

Here are the complete and updated game rules that are active from April 5, 2025.

Lotteries

• California Lottery
• Texas Lottery
• Florida Lottery
• Easy Lotto

Games

• Powerball

Related Reading

• Lottery — General page.
• Buy Lotto Online in 2025
• Are Lottery Players Smart? Participants must select five unique numbers from 1 to 70, along with one 'Mega Ball' number from a pool of 1 to 24.
• COVID and the Lottery
• The Lottery will randomly select a Megaplier based on the accompanying table. This multiplier will apply to all winnings, excluding the jackpot itself.
• The Lottery (Still) Sucks!
• Every Tuesday and Friday at 11:00 PM Eastern Time, the Lottery will draw five white balls numbered 1 to 70, in addition to one gold Mega Ball from 1 to 24.

Calculators

• Powerball calculator Winners will be determined based on the number of matches between the drawn balls and the player's selections, following the payout structure outlined below.
• Mega Millions calculator (2017 rules) The table below illustrates the payouts based on how many white and gold balls a player successfully matches in the Lottery's draw. The winnings displayed are prior to the application of the Megaplier.
• Mega Millions calculator (2025 rules) The next table details the chance and likelihood of each possible Megaplier result.
• Pick Six calculator The subsequent table presents my breakdown of the Megaplier results, indicating an average Megaplier value of 3.0.
• SuperLotto Plus — California Lottery game.
• Calculator for Estimating Lottery Jackpot Ticket Sales The table below shows the probability and the impact on returns from fixed wins. This estimate works under the assumption of an average 3x Megaplier. The expected return showcases the ratio of winnings compared to the $5 ticket cost, revealing that fixed wins contribute 22.37% towards this expected return.

External Links

• Big Week for the Lotteries 29 Oct-2018, 2 Huge jackpots are won.
• Mega Millions -Official web site.
• Wikipedia .
• LottoReport.com Before factoring in considerations like annuities, taxes, and any potential sharing of the jackpot, the value assigned per $100 million jackpot yields an additional return of 6.89%.

Written by: Michael Shackleford