Three Point Dolly

Introduction

The Three Point Dolly betting strategy is derived from craps. It contrasts with the conventional approach, focusing on winning bets when a seven is rolled instead of losing. Three Point Molly Implementing the Three Point Dolly strategy gives players an impressive house advantage of 0.27%, which is one of the best available in various casinos. This is not due to the nature of the betting system itself but rather because the player is placing highly strategic bets at the outset.

While I've observed players engaging in this betting style at the table, I am unsure if there is a specific name for this method. Therefore, I chose to call it the Three Point Dolly, positioning it as the darker counterpart to the Three Point Molly.

The following guidelines assume that the player is already familiar with the basic rules of craps. If you're not well-versed in these, I recommend going over the rules for the don’t pass, don’t come, and laying bets in craps before proceeding further.

Rules

Here's a brief overview of how to execute the Three Point Dolly strategy: consistently place either a don’t pass or don’t come bet with every roll until you’ve covered three numbers. Ensure each of these bets is supported by laying full odds, ideally at the maximum multiplier permitted. craps Now, let’s delve into a more comprehensive explanation of how to utilize the Three Point Dolly method.

Players must determine what one betting unit represents; for instance, it could be $10. This unit should at least match the minimum requirement for a don’t pass line bet. Each don’t pass or don’t come wager will be made using just one unit.

If the initial roll is a come out roll and you have less than three numbers covered, you should place a don’t pass bet.

If it's not a come out roll and you still have fewer than three numbers covered, go ahead and place a don’t come bet.

1. Once you have three numbers covered, refrain from placing additional bets.
2. If you made a pass or come bet on the previous roll and a point number (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10) has been rolled, ensure to back it up by laying the odds, aiming for the maximum allowed.
3. Continue following these four steps until a seven-out occurs, signaling the conclusion of your betting session.
4. To assess the effectiveness of the Three Point Dolly, I simulated over 41 billion rounds of gameplay using a computer program. I based my analysis on tables permitting 3-4-5x odds, which means players can always lay 6x their don’t pass or don’t come bets. Below are some session statistics, defined as playing until the shooter rolls a seven-out.
5. The spoiler section below presents the raw data showing the frequency of each net gain during the simulation.

Analysis

The graph below illustrates the probability of the most typical outcomes, ranging from a loss of 50 to a gain of 25 units.

• Average units bet: 30.313926
• Averages units won: -0.083150
• Ratio money won to money bet = -0.002743
• Average dice rolls = 8.525547
• Probability session win = 0.679841
• Average units won, given a win = 7.393417
• Probability session loss = 0.299207
• Average units lost, given a loss = 17.076796
• Probability session push = 0.020952

The table below compares various statistical outcomes from the Three Point Molly and Three Point Dolly strategies.

Analyzing the Differences Between Three Point Molly and Three Point Dolly

Comparison to Three Point Molly

Check out my video discussing the Three Point Dolly strategy.

Video

The true advantage of the Three Point Dolly lies not in its methodology but in the fact that it operates on bets with a low house edge. Don’t pass and come bets have a 1.36% house edge, whereas all odds bets feature a 0.00% house edge. When averaged, this results in an overall house edge of 0.27%. In most casinos, these are the most favorable odds available.

Conclusion

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External Links

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Written by: Michael Shackleford