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Safe Bet for Blackjack

Introduction

The Safe Bet is an additional wager available in Dragonfish's Jackpot blackjack game; it provides a payout of 3 to 2 if the player's initial two cards form a hard total between 12 and 16, consisting of two distinct ranks.

Rules

This side wager relies solely on the player's first two cards. It pays 3 to 2 if the player ends up with a 'stiff' total between 12 and 16 that contains no aces and cannot be split.

In the Dragonfish game I encountered, the action takes place with four decks.

Analysis

The table below presents my evaluation of the Safe Bet with an assumption of four decks used. The lowest right cell indicates a house edge of 7.84%.

Safe Bet — Four Decks

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Win 1.5 7,936 0.368636 0.552954
Lose -1 13,592 0.631364 -0.631364
Total   21,528 1.000000 -0.078410

The subsequent pay table highlights the house edge across varying numbers of decks.

House Edge Table

Decks House Edge
1 6.49%
2 7.39%
4 7.84%
5 7.93%
6 7.99%
8 8.06%