Bet the Deck

Introduction

I've discovered a table game called Bet the Deck at the Golden Nugget back in April 2005. This game is a straightforward variation of poker where the player wagers on the outcome of a 5-card stud hand. The poker hand consists of four community cards along with a fifth card of the player's choice. Below, you can find an image of the game rules.

Analysis

Following are the available bets.

• Eight or Lower

  The Eight or Lower wager wins if all four community cards are eights or below. Aces are considered as low. If you win, this bet pays out at 6 to 1. Your chances of winning this bet are 13.28%, with a house edge of 7.02%.

• All Red

  Opting for the All Red bet pays off if all four community cards come up red. Winning this bet yields a payout of 16 to 1. The likelihood of winning stands at 5.52%, with a house edge of 6.12%.

• All Black

  If all four community cards are black, the All Black bet wins. This bet also rewards a successful outcome with a 16 to 1 payout. The probability of a win is 5.52%, and the house edge is 6.12%.

• Ace, 2, King

  Here are three potential ranks for the card bets. Players can select one or more options, earning payouts based on the poker value of their chosen card alongside the four community cards. The accompanying table details payouts per hand, number of combinations, probabilities, and returns. The bottom right cell indicates a house edge of 9.33%.

  Ace, 2, King Bets in Bet the Deck

  Poker Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
  Five of a kind	250 to 1	1	0.000004	0.000923
  Straight flush	125 to 1	8	0.00003	0.003694
  Four of a kind	50 to 1	204	0.000754	0.037677
  Full house	20 to 1	624	0.002305	0.046098
  Straight	15 to 1	504	0.001862	0.027925
  Flush	7 to 1	2852	0.010535	0.073743
  Three of a kind	3 to 1	8448	0.031205	0.093615
  Two pair	2 to 1	15048	0.055584	0.111168
  Pair hold card	1 to 1	55440	0.204783	0.204783
  Other	Loss	187596	0.692939	-0.692939
  Total		270725	1	-0.093312

• 3, Queen

  These two ranks can be selected for card betting. Players can pick one or more cards and will be compensated based on the poker value of their chosen card and the community cards. The following table lists the payouts for each hand, along with combinations, probabilities, and returns. The house edge is shown to be 7.67% in the lower right cell.

  3, Queen Bets in Bet the Deck

  Poker Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
  Five of a kind	250 to 1	1	0.000004	0.000923
  Straight flush	125 to 1	12	0.000044	0.005541
  Four of a kind	50 to 1	204	0.000754	0.037677
  Full house	20 to 1	624	0.002305	0.046098
  Straight	15 to 1	756	0.002793	0.041888
  Flush	7 to 1	2848	0.01052	0.073639
  Three of a kind	3 to 1	8448	0.031205	0.093615
  Two pair	2 to 1	15048	0.055584	0.111168
  Pair hold card	1 to 1	55440	0.204783	0.204783
  Other	Loss	187344	0.692008	-0.692008
  Total		270725	1	-0.076676

• 4, Jack

  This section lists two available ranks for card betting. Players choose one or more ranks and will receive payouts based on the value of their selection relative to the community cards. The table below outlines the payouts by hand, the possible combinations, their probabilities, and the returns. The lower right corner indicates a house edge of 6.00%.

  4, Jack Bets in Bet the Deck

  Poker Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
  Five of a kind	250 to 1	1	0.000004	0.000923
  Straight flush	125 to 1	16	0.000059	0.007388
  Four of a kind	50 to 1	204	0.000754	0.037677
  Full house	20 to 1	624	0.002305	0.046098
  Straight	15 to 1	1008	0.003723	0.05585
  Flush	7 to 1	2844	0.010505	0.073536
  Three of a kind	3 to 1	8448	0.031205	0.093615
  Two pair	2 to 1	15048	0.055584	0.111168
  Pair hold card	1 to 1	55440	0.204783	0.204783
  Other	Loss	187092	0.691078	-0.691078
  Total		270725	1	-0.060039

• 5 to 10

  Here are six ranks available for betting on cards. Players can choose one or more options, with payouts determined by the selected card value and the four community cards. The table below provides an overview of the payouts, combinations, probabilities, and expected returns. The house edge displayed in the bottom right corner is 4.34%.

  5 to 10 Bets in Bet the Deck

  Poker Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
  Five of a kind	250 to 1	1	0.000004	0.000923
  Straight flush	125 to 1	20	0.000074	0.009234
  Four of a kind	50 to 1	204	0.000754	0.037677
  Full house	20 to 1	624	0.002305	0.046098
  Straight	15 to 1	1260	0.004654	0.069813
  Flush	7 to 1	2840	0.01049	0.073432
  Three of a kind	3 to 1	8448	0.031205	0.093615
  Two pair	2 to 1	15048	0.055584	0.111168
  Pair hold card	1 to 1	55440	0.204783	0.204783
  Other	Loss	186840	0.690147	-0.690147
  Total		270725	1	-0.043402

• Joker Bet

  The Joker Bet functions similarly to the Card Bets, but the fifth card acts as a wild joker. The accompanying table below shows the payouts per hand, combinations, probabilities, and returns. The house edge in the lower right corner is listed as 4.89%.

  Joker Bet in Bet the Deck

  Poker Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
  Five of a kind	50 to 1	13	0.000048	0.002401
  Straight flush	30 to 1	164	0.000606	0.018173
  Four of a kind	6 to 1	2496	0.00922	0.055318
  Full house	6 to 1	2808	0.010372	0.062233
  Straight	2 to 1	10332	0.038164	0.076328
  Flush	6 to 1	2696	0.009958	0.059751
  Three of a kind	1 to 1	82368	0.30425	0.30425
  All other	Loss	169848	0.627382	-0.627382
  Total		270725	1	-0.048928

Written by: Michael Shackleford