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Spread-Bet Baccarat

Introduction

During the 2018 Global Gaming Expo, I observed Spread-Bet Baccarat in the Cammegh section, which includes six side bets in baccarat pertaining to both the winning hand and the overall total.

Rules

  1. The Spread Bets are designed around the standard eight-deck version of baccarat.
  2. There are six types of Spread Bets you can place, listed as follows:
    • If the Player wins with a total between 1 to 3 — Payouts are 30 to 1
    • If the Player wins with a total of 5 or 6 — Payouts are 8 to 1
    • If the Player wins with a total of 8 or 9 — Payouts are 3 to 1
    • If the Banker wins with a total between 1 to 3 — Payouts are 30 to 1
    • If the Banker wins with a total of 5 or 6 — Payouts are 8 to 1
    • If the Banker wins with a total of 8 or 9 — Payouts are 3 to 1

Analysis

The table below details the number of winning combinations (out of 4,998,398,275,503,360) for each bet type, along with the probability of winning and anticipated returns.

Spread-Bet Baccarat Analysis

Winning
Side
Winning
Total
Pays Combinations Probability Expected
Value
Player 1 to 3 30 131,914,141,960,192 0.026391 -0.181870
Banker 1 to 3 30 141,900,480,337,920 0.028389 -0.119935
Player 5 or 6 8 435,497,172,389,888 0.087127 -0.215854
Banker 5 or 6 8 485,948,233,371,648 0.097221 -0.125013
Player 8 or 9 3 1,168,897,217,675,260 0.233854 -0.064583
Banker 8 or 9 3 1,116,764,737,675,260 0.223425 -0.106302