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Dice Setting

Introduction

A question that often comes my way, particularly regarding craps, is whether the practice of dice setting truly works. Until now, I have publicly maintained that I haven't seen enough evidence to take a stance. However, I have been privately skeptical. Yet in May 2004, I learned that Stanford Wong, whom I hold in high esteem, participated in a four-day seminar focused on dice setting. This experience seems to have shifted his viewpoint, leading him to give what can be viewed as a supportive endorsement. I subsequently had a chance encounter with him at a social event, where I inquired about his newfound perspective. It was clear that he believes some individuals have the ability to influence the outcome of the dice, although he also noted that mastering this skill is extremely difficult and not something many have achieved.

Beau Parker Experiment

Wong's insights motivated me to take the idea of dice setting more earnestly. I had previously reached out to Frank Scoblete and Larry Edell regarding the possibility of observing skilled dice setters in action. Both expressed their willingness to assist, but scheduling conflicts ultimately impeded our plans. At the time, I also resided within a short distance, about a mile, from a prominent dice coach, which further eliminated excuses for not pursuing this experiment. After several attempts to coordinate, we finally managed to arrange a meeting on July 22 with three other dice setters at the Bellagio. Beau Parker Before we began, Beau clarified that while dice setters cannot completely control every roll, they can sway the results toward certain numbers. At a table with 3-4-5x odds, the house edge is a low 0.374%, so even a modest influence on the dice can tilt the odds in a player's favor. However, he noted that demonstrating this influence might require thousands of rolls to be evident amidst the inherent randomness of the game. As a result, we both concurred that a single session likely wouldn’t yield definitive results.

In discussions about potential cheating in online casinos, I emphasize that the correct approach to evaluating a non-random game starts with forming a hypothesis, followed by data collection and then statistical analysis to see how well the data aligns with the hypothesis. Therefore, I asked Beau what specific elements I should focus on. He recommended monitoring the initial roll to track successful results of 7s and 11s, while also checking all other outcomes for anything but a 7. Below are the detailed findings, with each initial roll marking a new entry.

The summary table presents the outcomes of the rolls conducted. While the sample size is too limited for meaningful statistical analysis, a visual inspection suggests that the early results align closely with what would be expected in a game governed by chance. Thus, it’s evident that further testing is necessary and is being planned.

Parker Experiment Results

Date Casino Shooter Rolls
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Beau 7
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Beau 2
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Beau 6,8,6
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Beau 8,7
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Debbie 11
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Debbie 2
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Debbie 6,10,5,9,3,3,12,5,9,5,8,6
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Debbie 11
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Debbie 10,7
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Pablo 7
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Pablo 7
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Pablo 5,7
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Michael 10,7
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Beau 4,7
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Debbie 6,3,4,7
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Pablo 9,2,4,6,8,4,2,10,5,8,5,5,11,8,6,2,8,7
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Michael 11
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Michael 7
July 22, 2004 Bellagio Michael 4,6,7
July 22, 2004 Westin Beau 6,7
July 22, 2004 Westin Debbie 8,11,6,6,9,4,10,6,6,7
July 22, 2004 Westin Michael 6,6
July 22, 2004 Westin Michael 5,4,5
July 22, 2004 Westin Michael 4,5,12,4
July 22, 2004 Westin Michael 9,7
July 22, 2004 Westin Beau 7
July 22, 2004 Westin Beau 7
July 22, 2004 Westin Beau 9,6,5,8,9
July 22, 2004 Westin Beau 6,11,4,3,7
July 22, 2004 Westin Debbie 7
July 22, 2004 Westin Debbie 5,6,3,11,6,6,5
July 22, 2004 Westin Debbie 12
July 22, 2004 Westin Debbie 11
July 22, 2004 Westin Debbie 5,9,8,4,8,11,5
July 22, 2004 Westin Debbie 7
July 22, 2004 Westin Debbie 6,7
July 22, 2004 Westin Michael 10,7

For additional insights on dice setting or to enroll in professional lessons, please visit Beau Parker's resources.

Parker Experiment Summary

Event Number
Come out rolls 37
Come out wins (7 or 11) 11
Expected come out wins (7 or 11) 8.22
Non-come out rolls 79
Non-come out win (non-7) 65
Expected non-come out win (non-7) 65.83

In August 2004, a lively discussion unfolded on Stanford Wong's website about the techniques of dice setting. This dialogue could be found in the members-only Green Chip section dedicated to craps. A professional gambler there issued a challenge to Wong, proposing a wager on whether precision shooters could roll fewer than 79.5 sevens in a total of 500 dice rolls. The average expected in a random scenario would be 83.33. The likelihood of rolling 79 or fewer sevens in 500 random attempts is calculated at 32.66%. dicecoach.com .

Stanford Wong Experiment

I was invited to oversee the event, but unfortunately, I was traveling abroad at the time. Nevertheless, I placed an $1800 bet on the over with a well-known gambling writer. Details about the event's timing and location were kept very confidential and not disclosed to the public. The contenders included Wong himself and a participant known only as 'Little Joe.' According to Wong, the experiment was successful, and there were no disputes or claims of dead rolls from either side present at the event. The results tabulated by shooter are displayed in the following table. bj21.com Kudos to Wong for securing victory with five additional sevens to spare. The chance of rolling 74 or fewer sevens out of 500 random rolls is only 14.41%.

An explanation of how the house edge is calculated for each type of bet

Wong Experiment Results

Shooter Total Rolls Total Sevens Percent Sevens
Wong 278 45 16.19%
Little Joe 222 29 13.06%
Total 500 74 14.80%

evaluated both per individual bet and per dice roll

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