Expectations for the Dice Setter

Disclaimer

One of the most contentious discussions among skilled gamblers revolves around whether it's feasible to control the outcome of the dice in craps. Personally, I remain doubtful. While I don’t dismiss the idea entirely, I'm not fully persuaded. Interestingly, many casinos are open to the idea. If I owned a casino, I would likely allow it as well because I believe the number of people who can actually affect the dice, if any, is far outnumbered by those who mistakenly think they can. However, I do respect the views of certain individuals, such as Stanford Wong, who learned under Golden Touch Craps. The evidence I've compiled supports this discussion. Nevertheless, the rest of this page approaches the topic from a hypothetical standpoint that assumes the dice can be controlled. Its aim is to assess the player's advantage based on skill level and suggest the optimal dice configurations. craps appendix 3 Even the most zealous advocates of dice control acknowledge that a large majority of throws, even from skilled shooters, tend to be random. Yet, even a small fraction of accurately thrown dice can counteract the house edge. So, what transpires during these successful throws? There are two distinct groups of shooters. Both groups aim to position the dice in a particular manner, striving to keep them aligned and rotating uniformly, almost as if they're stuck together. Once the dice leave the shooter's grip, two primary issues can occur, which distinguish the two shooter types.

How Dice Control Allegedly Works

The first category I will refer to as the 'correlation shooter.' The correlation shooter does not outperform a random shooter in maintaining dice alignment. However, when the dice do remain aligned, their rotations are interrelated. For a random shooter, if the dice do remain aligned, there's a 25% chance that they will land with the same faces up as when they were in hand. The correlation shooter aims to boost this likelihood above 25% by minimizing the risk of a double-pitch throw. A double-pitch occurs when both dice stay aligned, but one rotates 180 degrees more than the other. In contrast, a single-pitch results when both dice are aligned but one rotates 90 degrees more or less than the other. My assumptions for this analysis are based on careful observations.

The second category I will term the 'axis shooter.' This type not only keeps the dice correlated when they remain aligned, but they also manage to maintain that alignment more frequently than the expected 44.44% typically seen with random shooters. Wong on Dice Stanford Wong notes in his book 'Wong on Dice' that most careful shooters he's observed do not achieve superior alignment compared to random benchmarks but attain influence through correlation. My trust in Wong informs the tables that follow, which are grounded in the assumption of correlation shooting exclusively.

There are 84 unique configurations in which the dice can be set. For the analysis on this page, I evaluated all 84 configurations and identified the most effective one for each type of bet. The only sets deemed optimal for the analyzed bets are Hard Ways set #1 and Sevens set #1. Other configurations may be equally beneficial under certain conditions or suited for bets that aren't recommended due to better available options.

This is the premier set of dice configurations, recognized as the most effective, or tied for the most effective, for achieving any point prior to rolling a 7.

Dice Settings

This configuration is on par with Hard Ways set #1 for rolling on points of 4, 5, 9, and 10. It is also the top choice for a come-out roll when placing a don't pass bet.

Skill Factor

The table below illustrates the player's advantage on pass line bets, factoring in 3-4-5X odds, segmented by skill factor. I calculated the house edge in two distinct manners. One column represents the house edge when the shooter consistently employs the Hard Way set (HW#1), even during come-out rolls. The other column details the house edge when the shooter uses the Seven set #1 on come-out rolls and the Hard Way set #1 for all other rolls. The reason for specifying the house edge for the Hard Way set alone is that many shooters also place come bets, which would result in losses during a seven on the come-out roll. I've observed certain so-called skilled shooters utilizing the Hard Way set for come-out rolls, even without any come bets, likely for ease of tracking.

Rolls to Sevens Ratio

The following table showcases the player's advantage regarding don't pass line bets, also with 3-4-5X odds, classified by skill factor. Similar to the previous table, I evaluated the house edge in two ways. The first applies when the shooter employs the Seven set #2 for every roll. The second considers the use of Hard Way set #2 for come-out rolls and Seven set #2 for all subsequent rolls. Comparing this to the preceding table reveals that the advantage for the pass bet is more significant at a skill factor of 0.01 or higher, making this table of limited practical relevance.

Pass Line with 3-4-5X Odds

The next table outlines the house edge for placing bets on the 5, 6, 8, and 9, as well as buying the 4 and 10, with an understanding that the commission is always applicable when buying. This table indicates that the most considerable advantages lie in betting on the 6 and 8. Should a shooter consistently employ the Hard Way set #1 on the pass line and achieve a skill factor of 0.17 or greater, their advantage would exceed that of the pass line bet with 3-4-5X odds when placing bets on the 6 and 8.

Don't Pass Line with Laying 3-4-5X Odds

Initially, I believed that the advantages tied to hop bets would surpass those associated with pass bets with odds. However, for the most part, this is not the case. The sole exception arises if your skill factor reaches at least 12% while throwing at tables within the UK or Australia, where the payouts for easy hops are 16 to 1 and 33 to 1 for hard hops.

Place and Buy Bets

According to the regulations in the UK and Australia, my recommendation for setting up hop bets is to select any configuration and then place hop bets on each of the different combinations visible on the adjacent faces. For instance, using Hard Ways set #1, you would place bets on 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, and 5-5. With Sevens Set #1, you'd bet on 1-6 and 2-5.

Hop Bets

Experience the Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution!

An explanation on how the house edge for each wager is calculated

Links

Books:

• Wong on Dice , by Stanford Wong.
• analyzed on both a per-wager and per-roll basis , by Frank Scoblete.
• Get the Edge at Craps , by Sharpshooter.

Personal lessons:

• Golden Touch Craps
• DiceSetter.com
• The Dice Coach

Internal Links

• Outcomes from two experiments examining proficient dice throwing. , in brief.
• The house edge of all the major bets The player's advantage, presuming they can affect the dice's behavior.
• Dice Control Experiments. Exploration of alternative betting rules such as the Fire Bet, Crapless Craps, and Card Craps.
• -6.667% Understanding how craps is played in California using a deck of cards.
• -0.833% Overview of the card-based craps game found at Viejas casino in San Diego.
• -9.583% The likelihood of a shooter continuing through 1 to 200 rolls before hitting a seven-out.
• -6.667% Consult the Wizard. Check out the craps inquiries I've responded to regarding:
• -3.750% — The maximum odds bet permitted at different casinos.
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