Flip It

Introduction

by Michael Bluejay, Correspondent on the Field

Chances are you’ve come across Flip-It: You place quarters or dollar tokens into a machine, which then uses mechanical spinners to flip the coins onto a shelf, while pusher arms nudge the stack of coins toward the edge. Winning occurs when coins tumble over the edge.

You can choose between two coin types: quarters and dollars. Both options are available at venues like Four Queens (located downtown) and Stratosphere (off the Strip). Additionally, you can find quarters at places like Golden Gate and Sahara. I've observed numerous locations with these games around the city, though I didn’t remember exactly where they were.

Sometimes coins do not flip but drop straight through the spinners onto the payout tray instead. I’ve noticed first-time players become puzzled, assuming they’re doing something wrong, especially when their coins consistently fall through. If your coin doesn’t flip, don’t hesitate to keep trying.

The Catch

Casinos generate revenue from coins that spill over the far edges, which are drawn into the machine rather than returned to players. This detail isn't immediately apparent, as the chutes for edge coins are concealed behind signs labeled 'Spill Pay Area.' These signs have arrows indicating that only the coins spilling over the central area are returned, not the ones from the sides.

Basic Strategy

Your coin gets inserted into one of four slots that are arranged in a line from left to right on the machine's front. There is generally a left slot, two middle slots, and a right slot. Coins usually land directly in front of the slot they were placed into, making the middle slots the best choice for play. This is the Essential Strategy for Flip-It. Using the side slots can result in more of your coins landing on the edge, which means you will lose those coins when they spill.

Flip-It Myths

A common misconception is that coins continuously stack higher and higher. In reality, each machine finds its own optimal depth for the stack and will revert to that level over time. For instance, one machine may hold a depth of two coins, while another may maintain five coins; every machine has its unique characteristics because they are mechanical rather than electronic devices.

Another common myth is that casinos routinely remove coins once they accumulate too high. This is not the case because the coins do not stack infinitely, and the casino profit is primarily made from coins that cascade over the sides, which are not returned to players. Although this can be inferred through careful observation, I confirmed it with an employee from the Four Queens casino in downtown Las Vegas.

Volatility

Machines that are prone to shallow stacks exhibit low volatility, providing frequent but minimal payouts. Conversely, those that stack high have greater volatility, resulting in less frequent but larger payouts. In terms of long-term expected returns, both types yield similar outcomes. I found the dollar machine at Four Queens to be the least volatile, typically maintaining a stack of only two coins, while the four-deep dollar machine at Stratosphere showed much more volatility.

Quarter machines present a higher level of volatility compared to their dollar counterparts, as the coins are smaller and tend to stack more. Quarters played in the middle slots flip to the sides more often than dollars due to their lighter weight. Consequently, you might end up losing nearly as much on quarters as you would on dollars. However, quarters do have the slight advantage of being more likely to flip into a basket (which will be explained soon), though the baskets themselves aren’t particularly valuable.

Baskets

There are small baskets located at the top of the game, and if your coin successfully flips into one, you receive the quantity of coins indicated on it (usually 10, 20, 50, or 100 coins). Some dollar machines feature 50-point baskets that move back and forth for additional thrill. Hitting one of these baskets triggers a bonus round, where the slot machine reels at the very top spin, and different combinations award a variable number of coins, with the top prize being either $2,500 or $9,999. This jackpot is often highlighted on an LED marquee, creating the illusion of a progressive jackpot, although it's actually a fixed prize being showcased.

Baskets are generally of little significance. Throughout thousands of sessions playing Flip-It, I managed to hit a basket only three times, all for the smallest payout. To further illustrate, during my six-week stay in Vegas, no one hit a 50-point basket at the Four Queens dollar machine to trigger a reel spin. I can attest to this because the reels remained stuck on the same combination throughout my entire visit (which was a losing combination, yielding zero coins for the bonus round). The game entices players to aim for the sides with higher-point baskets, but be wary—many players won't actually hit these, and the coins tossed to the sides won’t be returned when they spill. While I consider baskets to be nearly worthless, you have a better chance of hitting them on quarter machines due to their lighter weight and higher flip.

House Edge

I estimated the house edge on the dollar machine at Four Queens to be approximately 11.1%. This was based on 405 coins input, 360 coins retrieved over about an hour of gameplay while applying Basic Strategy. Although 405 rounds might seem like a small and statistically insignificant sample for most casino games, Flip-It operates differently. Just a few hundred rounds of this game cycle through most of the coins inside the machine, and even a quarter-hour of play clarifies that it’s an even-sum game, where players eventually reclaim nearly all coins inserted—except for those that spill.

Since these machines are mechanical, each one can have a different house edge. Machines that consistently flip to the center have a lower edge, while those sending more coins to the sides tend to have higher edges. Additionally, volatility levels can vary substantially among machines. Some may typically stack four levels high (high volatility), whereas others may only stack two levels high (low volatility).

I attempted a trial to gauge the house edge on a quarter machine, but quickly became frustrated with my losses and abandoned it. I discovered that quarters often flip to the sides more than dollars due to their lighter weight and unpredictable trajectories. My rough assessment suggested potential losses on quarters could easily rival those on dollars, simply due to excess coins being pushed to the edges.

Coin Counting

Unlike Blackjack players, who can enhance their basic game strategy through card counting to gain an advantage, Flip-It players have the opportunity to count coins, shifting the odds in their favor. The principle is straightforward: only play when the machine appears favorable, increasing the likelihood that coins will spill rather than stack. I tested this approach with 558 coins over several days, engaging only when I sensed the machine was primed, and ended up ahead by 9 coins. This equates to a 1.6% advantage, surpassing what card counters typically achieve in blackjack. (While Blackjack remains more lucrative since you can wager more than a dollar at a time, and profitable decks are more common than advantageous Flip-It configurations). Once, in a separate test, my advantage soared to 83% after just 24 coins. Had I adopted a more cautious approach (playing only when the machine seemed particularly favorable), I’m confident I could have exceeded a 101.6% return. However, the net amount you leave with is ultimately influenced by the advantage you hold multiplied by your total action (the dollar amount invested in the machine). For instance, playing 500 coins cautiously with a 4% advantage can yield the same profit as playing 1,000 coins more aggressively at just a 2% advantage—both resulting in a profit of $20.

To precisely assess a machine’s performance, you must first determine the typical stack depth it gravitates towards, which I’ll call its ‘level’. You can ascertain this by playing the machine for 15 to 30 minutes, or by closely observing someone else during gameplay. Once you understand the machine's level, a straightforward +/- counting system can be employed. Focus solely on the middle coins, avoiding those on the sides:

-1	Identify every space and level where the stack is less than the machine's level. For example, if the machine is typically three levels deep and there exists a spot that's only two levels high, that means one coin is absent, marking a count of -1. Should there be a spot at just one level deep, count it as -2. Record every spot of deficiency in this manner.
-1	Count every half-coin space and level where a gap of about half a coin's size is noticeable. If the coins are not tightly packed together, allowing for visibility through to the shelf, and the gap occupies about half a coin's size in square inches, register -1 for each level represented. For example, if you have a three-level machine with four half-coin gaps, your total count would be 4 x -3 = -12.
+1	Consider every space and level where the stack exceeds the established level. For example, if it’s a three-level machine, count any coins present on the fourth level as +1.
+1	Each coin that is precariously positioned over the ledge by at least one-third of its size should also be counted.

If you sum up all these aspects, you'll gain a general sense of whether you have an edge or not. When you find yourself with a positive count, this is the time to engage with the machine. Conversely, if the count is negative, it's best to steer clear. Should you choose to play when the count is in your favor and come out victorious, make sure to reassess the machine. If it still reflects a positive count, you can keep playing. Unlike in blackjack, where supervisors monitor player behavior closely, here you can back-count and join in when the count rises; however, you need to wait for your turn, as only one individual can use the machine at a time. So, it really is a matter of hoping the current player finishes up when you want to jump back in.

My time at the Four Queens turned out to be quite memorable. After spending some time at one of the machines, I decided to step away and let a young woman, who had been eagerly observing my game, take a turn. Once she played it for a bit, she gave it back to me in fairly the same state as before, still seeming interested in my play despite having finished. Shortly thereafter, I hit a substantial win, which caused the machine’s count to take a significant downturn. Observing this, she nervously inquired, \"Can I take a turn now?\" Happily, I handed over the now negative machine to her, allowing her to set it back up for my next go.

To summarize, although there's a possibility to play Flip-It in a way that gives you an advantage, sustaining a viable income from it is a different story. Unless you can manage your expenses with only a few dollars each day, it might not be feasible.

Casino Player Magazine

In the December 2001 edition of Casino Player, the executive editor featured a piece discussing her loss of $240 from playing Flip-It. I found it hard to believe that someone could perform so poorly on a game of Flip-It as to rack up such a loss when playing for quarters. That's equivalent to losing 960 coins! To achieve that level of loss, you'd have to play for at least two solid hours while losing every single coin! Moreover, I had always theorized that with the right strategy, Flip-It could actually yield profits. This led me to challenge the editor's bold claim that \"You simply can't win on this machine.\" I was determined to prove that it’s possible to win at Flip-It.

Miscellaneous

Unfortunately, Flip-It doesn't accept slot club cards. It should, considering that the house edge (10%) is way higher than the edge on a typical slot machine.

Most machines carry a notice stating, \"The game is over 35 seconds after the last coin is played. Coins that fall after this time will not be returned to the player.\" Therefore, if a cluster of coins is wobbling and ready to spill over while you’re patiently waiting for them to drop, there’s a chance you might miss out on them. But don’t fret; 35 seconds is longer than it may appear. On timing it, I discovered it took 20 pushes of the arm to reach that 35-second mark. So, while I was waiting for the coins to tumble, I made it a point not to let myself go more than 15 pushes without playing my next coin.

I've delved deeper into Flip-It than one might ever desire. Honestly, I'm torn about what wasted more of my precious time: attempting to conquer a trivial casino game for a meager reward, or penning a lengthy article outlining my findings. Perhaps that explains my struggles in the dating scene.

Michael Bluejay hosts several websites that delve into various topics, including VegasClick and the Crazy World of Michael Bluejay .

Written by: Michael Shackleford