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Bet the Set Progressive

Introduction

Bet the Set Progressive

I first encountered this variation of Bet the Set on April 19, 2013, at the Red Rock Casino in Las Vegas, which was played with a six-deck setup. A player wins this bet if their initial two cards are a pair, with even larger rewards if they're suited. Unlike traditional Bet the Set rules, having a pair allows the player the chance to earn big payouts if the dealer also reveals a pair of the same value.

Should a player achieve a colored four-of-a-kind, they not only receive a payout of 250 to 1 but also claim a progressive jackpot. Furthermore, if another player hits a colored four-of-a-kind, envy bonuses are awarded to all other participants who placed the Bet the Set wager, with a minimum bet of $1 required to qualify for these jackpots and envy bonuses.

Rules

  1. The following examination is based on six decks, although any number could be applicable.
  2. If the initial four cards, including those of both the player and dealer, create a colored four-of-a-kind, the player's stake will yield a payout of 250 to 1, along with a portion of the progressive jackpot.
  3. If the four cards form a combination of four-of-a-kind with both red and black hands, the player's wager pays out 100 to 1.
  4. In another scenario, if the player holds a suited pair, their wager will result in a payout of 20 to 1.
  5. Conversely, if the player possesses a non-suited pair, the payout will be 5 to 1.
  6. If the player has two cards of differing ranks, it results in a loss.
  7. Whenever a player achieves a colored four-of-a-kind, every other individual at the table who has made the Bet the Set wager receives an envy bonus of $50.
 

Rack card. Click on any of the images for a larger view.

Analysis

The table below displays the odds for a game played with six decks, excluding the potential jackpot and envy bonuses. The bottom right cell indicates a house edge of 27.74%.

Bet the Set — Progressive — Six Decks

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Colored four of a kind 250 77,220 0.000033 0.008308
Four of a kind 100 751,608 0.000323 0.032346
Suited pair 20 37,177,920 0.016000 0.319993
Pair 5 133,840,512 0.057599 0.287993
Loser -1 2,151,826,560 0.926045 -0.926045
Total   2,323,673,820 1.000000 -0.277405

The subsequent table calculates the expected value for every $1,000 in the meter, taking into account each additional player based on their betting amount. Keep in mind that progressive and envy bonuses are fixed amounts, which means that the benefit diminishes with larger bets.

Expected value per $1,000 in meter and additional participants.

Wager Value per
$1000 in Meter
Value per
Additional Player
$1 3.323% 0.166%
$5 0.665% 0.033%
$10 0.332% 0.017%
$25 0.133% 0.007%

The subsequent table calculates the expected value for every $1,000 in the meter, taking into account each additional player based on their betting amount. Keep in mind that progressive and envy bonuses are fixed amounts, which means that the benefit diminishes with larger bets.

Expected value per $1,000 in meter and additional participants.

Wager Breakeven
Point
$1 $8,347.58
$5 $41,737.88
$10 $83,475.76
$25 $208,689.39

When I observed this bet on April 20, 2013, the meter registered a total of $7,817.44.