Understanding How Card Counting Works with the Lucky 6 Bet in Baccarat

Introduction

This article will delve into the mechanics of counting cards for the Lucky 6 Lucky 6 bet in baccarat. It's clear that a deck loaded with sixes is advantageous for players. All findings will be based on the generous 23-12 payout structure, which carries a house advantage of 11.70%.

Effect of Removal

The table below illustrates how a player's expected value changes when a card is removed from a full eight-deck shoe. Observe the significant negative impact when a 6 is taken out and the comparatively beneficial effect of removing cards ranked from 7 to 9.

Level 1 Count

In my initial level 1 count, I assign specific values to each card rank:

• 6: -3
• 7 to 9: +1
• 0 to 5: 0

The true count refers to the running total divided by the number of decks still to be dealt. A player should aim for a true count of +7 or higher.

Here are some statistics that follow the patterns established by my level 1 count.

• Probability positive count = 3.09%
• Average advantage per hand = 0.19%
• Average advantage per bet = 6.27%
• Hands per shoe = 80.1
• Average units won per shoe = 0.155

Level 2 Count

In my level 2 count, I have allocated the same values for each rank as indicated in the 'rounded' column from the card removal impact section, detailed as follows:

• 0: -2
• 1: -1
• 2: -1
• 3: -4
• 4: -1
• 5: -1
• 6: -18
• 7: +13
• 8: +12
• 9: +9

The true count is calculated by taking the running number and dividing it by the decks remaining to play. A player should look for a true count of +48 or above.

These are the statistics reflecting results from my level 2 count.

• Probability positive count = 4.13%
• Average advantage per hand = 0.29%
• Average advantage per bet = 7.00%
• Hands per shoe = 80.1
• Average units won per shoe = 0.23

Conclusion

Counting the Lucky 6 essentially offers little advantage in practice. This is particularly true under the favorable payout and shuffling conditions. The situation deteriorates significantly with a tighter payout structure or when the cut card is placed more shallowly. Counting the Dragon 7 or Panda 8 might yield better outcomes, yet it remains largely futile. There exist far more lucrative strategies available for savvy players.

External Links

Join the discussion on Lucky 6 counting techniques in my forum at Wizard of Vegas .

Written by: Michael Shackleford