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Mega Keno

Introduction

Mega Keno is a progressive version of keno located at the Plaza Hotel in downtown Las Vegas.

Rules

  1. Tickets cost $1.50.
  2. Participants choose between 5 and 10 numbers from a selection that goes from 1 to 80.
  3. The game will then randomly select 20 numbers from the same pool.
  4. If a sufficient number of the player’s chosen numbers align with those drawn by the casino, the player stands to win.
  5. Matching all selected numbers results in winning a progressive jackpot.
  6. The pay table is shown below.
  7. The jackpot for picking 10 numbers is paid out as an annuity consisting of 11 payments spread out over 10 years, with the first payment occurring immediately.

Mega Keno Pay Table

Catch Pick 5 Pick 6 Pick 7 Pick 8 Pick 9 Pick 10
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 1 1 0 0 0 0
4 11.5 4 1.25 0 0 0
5 Jackpot 100 22 10 4 1.5
6   Jackpot 430 100 55 10
7     Jackpot 2000 425 100
8       Jackpot 7000 1000
9         Jackpot 7500
10           Jackpot

Analysis

The upcoming table illustrates the various combinations that can arise from different picks and draws.

Keno Combinations

Catch Pick 5 Pick 6 Pick 7 Pick 8 Pick 9 Pick 10
0 5,461,512 50,063,860 386,206,920 2,558,620,845 14,783,142,660 75,394,027,566
1 9,752,700 109,230,240 1,001,277,200 7,724,138,400 51,172,416,900 295,662,853,200
2 6,501,800 92,650,650 1,037,687,280 9,512,133,400 73,379,314,800 486,137,960,550
3 2,017,800 39,010,800 555,903,900 6,226,123,680 57,072,800,400 440,275,888,800
4 290,700 8,575,650 165,795,900 2,362,591,575 26,461,025,640 242,559,401,700
5 15,504 930,240 27,442,080 530,546,880 7,560,293,040 84,675,282,048
6   38,760 2,325,600 68,605,200 1,326,367,200 18,900,732,600
7     77,520 4,651,200 137,210,400 2,652,734,400
8       125,970 7,558,200 222,966,900
9         167,960 10,077,600
10           184,756

The following table details the probabilities associated with all combinations of chosen and drawn numbers.

Keno Probabilities

Catch Pick 5 Pick 6 Pick 7 Pick 8 Pick 9 Pick 10
0 0.2271842 0.1666018 0.1215743 0.0882662 0.0637478 0.0457907
1 0.4056861 0.3634947 0.3151925 0.2664641 0.2206656 0.1795714
2 0.2704574 0.3083214 0.3266541 0.3281456 0.3164261 0.2952568
3 0.0839351 0.1298195 0.1749932 0.2147862 0.2461092 0.2674024
4 0.0120923 0.0285379 0.0521910 0.0815037 0.1141052 0.1473189
5 0.0006449 0.0030956 0.0086385 0.0183026 0.0326015 0.0514277
6   0.0001290 0.0007321 0.0023667 0.0057196 0.0114794
7     0.0000244 0.0001605 0.0005917 0.0016111
8       0.0000043 0.0000326 0.0001354
9         0.0000007 0.0000061
10           0.0000001
Total 1.0000000 1.0000000 1.0000000 1.0000000 1.0000000 1.0000000

Another table outlines the expected return for every combination of picked and drawn numbers, based on a $1.50 wager. Essentially, this return is calculated by multiplying the probability by the potential win and then dividing by the initial bet amount.

Mega Keno Return

Catch Pick 5 Pick 6 Pick 7 Pick 8 Pick 9 Pick 10
0 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000
1 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000
2 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000
3 0.0559567 0.0865464 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000
4 0.0927079 0.0761011 0.0434925 0.0000000 0.0000000 0.0000000
5 0.0000000 0.2063759 0.1266981 0.1220172 0.0869373 0.0514277
6   0.0000000 0.2098620 0.1577809 0.2097171 0.0765293
7     0.0000000 0.2139402 0.1676422 0.1074095
8       0.0000000 0.1520981 0.0902796
9         0.0000000 0.0306032
10           0.0000000
Total 0.1486646 0.3690234 0.3800525 0.4937384 0.6163947 0.3562493

The concluding table reveals the fixed returns, jackpot probabilities, the return per $1,000 in the jackpot, and the breakeven jackpot amounts for various selections ranging from 5 to 10 picks. Note that the 10-year breakeven jackpot does not account for the loss of money over time due to the annuity.

Mega Keno Summary

Pick Fixed
Return		 Jackpot
Probability		 Jackpot
Return		 Breakeven
Jackpot
5 0.1486646 0.0006449 0.4299498 $1,980.08
6 0.3690234 0.0001290 0.0859900 $8,768.28
7 0.3800525 0.0000244 0.0162684 $38,107.53
8 0.4937384 0.0000043 0.0028971 $231,555.50
9 0.6163947 0.0000007 0.0004829 $1,219,982.86
10 0.3562493 0.0000001 0.0000748 $10,192,775.55

Here are the latest jackpot figures I checked as of June 13, 2023.

  • Pick 5: $1,344.17
  • Pick 6: $4,256.84
  • Pick 7: $15,446.78
  • Pick 8: $61,231.37
  • Pick 9: $152,675.30
  • Pick 10: $3,958,460.20

For instance, let's break down the return calculation for picking 5 numbers. The value of the fixed winnings is 0.148665. The jackpot value can be calculated as ($1,344.17/$1,000) × 0.4299498 = 0.577926. Thus, the overall return totals to 0.148665 + 0.577926 = 0.726590.

External Links

Official web site for Mega Keno , which shows the current jackpots.

Written by: Michael Shackleford