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Bet the Deck (version 2)

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Introduction

I first encountered the table game Bet the Deck at the Flamingo on December 31, 2011. However, I had come across a more basic version of it at the Golden Nugget about nine years earlier. To ensure clarity, I will refer to the original version as the Golden Nugget version version 1 while I will designate the Flamingo version as version 2. This page will focus exclusively on version 2.

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Rules

The game utilizes a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Each participant receives one individual card along with three community cards. There are three distinct types of bets available, with designated betting areas on the table where players can freely place any combination of their chosen bets. Here are the specifics of the betting options.

Bet the Deck

This particular bet is determined by the poker ranking of the player’s card in conjunction with the three community cards and includes an implied joker.

Bet the Deck

Event Pays
Five of a kind 60
Straight flush 30
Four of a kind 7
Full house 5
Flush 4
Straight 3
Three of a kind 1

Lo Ball

For a winning hand, all four cards – the player’s card and the three community cards – must be eight or lower, with aces counted as low. Winning bets will pay out at 6 to 1.

All Red/All Black

This option represents a pair of bets indicating that both the player’s card and the three community cards will either all be red or all be black. A successful bet pays out at 16 to 1.

Analysis

Bet the Deck

The table below illustrates the probability and payout for each possible outcome of the Bet the Deck wager, with the lower right cell indicating a house edge of 3.14%.

Bet the Deck

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Five of a kind 60 13 0.000048 0.002881
Straight flush 30 164 0.000606 0.018173
Four of a kind 7 2496 0.009220 0.064538
Full house 5 2808 0.010372 0.051861
Flush 4 2696 0.009958 0.039834
Straight 3 10332 0.038164 0.114493
Three of a kind 1 82368 0.304250 0.304250
Pair -1 169848 0.627382 -0.627382
Total   270725 1.000000 -0.031353

Lo Ball

This table outlines the probability and payout for every potential result of the Lo Ball bet, with the lower right cell showing a house edge of 7.02%.

Lo Ball

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Win 6 35960 0.132829 0.796971
Lose -1 234765 0.867171 -0.867171
Total   270725 1.000000 -0.070200

All Red, All Black

The next table displays the probability and payout associated with the All Red and All Black bets, where the lower right cell indicates a house advantage of 6.12%.

All Red, All Black

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Win 16 14950 0.055222 0.883553
Lose -1 255775 0.944778 -0.944778
Total   270725 1.000000 -0.061224