Caribbean Stud Poker

Rules

1. Player makes an ante wager plus an optional $1 progressive side bet
2. In this game, both the player and the dealer each receive five cards. All cards are dealt face down, except for one card which the dealer shows. Players can look at their own cards, but they must keep this information private.
3. Player must fold or raise.
4. If a player chooses to fold, they lose their cards along with their ante wager, and any additional side bets they may have placed.
5. When a player opts to raise, they must make a wager that is twice the amount of their ante.
6. The dealer will then reveal their other four cards.
7. To qualify, the dealer must possess at least an ace and a king. The lowest qualifying hand being ace, king, 4, 3, 2, and a non-qualifying hand can be as low as ace, queen, jack, 10, 9. If the dealer doesn’t qualify, the player wins their ante bet, and the raise bet is a push.
8. If the dealer qualifies and has a better hand than the player, both the ante and the raise bets will be lost.
9. If the dealer qualifies but has a lower hand than the player, the ante pays at even odds while the raise payout is determined by the pay table, which is detailed below.
10. In the event of a tie between the player and the dealer, both the ante and raise bets are considered pushes.
11. The progressive side bet payout is determined solely by the value of the player's poker hand. Different pay tables may be encountered.

House Edge

The following table outlines all possible outcomes based on the U.S. pay table, assuming optimal play strategies are followed by the player.

The bottom right cell of the table indicates a house edge of 5.224% . It's important to note that this figure may make Caribbean Stud seem like a less favorable option than it truly is. The house edge is generally described as the projected loss on the initial wager. In Caribbean Stud Poker, an optimally playing player will raise 52.23% of the time, averaging an overall wager of 2.045 units. For the purpose of comparing different games, I prefer to reference the element of risk , which reflects the expected loss in proportion to the average wager—resulting in 5.224% divided by 2.045, yielding 2.555%. The standard deviation with respect to the Ante bet is 2.24.

Strategy

Mastering the optimal strategy in Caribbean Stud is quite complex, and it's likely no one has it perfected. However, we can offer two broad rules that apply to most scenarios.

1. Always raise with a pair or higher.
2. Players should always fold if their hand is less than the dealer's qualifying hand (ace/king).

The ace/king hands can be particularly challenging. Generally, it is beneficial if the three unpaired cards are high or if the dealer's visible card is a jack or lower and corresponds to one of the player's cards, making it less probable for the dealer to form a pair. I have devised the following strategy which results in a house edge of 5.225%, only slightly above the optimal threshold. If you’re looking for more refined strategies, I do provide the Caribbean Stud optimal strategy .

The Wizard's Caribbean Stud Poker Strategy

Always increase your bet with a pair or a stronger hand; fold if your best is below an ace/king. Additionally, raise on an ace/king hand if any of the subsequent conditions are met.

1. Raise if the dealer's up card is between two and queen and it matches one of your cards.
2. Raise if the dealer’s card shows an ace or king, and your hand includes a queen or jack.
3. Raise if the dealer doesn't match any of your ranks and you have a queen while the dealer's card is below your fourth highest card.

Below are descriptions of various strategies. The 'total loss' refers to the overall losses across all combinations, totaling 19,933,230,517,200 possible hands. house edge , and the element of risk .

Alternate Rules

In regions outside the U.S., there exist different pay tables, especially online. Below are some return tables for several available alternative pay tables, maintaining the same strategic approach as the one in the U.S.

Probability

Return features a Live Dealer game with a side bet called 5+1, which is based on the total poker value from the combination of the player's five cards and the dealer's shown card. The following table details the pay table as well as my analysis, which reveals a house edge of 8.56%.

The probabilities of six-card poker as referenced in my Dealer doesn't qualify Push

Fold

In Caribbean Stud Poker, players can place a $1 side bet that pays out for hands of a flush or stronger. The exact payout structure may differ, but it's common to see a progressive jackpot that grants a full meter payout for a royal flush and 10% for a straight flush. If by chance two players end up with a royal flush in the same hand, the first player to the dealer's right wins the whole jackpot, and the second player will receive a reseeded jackpot, which typically starts at $10,000. The pots are paid from right to left by the dealer. Similarly, if two players get a straight flush at the same time, the one closest to the dealer's right gets 10% of the meter, followed by the second receiving 10% of what remains after the first payout. It has been shared with me (though I can't confirm) that there was an instance where one player had a royal flush and another held a straight flush in the same situation—the player with the royal flush, being nearer to the dealer's right, secured the entire jackpot amount. Afterward, the pot was reset to $10,000 and the straight flush holder received only 10% of what was left, totaling $1,000.

While the return you might expect to get can fluctuate based on the jackpot size, this side bet is generally considered a poor choice most of the time. The standard average house edge is around 26.46%.

A Casino Niagara manager friendly explained the mechanics of the jackpot meter. For each dollar wagered, 71 cents goes towards the jackpot, while the casino retains 29 cents. In a Connecticut casino, it was mentioned that the contribution rate there was only 65%. These rates can differ significantly depending on location. All payment on these jackpots is made directly from the meter. Each time someone hits a royal flush, the house adds $10,000 (called the 'seed') to the next jackpot. The edge is slightly lower than the house cut per bet since the casino must contribute the initial seed when a jackpot payout occurs after a win. For instance, at Casino Niagara, the house can expect to earn about 18.84 times more from the 29% cut than what it pays to seed new jackpots.

The ensuing two tables illustrate 11 different side bet pay tables I have come across or learned about. The pay table number along with the contents of the pay table is available in the upper section. The third row from the bottom indicates how much the flat wins contribute towards the return. The second last row shows the contribution from progressive wins towards each $10,000 in the meter. The last row represents the break-even point or the minimum meter value which is needed for the return to reach 100%.

You can find instances of the aforementioned pay tables in various locations.

1. 50 to 1
2. Player wins with straight flush
3. 50 to 1
4. Player wins with four of a kind
5. 20 to 1
6. Player wins with full house
7. 7 to 1
8. Player wins with flush
9. 5 to 1
10. Player wins with straight
11. 4 to 1
12. Player wins with three of a kind
13. 3 to 1
14. Player wins with two pair
15. 2 to 1
16. Crown Casino in Melbourne, Australia
17. ?
18. Player wins with pair or less
19. 1 to 1
20. Casino Bregenz, Austria, where the game is referred to as Tropical Stud Poker.

Dealer doesn\"t qualify Push follows pay table 7 but additionally rewards $50 for a 'dead man's hand' comprised of AA88x, where x can be any other card. For there to be no house edge on the side bet in this game, the meter would have to reach $149,389.47. For a minimum $5 game, the meter should be at $238,716.85, and for a $10 game, it would need to be $328,044.23.

Fold

This represents a $5 'red light' progressive side bet paying out $1,000,000 for a royal flush in spades, utilizing the five-card hand of the player. For further rules and detailed analysis, please refer to my dedicated page on the -1 .

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I’ve been frequently asked if players can gain an edge by exchanging information with one another. Even though this practice is prohibited in traditional casinos, it's a possibility in multi-player online platforms where players can communicate easily via phone. However, temper your expectations. According to the research paper 'An Analysis of Caribbean Stud Poker' authored by Peter Griffin and John M. Gwynn Jr. found in the book Dealer wins , in an ideal circumstance with seven players collaborating, it would narrow down the dealer’s unknown cards to just 16 potential cards. By using a computer to analyze the 1,820 different 4-card combinations possible from those 16 cards, a player might gain an edge of 2.3%. In a game with six players, the house would still retain a 0.4% advantage. Another article on this topic by Scott McIntosh on Review Poker Rooms also examines this issue and reaches comparable conclusions.

Sneaking glances at other players' cards can minimally reduce the house's edge. If you're holding a close ace/king hand, it would be beneficial to observe if the other players’ cards match the dealer's visible card. The more matches there are, the more likely it is that you should raise your bet. While the internet could serve as an ideal environment for sharing information at a multiplayer table, the maximum number of seats I've seen is just three.

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When a player places a bet on behalf of the dealer, most casinos allow the player to announce the tip as long as they raise their own bet. This can be an advantageous strategy for players who decide to raise with hands that are borderline. Below is the strategy for managing the dealer's tip.

• With a pair of fives or lower, always call (unless you decide to fold).
• For a pair of sixes, call unless all three singleton cards are sevens or higher.
• For a pair of sevens, raise—except if all three singleton cards are six or lower.
• If you have a pair of eights or higher, always raise.

Should a player adhere to the strategy for both hands while tipping, it would create an advantage of roughly 50%! This strategy hints at potential collusion between players and the dealer.

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Before engaging for real stakes, give my free Total -0.052327

5+1 Bonus

• Evolution Gaming 5+1 Bonus : It includes a guideline depicting when to raise with an ace/king.
• Event Pays more about Caribbean Stud Poker shared in my Ask the Wizard column.
• Combinations — This is a variation allowing the player to exchange a card.
• Probability — A variation that includes numerous additional options.
• Return — Includes more proposition bets apart from the standard $1 progressive.

Royal flush

• Straight flush of this page (numerous updates have been implemented since the original translation).

Four of a kind Full house