Raise the Roof

Introduction

Raise the Roof is a side bet in blackjack that pays out based on the dealer's bust card; it offers better payouts for lower cards, and players may increase their side bet after seeing the dealer's upcard.

As of June 13, 2017, Raise the Roof can be played at Tortoise Rock in California and select casinos in the Czech Republic.

Rules

1. This game follows traditional blackjack rules, which I assume the reader is already familiar with.
2. The Raise the Roof side bet is influenced solely by the number of decks used, whether the dealer takes a hit or stands on a soft 17, and the payout structure applied.
3. When placing a blackjack bet, the player can choose to also make the Raise the Roof side bet.
4. The dealer will distribute two cards to each player and two cards for themselves, with one card facing up and one facing down, consistent with standard practice.
5. If the dealer has blackjack, the Raise the Roof bet automatically loses.
6. However, if the dealer does not have blackjack, players may opt to increase their Raise the Roof bet by an amount ranging from 1x to 5x their original wager.
7. Players will then proceed to play their blackjack hands as they normally would. Even if a player busts, their Raise the Roof wagers remain active.
8. The dealer will follow through with their hand. If their total falls between 17 and 21, all Raise the Roof bets, both initial and any increases, will lose.
9. Should the dealer bust, and the player did not raise their Raise the Roof bet, the original Raise the Roof wager will result in a 1-to-1 payout.
10. If the dealer busts and the player has increased their Raise the Roof bet, both the original wager and the additional amount will be paid out according to one of the pre-established payout tables.
11. The winnings for a hand totaling 4-5-6-7 pertain to the dealer's entire hand; the order of cards does not matter, but no extra cards can be present. For instance, a 4-5-6-A-7 would not qualify because of the ace.

There are six different payout tables that casino management can choose from for the Raise the Roof side bet, detailed in the table below. Tables 1 and 2 apply to six- and eight-deck games where the dealer hits on a soft 17; Tables 3 and 4 apply to the same deck sizes where the dealer stands on a soft 17; Tables 5 and 6 are for two-deck games in which the dealer hits on a soft 17. All payouts are given on a 'to one' basis.

Analysis

To evaluate the side bet, I needed to ascertain the probabilities of all possible outcomes concerning the dealer's hand. The subsequent three tables contain supplementary information that may be beneficial for the analysis of this side bet.

The table below displays the raw probabilities associated with the dealer's hand for two decks, where the dealer must hit a soft 17.

The table below presents raw dealer probabilities for scenarios involving six decks where the dealer hits a soft 17.

The following table reveals the raw probabilities for a six-deck setup where the dealer stands on a soft 17.

The next table provides data for two decks when the dealer hits on a soft 17.

The next trio of tables looks at post-peek outcomes that focus specifically on relevant events for the Raise the Roof side bet, on the assumption that the dealer has already checked for blackjack. These probabilities are crucial for determining whether players should make incremental increases (1x), substantial raises (5x), or no increase at all.

The subsequent table outlines the dealer probabilities when using six decks, with the dealer hitting on a soft 17.

The next table refers to six decks where the dealer stands on a soft 17.

The next table details the outcomes for two decks with a dealer who hits on a soft 17.

The next six tables present expected returns for each viable option based on the dealer's up card according to the previous six pay tables. The only valid plays are:

• S = Stand
• 1x = An increase that matches 1x the Raise the Roof wager.
• 5x = An increase that equals 5x the Raise the Roof wager.

The following table consolidates the house edge and risk factor under the various rule sets. Remember that the house edge reflects the expected loss ratio for players in relation to their initial bets, while the Element of Risk refers to the expected loss ratio based on the total average bet (including raises).

Strategy

Interestingly, the strategy proves consistent across all payout tables and rule sets. The table below indicates the optimal mathematical action for every possible dealer up card. Here’s a recap of the abbreviations used: S=Stand, 1x=1x Raise, 5x=5x Raise.

Written by: Michael Shackleford