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  • Chances of Winning During Different Mid-game Phases

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Chances of Winning During Different Mid-game Phases

Introduction

This section illustrates the likelihood of winning for the banker, player, and tie at different mid-game stages, utilizing a setup with eight decks.

After Two Cards

In large table baccarat, there's a delay between the exposure of the player's first two cards and that of the banker. The subsequent table outlines the odds for each potential ending based on the player's total after their first two cards, within an 8-deck game.

Winning Chances Following the Player's First Two Cards

Player
Total		 Player Win Banker Win Tie Win
0 0.278792 0.654627 0.066581
1 0.282833 0.647252 0.069915
2 0.290303 0.634207 0.07549
3 0.303386 0.615539 0.081075
4 0.322084 0.579983 0.097933
5 0.358488 0.537849 0.103663
6 0.430362 0.427801 0.141838
7 0.572657 0.285046 0.142297
8 0.810911 0.094938 0.094151
9 0.905475 0 0.094525
Total 0.446247 0.458597 0.095156

After Three Cards

The next trio of tables presents the odds for each potential outcome after four cards have been revealed (two from the player and one from the banker), within the framework of an 8-deck game.

Winning Chances for Players after Three Cards — 8 Deck Configuration

Banker
Card		 Player Total
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 0.306893 0.322192 0.33142 0.345345 0.36393 0.397013 0.478841 0.609314 0.846542 0.923724
1 0.303056 0.307637 0.327876 0.341492 0.359810 0.392935 0.479214 0.609687 0.846552 0.922813
2 0.29888 0.303544 0.313111 0.337875 0.356007 0.388382 0.4794 0.60969 0.845637 0.922813
3 0.297826 0.301239 0.309319 0.321807 0.349428 0.381111 0.481816 0.608594 0.845637 0.922813
4 0.293968 0.289011 0.288859 0.293017 0.315714 0.404964 0.481161 0.611379 0.84804 0.922813
5 0.281471 0.273613 0.270579 0.285812 0.305842 0.341949 0.478745 0.60915 0.845627 0.922813
6 0.264707 0.254029 0.262176 0.274764 0.293293 0.325144 0.318854 0.662697 0.845637 0.922813
7 0.242915 0.242836 0.248376 0.260008 0.274153 0.302702 0.318691 0.43136 0.845637 0.922813
8 0.207034 0.207542 0.213991 0.223921 0.238433 0.267405 0.320167 0.430432 0.614096 0.922813
9 0.207713 0.208903 0.214243 0.224154 0.23862 0.267514 0.319980 0.432631 0.616509 0.691264

Winning Chances for Bankers after Three Cards — 8 Deck Configuration

Banker
Card		 Player Total
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 0.61261 0.603259 0.589483 0.570967 0.538812 0.501127 0.391797 0.261131 0.077186 0
1 0.62701 0.606708 0.593152 0.574934 0.542666 0.504937 0.390304 0.259829 0.076262 0
2 0.631112 0.621728 0.596677 0.578569 0.547237 0.509478 0.390292 0.259827 0.077177 0
3 0.633433 0.625444 0.612958 0.585173 0.554372 0.504024 0.390476 0.261176 0.077177 0
4 0.645421 0.645692 0.641575 0.618955 0.530124 0.488289 0.388611 0.258021 0.077177 0
5 0.660972 0.664253 0.64884 0.628854 0.594971 0.502523 0.390839 0.260619 0.077186 0
6 0.680465 0.672742 0.659888 0.642874 0.610422 0.574009 0.337292 0.224806 0.077177 0
7 0.691696 0.686316 0.676197 0.660356 0.632850 0.599213 0.568625 0.224781 0.077177 0
8 0.744516 0.739623 0.728726 0.71421 0.685859 0.65247 0.569553 0.456697 0.077173 0
9 0.743823 0.738262 0.728303 0.713851 0.685438 0.652171 0.567151 0.454615 0.308707 0

Winning Chances for a Tie after Three Cards — 8 Deck Configuration

Banker
Card		 Player Total
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 0.080497 0.07455 0.079097 0.083687 0.097258 0.101861 0.129363 0.129555 0.076271 0.076276
1 0.069935 0.085655 0.078972 0.083574 0.097524 0.102128 0.130482 0.130484 0.077186 0.077187
2 0.070008 0.074729 0.090212 0.083556 0.096756 0.10214 0.130308 0.130484 0.077186 0.077187
3 0.068741 0.073317 0.077723 0.093020 0.096200 0.114865 0.127708 0.130231 0.077186 0.077187
4 0.060611 0.065297 0.069566 0.088028 0.154162 0.106747 0.130229 0.1306 0.074784 0.077187
5 0.057557 0.062134 0.080581 0.085333 0.099188 0.155528 0.130415 0.130231 0.077186 0.077187
6 0.054828 0.073229 0.077936 0.082361 0.096284 0.100847 0.343854 0.112498 0.077186 0.077187
7 0.06539 0.070848 0.075427 0.079636 0.092996 0.098085 0.112684 0.343859 0.077186 0.077187
8 0.04845 0.052835 0.057282 0.061868 0.075708 0.080125 0.11028 0.112871 0.308731 0.077187
9 0.048464 0.052835 0.057454 0.061995 0.075942 0.080315 0.112869 0.112755 0.074784 0.308736

After Four Cards

The following trio of tables shows the winning probabilities based on the totals after the initial four cards are dealt, using an 8-deck game model.

Probability of Banker Win

Banker
Total		 Player Total
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 0.427793 0.40973 0.391882 0.374037 0.356195 0.33765 0.231516 0.15434
1 0.495459 0.426929 0.409234 0.391336 0.373435 0.354619 0.230281 0.153216
2 0.513308 0.496004 0.42693 0.409025 0.391346 0.37253 0.23028 0.153224
3 0.525182 0.513697 0.501957 0.438649 0.4267 0.354636 0.230271 0.154128
4 0.578664 0.60282 0.627004 0.591578 0.326054 0.289715 0.230277 0.153211
5 0.638716 0.674654 0.650906 0.62815 0.604411 0.348888 0.231193 0.154125
6 0.721859 0.710369 0.698539 0.687609 0.675001 0.662331 0 0
7 0.769393 0.769718 0.769708 0.768806 0.769725 0.76881 1 0

Probability of Player Win

Banker
Total		 Player Total
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 0.427793 0.495459 0.513308 0.531152 0.548995 0.567741 0.692221 0.769393
1 0.40973 0.426929 0.496004 0.513697 0.531594 0.550413 0.69265 0.769718
2 0.391882 0.409234 0.42693 0.496004 0.513892 0.532501 0.692656 0.769708
3 0.385978 0.397289 0.409025 0.420977 0.484285 0.497143 0.693563 0.768806
4 0.368064 0.343812 0.319906 0.295919 0.331354 0.597782 0.69265 0.769725
5 0.31995 0.283814 0.248357 0.271183 0.294994 0.320049 0.691742 0.76881
6 0.24875 0.200798 0.212631 0.224459 0.236161 0.24891 0 1
7 0.15434 0.153216 0.153224 0.154128 0.153211 0.154125 0 0

Probability of Tie Win

Banker
Total		 Player Total
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 0.144414 0.094811 0.094811 0.094811 0.094811 0.094608 0.076263 0.076268
1 0.094811 0.146141 0.094762 0.094968 0.094971 0.094967 0.077068 0.077066
2 0.094811 0.094762 0.146139 0.09497 0.094762 0.094968 0.077064 0.077068
3 0.08884 0.089015 0.089018 0.140375 0.089015 0.148221 0.076166 0.077066
4 0.053272 0.053368 0.05309 0.112503 0.342591 0.112503 0.077073 0.077065
5 0.041335 0.041531 0.100738 0.100667 0.100595 0.331064 0.077065 0.077066
6 0.029391 0.088833 0.08883 0.087932 0.088838 0.088759 1 0
7 0.076268 0.077066 0.077068 0.077066 0.077065 0.077066 0 1

After Five Cards

The subsequent three tables provide the winning probabilities after the initial five cards, assuming a forced sixth card, based on the rules of an 8-deck game. An empty cell indicates that such a scenario is not feasible.

Chances of Winning for Bankers after Five Cards

Banker
Total		 Player Total
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 0.695236 0.617601 0.540571 0.463553 0.386527 0.309497 0.232147 0.154764 0.077381 0.000000
1 0.922908 0.615304 0.539289 0.462377 0.385459 0.308293 0.231249 0.153977 0.0767 0.000000
2 0.922908 0.845973 0.538302 0.461377 0.385109 0.307946 0.230743 0.153613 0.076905 0.000000
3 0.922922 0.845742 0.768763 0.460953 0.383862 0.306687 0.230225 0.153673 0.076766 0.000000
4 0.923557 0.847902 0.768986 0.690731 0.382642 0.305417 0.229293 0.152621 0.076573 0.000000
5 0.924744 0.84808 0.772494   0.614114 0.307938 0.230948 0.153838 0.076427 0.000000
6 0.923211 0.846428 0.770093       0.232063 0.154635 0.077253 0.000000
7                    
8                    
9                    

Chances of Winning for Players after Five Cards

Banker
Total		 Player Total
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 0.000000 0.305793 0.382827 0.459844 0.536872 0.61389 0.691042 0.768423 0.845811 0.92319
1 0.000000 0.077013 0.384686 0.460702 0.537624 0.614788 0.691983 0.769115 0.846393 0.923094
2 0.000000 0.077011 0.154018 0.461692 0.538869 0.615134 0.69249 0.769616 0.846178 0.92309
3 0.000000 0.076989 0.154252 0.231517 0.539219 0.616392 0.693904 0.769562 0.846655 0.923153
4 0.000000 0.076032 0.153694 0.231953 0.309183 0.617492 0.694015 0.77061 0.847738 0.923583
5 0.000000 0.075882 0.152675   0.30853 0.384204 0.692008 0.769077 0.846555 0.923586
6 0.000000 0.076783 0.153579       0.46082 0.768408 0.845958 0.9232
7                    
8                    
9                    

Chances of Winning for Ties after Five Cards

Banker
Total		 Player Total
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 0.304764 0.076605 0.076603 0.076604 0.076601 0.076613 0.076811 0.076812 0.076809 0.07681
1 0.077092 0.307683 0.076025 0.076921 0.076917 0.076919 0.076768 0.076908 0.076907 0.076906
2 0.077092 0.077016 0.30768 0.076931 0.076022 0.07692 0.076767 0.076771 0.076918 0.07691
3 0.077078 0.077269 0.076986 0.30753 0.076919 0.076921 0.07587 0.076766 0.076579 0.076847
4 0.076443 0.076065 0.07732 0.077316 0.308175 0.07709 0.076692 0.076769 0.075688 0.076417
5 0.075256 0.076039 0.074831   0.077356 0.307858 0.077044 0.077085 0.077018 0.076414
6 0.076789 0.076789 0.076329       0.307118 0.076956 0.076789 0.0768
7                    
8                    
9                    

Go back to baccarat
Go to baccarat appendix 1
Go to baccarat appendix 2
Go to baccarat appendix 4
Go to baccarat appendix 5
Go to baccarat appendix 6
Go to baccarat appendix 7

Written by: Michael Shackleford