Knockout 52

Introduction

Knockout 52 is an innovative table game that will launch at FireKeepers Casino in Battle Creek, Michigan, in May 2024. It will then commence field trials at The Strat in Las Vegas, also on May 17, 2024.

This game stands out and is unlike any other. Essentially, there’s a designated layout on the table featuring the 13 ranks found in a standard deck of cards. The dealer deals one card sequentially to each position on the layout, and the game concludes when a card from the deck aligns with the next rank on the layout. If a player goes through 13, 26, or 39 cards without a match, they restart from the first position. The aim is to anticipate how many cards it will take to achieve a match, or to determine if there won’t be a match.

Rules

1. Various deck counts can be utilized. The following analysis is based on a scenario using a single standard 52-card deck.
2. The betting area will feature a grid of four rows and 13 columns, labeled from ace to king going from left to right. Each of the four rows will be recognized as a 'round.'
3. Once the betting phase concludes, the dealer will place the first card on the first round. If this card aligns with the rank on the layout (for example, an ace), this round will end, and the winning bets will be resolved.
4. If the initial card dealt is not an ace, the dealer will then deal a second card to the first round. Should this card match the next rank on the layout (in this case, a 2), the round will conclude, and winning bets will be processed.
5. This dealing sequence will proceed across the first round until a card aligns with the column header or until all 13 cards are dealt without any match.
6. In the absence of matches during the first round, the dealer will deal a 14th card into the A column in the second round. If this card is also not an ace, the dealer will continue to deal to the second round until reaching the conclusion of that round or until a match is made.
7. Should there be no match found within the first 26 cards, the dealer will continue in the same manner through the third round. If still no matches occur, the dealer will advance to the fourth and final round.
8. If the dealer completes all 52 cards without identifying any matches, the outcome will be declared as 'No Match,' and bets concerning No Match will be settled (no other winning bets can exist in this scenario).
9. All wagers are determined based on whether they correspond to the row and/or column of the initial match or if there are no matches at all.
10. There are several types of available bets:
    • First Round — The initial match occurs within the first round. Payouts are at 1 to 2.
    • Second Round — The first match is found in the second round. Payouts are at 3 to 1.
    • Third Round — The first match comes in the third round. Payouts are at 10 to 1.
    • Fourth Round — The first match emerges during the fourth round. Payouts are at 30 to 1.
    • No Match — If there are no matches throughout all four rounds, payouts are at 50 to 1.

Knockout 52 layout

Analysis

The subsequent table illustrates my findings based on a single deck of cards. Notably, the right column indicates that the optimal bet is placed in round 1, with a house edge of 3.56%.

Next, I present my analysis predicated on eight decks of cards.

The following table outlines the chances of having a match after dealing a specific number of cards or the occasion of no match for both one and eight decks.

Methodology

A randomized simulation method was employed to evaluate this game. For one deck, the simulation analyzed 4,910,000,000 games played, while for eight decks, it covered 8,899,500,000 games. I am confident that the probabilities are calculated accurately to five decimal places.

External Links

Discussion To discuss Knockout 52, feel free to join my conversation on the Wizard of Vegas forum.

Written by: Michael Shackleford