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Bust: A Dealer Busting Hand Bet

Introduction

During visits to casinos in Spain, Liechtenstein, Switzerland, and Austria, I observed a side bet available on the dealer busting, which pays out 5 to 2 if the dealer exceeds 21. According to the rules outlined by the Swiss Casinos Zurich, this wager is simply called \"Bust.\"

The table below outlines the likelihood of the dealer busting based on the number of decks and whether they're required to hit or stand on a soft 17. I also operate under the assumption that the dealer fully completes their hand, regardless of whether all players at the table bust.

Probability of Dealer Busting

Decks Stand
Soft 17
Hit
Soft 17
1 0.283585 0.287485
2 0.282582 0.286446
4 0.282086 0.285931
6 0.281921 0.285760
8 0.281839 0.285675

The subsequent table depicts the expected value for players with a win condition of 5 to 2. For instance, in a six-deck setting where the dealer stands on a soft 17, typical in European casinos, players can anticipate a loss of about 1.3% on each wager placed. This positions it among the most promising side bets I've encountered. It’s worth noting that when the dealer hits on a soft 17, the bet provides an advantageous scenario for players with six or fewer decks.

Player Expected Value

Decks Stand
Soft 17
Hit
Soft 17
1 -0.007451 0.006198
2 -0.010962 0.002561
4 -0.012699 0.000759
6 -0.013275 0.000161
8 -0.013563 -0.000138